The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 27, 2023
This weekend Jeff Sommer discussed a DFA research paper on market timing; both are well worth your time to read. The broad strokes are: Market timing is extremely difficult, very few people (if any) do it consistently well. Not only are the odds stacked against you, but very often systems that have successfully timed the market have been simply lucky, and do not succeed in out-of-sample tests.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 29, 2023
Ladies and gentlemen, this is the final post I will be publishing at The Reformed Broker. After today the site will be inactive, forever. I began this blog in November 2008 without any idea where it would take me. I had a negative net worth, was working at a dead-end brokerage firm job and absolutely no career prospects whatsoever – a washed up stock broker at 31 years old in the middle of a global financial crisis.
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Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 30, 2023
California-based accounting firm Windes will leverage Integrated Partners’ platform to provide more comprehensive services for complex clients through a new wealth management practice.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 28, 2023
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3-month average of July, August and September closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Continued to Trend Upward in September The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.
Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker
Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 26, 2023
Top clicks this week Cullen Roche, "The worst narrative in finance is this idea that stocks generate 10%+." (disciplinefunds.com) Why you should believe in stocks for the long run. (awealthofcommonsense.com) THIS is the most important decision you will make in life. (safalniveshak.com) The 10 best books of 2023 including 'The Bathysphere Book: Effects of the Luminous Ocean Depths,’ by Brad Fox.
The Big Picture
DECEMBER 1, 2023
The chart above shows that 84% of CEOs are forecasting a recession over the next 12 months, 69% of Consumers saying the same thing, with the yield curve predicting a 61% chance of a contraction. The problem is those sets of forecasts is already 2 months old, dated October 3, 2023. It was before the very encouraging CPI, Unemployment, and GDP data releases.
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Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 29, 2023
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey — Mortgage applications increased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 24, 2023. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of the Thanksgiving holiday.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 26, 2023
Markets Stock picking is difficult because it requires a number of different skills. (humbledollar.com) Why it's hard for outsiders to know what's going on inside a company. (compounderspod.substack.com) Crypto Who is left standing amid the rubble of the crypto industry? (ft.com) A review of the biggest crypto-related court cases in 2023. (blockworks.co) Finance How Microsoft ($MSFT) came out on top in the OpenAI fiasco.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 25, 2023
This week, we speak with Peter Atwater, president of Financial Insyghts and an adjunct professor at William & Mary and the University of Delaware. He studies the impact of changing confidence on consumer decision-making and advises investors, businesses and policymakers. He coined the term “K-shaped recovery” to describe the pandemic’s effects on the economy.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 29, 2023
The last half-decade was not good to these funds.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 30, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in October to New High; Up 6.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: On a year-over-year basis, the National FMHPI was up 6.0% in October , from up 5.1% YoY in September. The YoY increase peaked at 19.1% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% in April 2023.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 29, 2023
Podcasts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with Tiffany Aliche, author of the new book "Made Whole: The Practical Guide to Reaching Your Financial Goals." (morningstar.com) Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with Mike Moran, managing director and pension strategist for Goldman Sachs ($GS) about the state of retirement preparedness. (morningstar.com) Same As Ever Lessons learned from Morgan Housel's new book "Same As Ever: Timeless Lesson on Wealth, Greed and Happiness.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 30, 2023
My morning train WFH reads: • Owners Keep Zombie Malls Alive Even When Towns Want to Pull the Plug : Aging malls often take a long time to expire, but they can remain valuable assets. ( Wall Street Journal ) • A strange, short journey through Shein’s world : The fast fashion brand has been trying to drop the secrecy around its business model and supply chain.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 29, 2023
McHale succeeds Mark Seffinger, who is leaving the firm; he'll report to Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer Brent Simonich.
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Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 30, 2023
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through October 2023. CPI Shelter was up 6.7% year-over-year in October, down from 7.1% in September, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023. Housing (PCE) was up 6.9% YoY in October , down from 7.2% in September, and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 30, 2023
Charlie Munger Jason Zweig, "More than almost anyone I’ve ever known, Munger also possessed what philosophers call epistemic humility: a profound sense of how little anyone can know and how important it is to open and change your mind." (wsj.com) Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A) shareholders need to closely contemplate a post-Buffett era. (morningstar.com) Some more Charlie Munger quotes including 'In my whole life, I have known no wise people who didn’t read all the time — none, zero.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 29, 2023
The traditional way that most financial planning has been offered was for an advisor to create "The Plan": a comprehensive document outlining a client's financial strategy that was delivered either on a one-time basis or updated annually. However, as the industry has shifted towards an ongoing relationship model, advisors have felt compelled to demonstrate consistent value to their clients throughout the year.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 30, 2023
As situations change, Jeff Nauta has found that the technology has to sometimes do the same at $528 million AUM Henrickson Nauta Wealth Advisors.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 29, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie Serious Delinquencies in October: Single Family Declined, Multi-Family Increased Brief excerpt: Single-family serious delinquencies continued to decline in October, however, multi-family serious delinquencies increased. Freddie Mac reports that multi-family delinquencies increased to 0.26% in October, up from 0.15% in October 2022.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 27, 2023
Strategy Why market timing is so difficult. (ritholtz.com) Diversification is easy in theory, difficult in practice. (pictureperfectportfolios.com) Amazon Amazon ($AMZN) is now the biggest private delivery company in the U.S. (wsj.com) Amazon ($AMZN) no longer inspires fear in the health care space. (bloomberg.com) Finance Why you should expect more bank consolidation.
Nerd's Eye View
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments this week in the case of SEC v. Jarkesy, which in a narrow sense focuses on the SEC's use of in-house Administrative Law Judges to hear securities law cases rather than traditional Federal jury trials, but in a broader sense could call into question the SEC's (and other government agencies') authority to make rules and enforce laws in
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 28, 2023
Stick to the basics.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Calculated Risk
DECEMBER 1, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.0% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 6.9% below recent peak Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the September Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 69% above the bubble peak in 2006.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 29, 2023
Strategy It can take awhile for investors to come around to a bull market. (ritholtz.com) It's hard to be a pessimistic long-term investor. (blog.validea.com) Rates Positive real interest rates give bond investors a cushion. (alphaarchitect.com) Is the top finally in for mortgate rates? (mortgagenewsdaily.com) Crypto Does Binance really have a second life, post-indictment?
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 27, 2023
My back-to-work morning reads: • How to Tweak Your Investments for a More Normal Market : Convert a traditional IRA to a Roth IRA; Higher interest rates means cash gets a respectable yield; Revisit concentrated positions; consider adding international stocks; buy longer-dated Treasuries. ( Barron’s ) • Economists May Have Been Flying Blind All Along : Declining response rates to official surveys raise the possibility that government and central bank officials have been making decisions bas
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 26, 2023
It was clear prior to the pandemic investors felt strongly that real estate was a less correlated asset class in portfolios.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 27, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales decrease to 679,000 Annual Rate in October Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 679 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. The next graph shows new home sales for 2022 and 2023 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 27, 2023
Podcast Brendan Frazier talks with Shaun Erickson who is Chief Planning Officer at Single Point Partners. (wiredplanning.com) Ren Makino and Yanley Espinal talk philanthropy with Greg Ratliff, Vice President at Rockefeller Philanthropy Advisors. (docs.google.com) The Smoke Show Why advisers need to keep up on changes in the technology space. (thereformedbroker.com) You can sign up for the Episode 2 of the Smoke Show featuring Flourish Cash here.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 27, 2023
One of the main goals of financial advisors who market themselves is to build a foundation of trust with their prospective clients so that they feel comfortable in discussing often-sensitive financial topics and ultimately acting on the advisor's recommendations. The challenge, though, is that advisors usually have only a short amount of time to build this trust, and while advisors can use different channels (e.g., their websites, newsletters, and social media) to demonstrate their expertise, th
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 30, 2023
While the technology will be used to identify patterns in large data sets, it will not be used to automatically initiate any trading on its own.
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