Sat.Nov 16, 2024 - Fri.Nov 22, 2024

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When The 4% Rule Isn't 4%

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

Bill Bengen, known for deriving the 4% rule sat for a podcast with Sam Dogen , a well known FIRE proponent and blogger. The 4% rule is generally the accepted standard for a safe withdrawal rate in retirement to ensure the assets last for 30 years. Listen to the podcast. Their conversation was very illuminating. Get ready to be very surprised. Bengen retired as a financial advisor in 2013 but he also considers himself a researcher.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (November 23–24)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that amidst a rare change in leadership at Charles Schwab, the outgoing and incoming CEOs hinted at relatively minor changes during remarks for advisors at its annual IMPACT conference this week, including an increased focus on lending services for high-net-worth clients and a desire to expand direct access to cryptoassets.

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Coming March 18: “How Not To Invest”

The Big Picture

Well, that was a lot more fun than I expected! I submitted the final manuscript for my new book, How Not to Invest , last week. The final edit will involve some back-and-forth, but the writing is finished. I recall “ Bailout Nation ” as more of a slog, in part because so much of it happened in real-time. I constantly rewrote entire chapters as various companies blew up.

Investing 204
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Friday links: terrible speeches

Abnormal Returns

Crypto Leverage and Bitcoin are a potent, and dangerous, mix. (sherwood.news) Charles Schwab ($SCHW) is open to providing customer crypto access. (thinkadvisor.com) Technology Amazon ($AMZN) is investing another $4 billion into Anthropic. (cnbc.com) Just how important is Chrome to Google ($GOOGL)? (spyglass.org) Venture capital A deep dive into the strategy of big OpenAI investor Thrive Capital.

Media 147
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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How many people work for the U.S. federal government?

Calculated Risk

The new administration is talking about cutting the number of federal government employees. This raises the question of how many people are employed by the Federal government? The following data is from the BLS and does not include military personnel. The first graph shows total government employment (Federal, State and Local). Click on graph for larger image.

More Trending

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MiB: Corey Hoffstein on Return Stacking  

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with Corey Hoffstein, CEO and CIO of Newfound Research. Corey pioneered the concept of ‘return stacking’ and is one of the masterminds behind the Return Stacked ETF Suite , which manages roughly $750 million across five ETFs. Corey’s work has been published in the Journal of Indexing and the Journal of Alternative Investments.

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Personal finance links: mostly positive markets

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Sam Dogen talks the 4% rule with Bill Bengen. (sites.libsyn.com) Frazer Rice talks with Christine Benz author of "How to Retire" (podcasts.apple.com) Carl Richards talks money and more with journalist Kara Swisher. (50fires.com) Retirement Gray divorce can have a huge effect on your retirement. (nytimes.com) Taxes in retirement only get more complicated.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Increased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 1.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 15, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Sales 119
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Seeking Best Execution: Understanding The SEC’s Expectations For Advisors To Deliver Best Outcomes For Clients

Nerd's Eye View

Investment advisers are fiduciaries that owe a duty of care and loyalty to their clients. One component of this duty of care is an obligation to seek best execution of client securities transactions. While this requirement might sound relatively straightforward, the lack of a single definition for what this duty actually requires can make it challenging for advisers seeking to understand precisely what it means to comply with this responsibility.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Climate Funds on Track for First Year of Outflows

Wealth Management

Morningstar analysts attribute the outflows to high financing costs and a concern the companies included in these funds might be penalized for transitioning to new sources of energy faster than the rest of the world.

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Thursday links: a vicious cycle

Abnormal Returns

Strategy To call an end to this, or any, bull market you need a negative catalyst, or two. (carsongroup.com) U.S.-based investors are finding it hard to keep the global diversification faith. (economist.com) Why John Rekenthaler was an important voice in financial writing for so long. (morningstar.com) Finance Will private credit default recovery rates best bank loans or high yield bonds?

Food 147
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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October

Calculated Risk

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Grew 3.4% in October; First Year-Over-Year Gain Since July 2021 Existing-home sales rose in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales improved in all four major U.S. regions. Year-over-year, sales elevated in three regions but were unchanged in the Northeast. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – expanded 3.4% from September to a seasonally adjusted annua

Sales 113
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#FASuccess Ep 412: 3X’ing The Business With No More Than 50 Great Clients By Hyperfocusing On Who You Can Add The Most Value For, With Anjali Jariwala

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 412th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Anjali Jariwala. Anjali is the Founder of FIT Advisors, an RIA based in Torrance, California (but works virtually with clients nationwide) and oversees $65 million in assets under management for 45 client households. What's unique about Anjali, though, is how she has tripled her annual revenue from $250,000 to $750,000 during the past 6 years, while only adding a net of 10 cli

Clients 130
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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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What Top Financial Professionals Are Doing to Succeed

Advisor Perspectives

Top financial professionals have a clear understanding of their unique strengths and are able to convey them to clients. To set yourself up for success, distinguish yourself in the market through specialized expertise and tailored client services.

Clients 113
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Tuesday links: a penchant for risk

Abnormal Returns

Markets The U.S. stock market is constantly doubted, evidence to the contrary. (awealthofcommonsense.com) You can't have a bubble without this group of investors. (behaviouralinvestment.com) Finance Portfolio trading is a growing force in credit markets. (ft.com) Robinhood ($HOOD) is buying TradePMR. (investmentnews.com) ETFs The filing for the SSGA Bridgewater All Weather ETF is live.

Media 147
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Long Beach Port Traffic Surges to Record in October; Importers Rushing to Beat Tariffs?

Calculated Risk

I'll have more on port traffic once Los Angeles releases their data for October. From the Port of Long Beach: Port of Long Beach Reaches All-Time Record in October The Port of Long Beach moved nearly 1 million cargo containers in October, achieving its strongest month in its 113-year history, driven by brisk demand for holiday goods and delayed containership arrivals caused by a nearby traffic incident and fire that affected some terminal operations at the end of September.

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Nine Investment Must Reads for This Week (Nov. 19, 2024)

Wealth Management

Several of the largest equity index fund managers have extended proxy voting to mutual fund and ETF shareholders, reports Pensions & Investments. Goldman Sachs disclosed $710 million in Bitcoin ETF holdings in its latest 13F filing. These are among the investment must reads we found this week for wealth advisors.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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CB Leading Economic Index: Continues to Fall in October

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in October to its lowest level since March 2016. The index fell 0.4% from the previous month to 99.5, marking its eighth consecutive monthly decline.

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Research links: interrupted compounding

Abnormal Returns

Bonds Shorting low quality credit is not the same as shorting equities. (mailchi.mp) What does the VIX tell us about corporate bond spreads? (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Bond and equity ETF liquidity is different. (papers.ssrn.com) Private credit Is private credit in a bubble? (alphaarchitect.com) Why publicly traded vehicles for private credit don't work as well.

Assets 147
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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory Up 25.9% YoY

Calculated Risk

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 29.2% YoY, but still down 21.1% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 25.9% YoY.

Sales 106
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Artificial Intelligence Can Be a Superpower for Financial Advisors

Wealth Management

New tools automate the process of personalizing service and communications to improve the advisor-client relationship.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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The Miracle of U.S. Equities

A Wealth of Common Sense

The best compliment I can offer any financial writer: I wish I had written that. I’ve had that thought about John Rekenthaler’s work numerous times over the years. I’ve always admired his common sense, straight-shooter approach to investment writing. Last week, Rekenthaler penned his farewell column for Morningstar. Instead of providing a retrospective on his own career, he wrote an ode to the U.S. stock.

Investing 101
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Adviser links: a unique experience

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Daniel Crosby talks with Christina Lynn about Motivational Interviewing in order to enhance the work of wealth advisors. (standarddeviationspod.com) Brendan Frazier talks with Doug and Heather Boneparth about the keys to success for a couple. (podcasts.apple.com) Bogumil Baranowski talks with Justin Castelli about living an authentic life. (justincastelli.io) Taxes Some speculation on what is next for the TCJA.

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NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October

Calculated Risk

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October Excerpt: As expected, existing home sales were up year-over-year for the first time since 2021. This was a combination of weak sales in October last year and lower mortgage rates in August and September when contracts were signed (Existing home sales are reported at closing).

Sales 103
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Estate Planning Services Are Becoming Table Stakes

Wealth Management

Clients increasingly view estate planning as a core element of holistic wealth management, not just a one-time task, according to a survey from online estate planning platform Vanilla.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Placing Guardrails on Your Portfolio

A Wealth of Common Sense

People are terrible at self-regulation and self-awareness when it comes to eating. One study asked people how much bread they ate after leaving an Italian restaurant. Nearly one-third of the diners couldn’t recall how much they had. And 12% of the people who ate bread denied having eaten any at all. When asked how much food they consumed in a meal, people of average weight assume they’ve eaten 20% less than th.

Portfolio 101
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Three Things I Think I Think – Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Bitcoin

Discipline Funds

Here is one thing I think I am thinking about three times. 1) The money supply as the cost of capital. In a recent interview MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor was criticizing Warren Buffett’s cash management. Buffett has a colossal cash hoard of $325B sitting in T-Bills earning 4.5%. Saylor, on the other hand, invests his cash in Bitcoin. He justifies this “cash management” by arguing that his “cost of capital” is 15%.

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Lawler: Observations Ahead of the December FOMC Meeting

Calculated Risk

From housing economist Tom Lawler: According to CME FedWatch , the “market-based” probability that the FOMC will cut its federal funds rate target by 25 bp at its December meeting is about 59%. Folks will also play close attention to the release of the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) from meeting participants. Below is a table showing some of the key projections from the last four SEPs.

Economics 103