Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

30 years ago, when financial plans relied mainly on constant investment return projections derived from straight-line appreciation and time-value of money calculations, financial advisors began acknowledging and accounting for the variable and uncertain nature of investment returns. And by turning to tools that incorporated historical or Monte Carlo simulations, advisors were able to examine the potential impact of sequence-of-return risk on an investor's portfolio, modeling those risks across h

Retirement 246

Retirement Planning Financial Planning Risk Tolerance 246

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

The South and Midwest dominate the top of the rankings.

Retirement 328

Retirement 328

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

The September Federal Reserve meeting is behind us we still have November and December ahead of us. Markets are nervous expecting another hike before years over before two cuts in 2024. My advice: ignore those expectations as they have been wildly inaccurate over the past few years; they have been mostly inaccurate over the past decade. When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else.

Economics 324

Economics Financial Market Marketing Marketing 324

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.33% in August The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 6 basis points from 0.39% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.33% as of August 31, 2023. According to MBA’s estimate, 165,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.

Portfolio 321

Portfolio Planning Numbers 321

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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

Sales

The Reformed Broker

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Jeremy Grantham, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss being the “Bubble Historian”, Inflation, Modern Valuations, the Four most Dangerous Words, Real Estate, Impact Investing, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

Valuation 306

Valuation Investing Investments Marketing 306

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

To an outsider, advisor Cary Carbonaro looked like a strong, successful woman. But behind closed doors, she faced physical, mental and verbal abuse on a daily basis in a toxic relationship.

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Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 5.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 15, 2023. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 5.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Sales 316

Sales Marketing Marketing 316

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 21, 2023

Markets The credit markets are very different than they were in 2009. (semafor.com) Despite a slowdown, the warehouse industry is raising rents. (wsj.com) IPOs Shopify ($SHOP) is a winner in the Klayvio ($KVYO) IPO. (theinformation.com) Is the IPO window really that open? (ft.com) Books A review of "The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions" by Victor Haghani and James White.

Financial Advising 293

Financial Advising Media Economy Numbers 293

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

Wherever there's change, there's also opportunity.

Taxes 321

Taxes 321

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 21, 2023

My morning train WFH reads: • Peek Inside America’s Largest Privately Owned Company : Cargill’s business model has worked for 158 years. Follow the money and you’ll see it ain’t broken yet. ( Bloomberg ) • Indexing Is Still the Best Bet for Investors : History shows that even in ‘narrow’ markets, actively managed funds don’t do as well over the long term. ( Wall Street Journal ) see also You Might Be Paying Too Much for That Index Fund : Push toward zero-cost ETFs nears the finish line. ( Wall S

Sales 263

Sales Management Retail Assets 263

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It's the time of year to give our close process some TLC. Join us in this one hour webinar where we discuss how to adopt leading practices and infuse technology into the month-end close process to improve our experience and increase our productivity during month-end and quarter-end close. Learning Objectives: This course's objective is to understand how the month-end close can be improved with automation and adoption of leading practices.

Accounting

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index Sees Softening Business Conditions in August The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) eased modestly in August, with a score of 48.1 , marking the eleventh consecutive month of essentially flat billings at architecture firms.

Investments 312

Investments Investing Clients 312

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

Also on the site The question with emerging market equities is if, not when. (abnormalreturns.com) The return on hassle is a real thing. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week TIPS are on sale. (morningstar.com) Bull markets have four distinct stages. (ritholtz.com) The rise in real interest rates is stunning. (econbrowser.com) How retirement can open you up to new possibilities.

Math 293

Math Retirement Sales Marketing 293

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

The Massachusetts Supreme Court ruling against the online trading app last month could create “more breathing room” for other states to follow through on their own fiduciary regulations.

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Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Investment Adviser Association has petitioned the SEC to ask the regulator to change how it defines a small adviser from one with less than $25 million under management to a firm with 100 or fewer employees. The group argued that this change would help more small firms, which tend not to have the same staffing and resources compared to their larger counterparts, as the

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Clients Taxes Numbers 246

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

Assets

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

From WardsAuto: September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Strong Year-Over-Year Gain Despite Strike Impact (pay content). Brief excerpt: The possibility in September that other automakers will benefit much from buyers defecting from the Detroit 3 brands is negligible. The vehicles currently impacted by shutdowns either are products with high brand loyalty, in segments dominated by the three strike-impacted manufacturers or have plenty of inventory. emphasis added Click on graph for larger i

Sales 302

Sales Manufacturing Marketing Marketing 302

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Trend following Trend following ignore narratives. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) How trend following can help diversify a portfolio. (priceactionlab.com) ESG Green investing strategies should be lower risk. (alphaarchitect.com) ESG leaders have been outperforming the market. (bloomberg.com) Behavior How scarcity affects decision making. (sciencedaily.com) The marshmallow effect and investment performance.

Banking 284

Banking Portfolio Investing Investments 284

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

Cannabis ETFs were among those posting the worst returns over the last three years.

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Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 21, 2023

Regardless of the size of a financial advisory firm, clients are a constant necessity to sustain a profitable business. And while some form of advertising is how firms have traditionally attracted clients, some advisors have asked if not actively marketing themselves can be a viable option, where new clients find their way to the advisor through a referral network who vouches for the good service they provide.

Advertising 246

Advertising Clients Communication Financial Advisor 246

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

Management

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Recently hospitalizations have tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are increasing, but far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.

Numbers 294

Numbers 294

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

Finance Goldman Sachs ($GS) want to sell HNW clients a piece of a sports franchise. (frontofficesports.com) Why seed stage valuations haven't dropped as much as you would think. (hunterwalk.com) Fund management How securities lending works. (morningstar.com) A new ETF looks to generate income from selling daily options. (reuters.com) Apple Insights from this week's big Apple event.

Financial Advising 283

Financial Advising Valuation Economy Economics 283

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

One way to mitigate the impact of a failed exchange is “tax straddling,” which involves timing the exchange so the sale falls in one tax year and the receipt of proceeds in the following year.

Taxes 317

Taxes Sales 317

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

30 years ago, when financial plans relied mainly on constant investment return projections derived from straight-line appreciation and time-value of money calculations, financial advisors began acknowledging and accounting for the variable and uncertain nature of investment returns. And by turning to tools that incorporated historical or Monte Carlo simulations, advisors were able to examine the potential impact of sequence-of-return risk on an investor's portfolio, modeling those risks across h

Financial Planning 246

Financial Planning Risk Tolerance Retirement Planning Planning 246

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

Accounting

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 17, 2023

Most analysts expect there will be no change to FOMC policy at this meeting, keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 5‑1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. On the meeting this week from BofA: " We expect the Fed to stay on hold at the September FOMC meeting , consistent with recent Fed communications and current market pricing. Recent data should leave the Fed encouraged by ongoing disinflation but concerned about re-acceleration in inflation because of the strength in activity.

Banking 288

Banking Economics Economy Communication 288

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 20, 2023

Home ownership How to make the math behind home ownership work (or not). (morningstar.com) What happened in 1990 to drive real housing prices higher? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Some 40% of under-30-year-old home buyers get help from their family. (redfin.com) Investing Jeffrey K. Actor, "It’s incredibly easy to underperform by chasing dreams." (humbledollar.com) Trying to make up for past investing mistakes by taking on more risk is dangerous.

Math 274

Math Taxes Portfolio Investing 274

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

Reject the notion that team members should leave their personal lives behind when they walk through the office door.

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Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

When an advisor runs their own solo advisory firm, their capacity to meet with current and prospective clients is limited to the extent that they are also responsible for all of the non-client-facing tasks of running their firm. Which may not be a serious limitation when they are just starting out and don’t have a lot of clients to serve, but as the firm grows, they will eventually run out of time available for working with clients – at which point, it becomes necessary to decide whe

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Clients Planning Financial Planning 246

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

Accounting

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 18, 2023

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of September 15th, inventory was at 519 thousand (7-day average), compared to 509 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is up 5.7%. And inventory is up 27.9% from the seasonal bottom 22 weeks ago.

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Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

Rates Higher for longer, is the consensus. (wsj.com) Not surprisingly, 30-year mortgage rates are at 23-year highs. (mortgagenewsdaily.com) Who is buying Treasuries at these yields? (ft.com) Bond investors are being given an opportunity to lock in 2% real yields. (capitalspectator.com) Dumb Money There are no heroes in 'Dumb Money.' (morningstar.com) The so-called bad guys in 'Dumb Money' are stronger than ever.

Financial Advising 261

Financial Advising Startup Economy Media 261

Wealth Management

SEPTEMBER 22, 2023

With NIL deals becoming more and more prevalent, student-athletes need trusted guidance on what the opportunities are and ultimately what to do based on their unique situations.

Financial Planning 312

Financial Planning Planning 312

Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Welcome back to the 351st episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Jessica Polito. Jessica is the Founder and Principal for Turkey Hill Management, a mergers & acquisitions consulting firm that assists financial advisors with the sale, acquisition, integration, or merger of their firms. What's unique about Jessica, though, is how she has built a practice helping financial advisors and their firms navigate the intricacies of buying, selling, or merging

Financial Advisor 236

Financial Advisor Fee Only Sales Clients 236

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Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

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