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30 years ago, when financial plans relied mainly on constant investment return projections derived from straight-line appreciation and time-value of money calculations, financial advisors began acknowledging and accounting for the variable and uncertain nature of investment returns. And by turning to tools that incorporated historical or Monte Carlo simulations, advisors were able to examine the potential impact of sequence-of-return risk on an investor's portfolio, modeling those risks across h
The September Federal Reserve meeting is behind us we still have November and December ahead of us. Markets are nervous expecting another hike before years over before two cuts in 2024. My advice: ignore those expectations as they have been wildly inaccurate over the past few years; they have been mostly inaccurate over the past decade. When it comes to forecasting economic outcomes, the Fed is no better or worse than anybody else.
From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Decreases to 0.33% in August The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance decreased by 6 basis points from 0.39% of servicers’ portfolio volume in the prior month to 0.33% as of August 31, 2023. According to MBA’s estimate, 165,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.
Finance teams are drowning in data—but is it actually helping them spend smarter? Without the right approach, excess spending, inefficiencies, and missed opportunities continue to drain profitability. While analytics offers powerful insights, financial intelligence requires more than just numbers—it takes the right blend of automation, strategy, and human expertise.
Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Jeremy Grantham, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss being the “Bubble Historian”, Inflation, Modern Valuations, the Four most Dangerous Words, Real Estate, Impact Investing, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!
To an outsider, advisor Cary Carbonaro looked like a strong, successful woman. But behind closed doors, she faced physical, mental and verbal abuse on a daily basis in a toxic relationship.
This week, we speak with Elizabeth Burton , managing director and client investment strategist at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. She advises institutional clients on investment strategies and portfolio objectives, working alongside global client advisers and product strategists across public and private markets. Previously, she was CIO at the Employees’ Retirement System of the State of Hawaii, and managing director in the quantitative strategies group at the Maryland State Retirement Age
This week, we speak with Elizabeth Burton , managing director and client investment strategist at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. She advises institutional clients on investment strategies and portfolio objectives, working alongside global client advisers and product strategists across public and private markets. Previously, she was CIO at the Employees’ Retirement System of the State of Hawaii, and managing director in the quantitative strategies group at the Maryland State Retirement Age
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 5.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 15, 2023. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 5.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Markets The credit markets are very different than they were in 2009. (semafor.com) Despite a slowdown, the warehouse industry is raising rents. (wsj.com) IPOs Shopify ($SHOP) is a winner in the Klayvio ($KVYO) IPO. (theinformation.com) Is the IPO window really that open? (ft.com) Books A review of "The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions" by Victor Haghani and James White.
My morning train WFH reads: • Peek Inside America’s Largest Privately Owned Company : Cargill’s business model has worked for 158 years. Follow the money and you’ll see it ain’t broken yet. ( Bloomberg ) • Indexing Is Still the Best Bet for Investors : History shows that even in ‘narrow’ markets, actively managed funds don’t do as well over the long term. ( Wall Street Journal ) see also You Might Be Paying Too Much for That Index Fund : Push toward zero-cost ETFs nears the finish line. ( Wall S
Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index Sees Softening Business Conditions in August The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) eased modestly in August, with a score of 48.1 , marking the eleventh consecutive month of essentially flat billings at architecture firms.
Also on the site The question with emerging market equities is if, not when. (abnormalreturns.com) The return on hassle is a real thing. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week TIPS are on sale. (morningstar.com) Bull markets have four distinct stages. (ritholtz.com) The rise in real interest rates is stunning. (econbrowser.com) How retirement can open you up to new possibilities.
The Massachusetts Supreme Court ruling against the online trading app last month could create “more breathing room” for other states to follow through on their own fiduciary regulations.
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Investment Adviser Association has petitioned the SEC to ask the regulator to change how it defines a small adviser from one with less than $25 million under management to a firm with 100 or fewer employees. The group argued that this change would help more small firms, which tend not to have the same staffing and resources compared to their larger counterparts, as the
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
From WardsAuto: September U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Heading for Strong Year-Over-Year Gain Despite Strike Impact (pay content). Brief excerpt: The possibility in September that other automakers will benefit much from buyers defecting from the Detroit 3 brands is negligible. The vehicles currently impacted by shutdowns either are products with high brand loyalty, in segments dominated by the three strike-impacted manufacturers or have plenty of inventory. emphasis added Click on graph for larger i
Trend following Trend following ignore narratives. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) How trend following can help diversify a portfolio. (priceactionlab.com) ESG Green investing strategies should be lower risk. (alphaarchitect.com) ESG leaders have been outperforming the market. (bloomberg.com) Behavior How scarcity affects decision making. (sciencedaily.com) The marshmallow effect and investment performance.
Regardless of the size of a financial advisory firm, clients are a constant necessity to sustain a profitable business. And while some form of advertising is how firms have traditionally attracted clients, some advisors have asked if not actively marketing themselves can be a viable option, where new clients find their way to the advisor through a referral network who vouches for the good service they provide.
Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 3 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent two weeks will be revised significantly. Recently hospitalizations have tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023. Hospitalizations are increasing, but far below the peak of 150,000 in January 2022.
Finance Goldman Sachs ($GS) want to sell HNW clients a piece of a sports franchise. (frontofficesports.com) Why seed stage valuations haven't dropped as much as you would think. (hunterwalk.com) Fund management How securities lending works. (morningstar.com) A new ETF looks to generate income from selling daily options. (reuters.com) Apple Insights from this week's big Apple event.
One way to mitigate the impact of a failed exchange is “tax straddling,” which involves timing the exchange so the sale falls in one tax year and the receipt of proceeds in the following year.
30 years ago, when financial plans relied mainly on constant investment return projections derived from straight-line appreciation and time-value of money calculations, financial advisors began acknowledging and accounting for the variable and uncertain nature of investment returns. And by turning to tools that incorporated historical or Monte Carlo simulations, advisors were able to examine the potential impact of sequence-of-return risk on an investor's portfolio, modeling those risks across h
Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Most analysts expect there will be no change to FOMC policy at this meeting, keeping the target range for the federal funds rate at 5‑1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. On the meeting this week from BofA: " We expect the Fed to stay on hold at the September FOMC meeting , consistent with recent Fed communications and current market pricing. Recent data should leave the Fed encouraged by ongoing disinflation but concerned about re-acceleration in inflation because of the strength in activity.
Home ownership How to make the math behind home ownership work (or not). (morningstar.com) What happened in 1990 to drive real housing prices higher? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Some 40% of under-30-year-old home buyers get help from their family. (redfin.com) Investing Jeffrey K. Actor, "It’s incredibly easy to underperform by chasing dreams." (humbledollar.com) Trying to make up for past investing mistakes by taking on more risk is dangerous.
When an advisor runs their own solo advisory firm, their capacity to meet with current and prospective clients is limited to the extent that they are also responsible for all of the non-client-facing tasks of running their firm. Which may not be a serious limitation when they are just starting out and don’t have a lot of clients to serve, but as the firm grows, they will eventually run out of time available for working with clients – at which point, it becomes necessary to decide whe
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.9% week-over-week. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of September 15th, inventory was at 519 thousand (7-day average), compared to 509 thousand the prior week. Year-to-date, inventory is up 5.7%. And inventory is up 27.9% from the seasonal bottom 22 weeks ago.
Rates Higher for longer, is the consensus. (wsj.com) Not surprisingly, 30-year mortgage rates are at 23-year highs. (mortgagenewsdaily.com) Who is buying Treasuries at these yields? (ft.com) Bond investors are being given an opportunity to lock in 2% real yields. (capitalspectator.com) Dumb Money There are no heroes in 'Dumb Money.' (morningstar.com) The so-called bad guys in 'Dumb Money' are stronger than ever.
With NIL deals becoming more and more prevalent, student-athletes need trusted guidance on what the opportunities are and ultimately what to do based on their unique situations.
Welcome back to the 351st episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Jessica Polito. Jessica is the Founder and Principal for Turkey Hill Management, a mergers & acquisitions consulting firm that assists financial advisors with the sale, acquisition, integration, or merger of their firms. What's unique about Jessica, though, is how she has built a practice helping financial advisors and their firms navigate the intricacies of buying, selling, or merging
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
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