Sat.Feb 10, 2024 - Fri.Feb 16, 2024

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 9, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 362
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The DOL’s Independent Contractor Rule and the Law of Unintended Consequences

Wealth Management

The final impact of the DOL rule on independent contractors has yet to be determined for the financial advisory industry.

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Research links: simplistic thinking

Abnormal Returns

Private equity What does the research say about private equity performance? (morningstar.com) Why it's so hard to compare public and private investments. (caia.org) Fund management How should we assess 'pedigree' when it comes to investment managers? (investmentecosystem.com) Why hedge funds are happy with higher short term interest rates. (bloomberg.com) Quant stuff Researchers are now unleashing ChatGPT on stock selection models.

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CPI Shelter Measures: 6-12 Month Lag

The Big Picture

Last month, I mentioned that CPI inflation measures were based on lagging BLS measures of Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER). BLS highlighted housing prices, headlining the CPI report as “CPI for all items rose 0.3% in January; shelter up ” As the chart above shows, Shelter was 2/3rds of the increase in the most recent. ( Chart thanks to Michael McDonough ).

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What Your Financial Statements Are Telling You—And How to Listen!

Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker

Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.

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YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined and is now up 3.6% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through January 2024. Services were up 5.0% YoY as of January 2024, unchanged from 5.0% YoY in December.

Food 316
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Q&A: Looming Regulation Could Impact the Use of Alternative Investments

Wealth Management

Anya Coverman, president and CEO of the Institute for Portfolio Alternatives, talks about potential policies at the federal and state levels that could stem advisors’ ability to use alternative investments in client portfolios.

More Trending

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (February 17-18)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that a study from Cerulli Associates indicates a lack of fee transparency represents a significant hurdle for many investors when considering working with a financial advisor. Which suggests that while advisors might be hesitant to publish their fees on their website before being able to meet face-to-face with prospects, doing so (and linking the fees to the value proposi

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Single Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in January; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Starts Up 22% Year-over-year in January; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply A brief excerpt: Note that permits held up better than starts in January, and housing starts were probably impacted by the severe weather last month. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red).

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Why Wealth Management Fees Have Remained Steady and DC Advisory Fees Have Declined

Wealth Management

Lessons learned from the wealth management industry for the defined contribution retirement space.

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Sunday links: a satellite asset

Abnormal Returns

Strategy ETFs are a better mousetrap, but they can't turn a bad manager into a good one. (wsj.com) Why you should diversify internationally. (humbledollar.com) A company moat is no guarantee of good performance. (flyoverstocks.com) Books A look at five new finance books including "The Trading Game" by Gary Stevenson. (axios.com) A look at Gary Sernovitz's new novel "Counting House.

Assets 287
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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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The Importance Of Employee Appreciation (Going Beyond Just Recognition) For Advisory Team Satisfaction And Retention

Nerd's Eye View

While there is a plethora of ways that financial advisory firm owners can build and run their practices (from service models to specialties to fee structures and beyond), one of the most complex activities shared by many growing firms are those that involve hiring, training, managing, and retaining employees. And with the increasing shift to remote and hybrid work in recent years, these skills have become even more important.

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Industrial Production Decreased 0.1% in January

Calculated Risk

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in January after recording no change in December. In January, manufacturing output declined 0.5 percent and mining output fell 2.3 percent; winter weather contributed to the declines in both sectors. The index for utilities jumped 6.0 percent, as demand for heating surged following a move from unusually mild temperatures in December to unusually cold temperatures in January.

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Private Equity Returns Plunge to Global Financial Crisis Levels

Wealth Management

Higher borrowing costs, volatile markets and economic uncertainty have made it more difficult for private equity firms to exit their existing investments through sales or initial public offerings.

Economics 305
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Podcast links: the end of globalization

Abnormal Returns

The biz Podcasting now makes up some 50% of Slate's revenues. (semafor.com) Why audio companies are still laying off workers. (axios.com) Don't forget that modern podcasts are businesses, big businesses. (youtube.com) Economy Justin Carbonneau and Jack Forehand talk all things inflation with Cullen Roche. (youtube.com) Sean Illing talks with Brad Delong, author of "Slouching Towards Utopia: An Economic History of the Twentieth Century" about the end of the globalization wave.

Startup 285
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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • A Cycle of Misery: The Business of Building Commercial Aircraft : Making commercial aircraft (large jetliners purchased by commercial airlines) is in some ways like any other manufacturing industry. A company develops a product and tries to sell it for enough to cover the costs of developing and producing it.

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Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 13.9% YoY; New Listings up 9.5% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending February 10, 2024 • Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 13.9% above year ago levels. For a 14th consecutive week, active listings registered above prior year level, which means that today’s home shoppers have more homes to choose from that aren’t already in the process of being sold.

Sales 278
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Importance of Documented Processes in an Operations Manual

Wealth Management

The integration of documented processes with CRM workflows empowers organizations to streamline operations, enhance customer satisfaction and drive sustainable growth.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week These 15 funds destroyed the most shareholder value over the past decade. (morningstar.com) Some classic investing lessons from Ed Thorp. (moontower.substack.com) Some signs of internal weakness in the stock market. (allstarcharts.com) A valuation analysis of the Magnificent Seven. (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com) In the long run, fundamentals matter.

Valuation 283
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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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MiB: Bill Dudley, NY Fed Chief

The Big Picture

 This week, we speak with Bill Dudley , former president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York , where he also served as vice chairman and a permanent member of the Federal Open Market Committee. He was executive vice president of the Markets Group at the New York Fed, where he also managed the System Open Market Account.

Banking 163
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Feb 16th COVID Update: Weekly Deaths Decreased

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. For deaths, I'm currently using 4 weeks ago for "now", since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Hospitalizations have more than tripled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023, however, they have declined sharply from around 30,000 early this year.

Numbers 272
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Snowden Lane Team Leaves to Launch Florida RIA

Wealth Management

A pair of advisors from Snowden Lane have broken away to create Coral Reef Advisors, a registered investment advisory firm in Florida’s Ponte Vedra Beach.

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Personal finance links: an IOU to the IRS

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks all things equity compensation with Derek Jess. (peterlazaroff.com) Barry Ritholtz talks value investing with Jeremy Schwartz of WisdomTree Investments. (ritholtz.com) Carl Richards talks with Jamie author of "Confessions of a Sociopath: A Life Spent Hiding in Plain Sight." (50fires.com) Taxes What tax planning entails.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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How Often Do Bear Markets Occur?

A Wealth of Common Sense

I enjoy studying market history not because it makes it any easier to predict the future but because it can set helpful baseline assumptions. For example, there have been permabears predicting a massive financial crisis and stock market crash every single year since the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. A crash is always a possibility, of course. But there have only been five crashes in the 50% or worse range over the past.

Marketing 142
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Friday: Housing Starts, PPI

Calculated Risk

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for January. The consensus is for 1.470 million SAAR, up from 1.460 million SAAR. • Also at 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for January from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in PPI, and a 0.1% increase in core PPI. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for February).

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Why Some Investors Are Bullish on Private Real Estate

Wealth Management

Valuations in the private real estate market are finally starting to reflect higher interest rates and tighter debt availability.

Valuation 298
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Tuesday links: the new gold

Abnormal Returns

Markets Why the Magnificent Seven are outperforming: earnings. (apolloacademy.com) Markets work: the case of lithium. (marginalrevolution.com) Alternatives Alternative investments are generally sold, not bought. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Per KKR ($KKR), family offices are set to boost their exposure to alternatives. (institutionalinvestor.com) IPOs These five startups, like SpaceX, should be public already, but aren't.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Is the U.S. Stock Market Too Concentrated?

A Wealth of Common Sense

There are now six stocks in the S&P 500 with trillion-dollar valuations: Microsoft ($3.1 trillion) Apple ($2.9 trillion) Nvidia ($1.8 trillion) Amazon ($1.8 trillion) Google ($1.9 trillion) Facebook ($1.2 trillion) The numbers are getting so big it’s almost hard to comprehend. Bank of America noted in a research piece last week that Nvidia by itself is now worth more than the entire Chinese stock market.

Marketing 138
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Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-February 2024 A brief excerpt: This 2-part overview for mid-February provides a snapshot of the current housing market. Let’s talk house prices, sales, inventory, mortgage rates, rents and more! I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale !

Marketing 257
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Gift and Estate Exemption Clock Ticking for 2 Million Families

Wealth Management

HNW clients need to start thinking about moving their assets.

Assets 299
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Saturday links: keeping expectations low

Abnormal Returns

Autos How three different companies are handling autonomous driving. (freethink.com) Toyota ($TM) is seeing the benefit of rising demand for hybrids. (wsj.com) Tesla ($TSLA) has a hazardous waste problem in California. (theverge.com) Existing guardrails are not holding up to today's larger vehicles. (slate.com) Why EVs are inevitable - they use less energy.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.