Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 6, 2024
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Catching Up: New Home Sales Increased to 739,000 Annual Rate in July Brief excerpt: I'm back from Africa! I’ll be catching up on recent data over the next few days, and I’ll post some photos / videos from my trip. Last week the Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 739 thousand.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 5, 2024
Barry Gilbert, portfolio manager with the Carson Group, talks about why the firm is risk-on right now, why it prefers ETFs over mutual funds and what’s different about this market cycle.
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Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 1, 2024
Also on the site How much would you pay for a house you couldn't insure? (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Another star manager, another disaster for investors. (awealthofcommonsense.com) You're not a billionaire. Stop trying to invest like one. (axios.com) The big index fund managers have a problem on their hands. (humbledollar.com) Why you likely don't need to focus on dividend paying stocks.
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 6, 2024
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" – this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Treasury Department has finalized rules requiring most SEC-registered RIAs to implement risk-based Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism programs, including a requirement to report suspicious activity to Treasury's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, with firms having until January 1, 2026 to comply with the rule.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 4, 2024
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for August: August U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Rise 4%, Ending Two Straight Declines (pay site). Growth was solid in August despite the period’s results equaling a 7-month-low SAAR. However, after rising 3.4% year-over-year in the first five months of 2024, demand over the three months since then has been nearly flat.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 6, 2024
F2 Strategy's Doug Fritz discusses how the role of the CRM has evolved.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 5, 2024
I have known Josh for nearly 15 years. Despite his writing in public that entire time, hosting two weekly shows on our YouTube channel , and showing up on CNBC three times a week, you don’t know him. Public persona aside, he is surprisingly private. I know him as well as anyone besides Sprinkles and maybe Batnick. I am going to share three things about Josh that you don’t know.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 6, 2024
The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. The participation rate and the employment population ratio were unchanged, and the unemployment rate decreased to 4.2%. Construction employment increased 34 thousand and is now 665 thousand above the pre-pandemic level.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 4, 2024
Once only a direct-to-consumer play, Boldin is working with independent RIAs and enterprise customers.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 6, 2024
Strategy Three reasons why the stock market declines. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Three reasons to buy Josh Brown's new book "You Weren’t Supposed To See That." (ritholtz.com) Semiconductors Trying to put a valuation on Nvidia ($NVDA). (aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com) TSMC's ($TSM) Arizona plant is on track for 2025 production. (bloomberg.com) Export controls are not keeping Nvidia ($NVDA) chips out of China.
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Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 5, 2024
A cornerstone service that many financial advisors provide is education. While strategic advice is crucial, advisors also face the challenge of presenting the strategies to clients in context, explaining different financial planning concepts, and showing clients how to implement these strategies (as well as pointing out any long-term consequences). While curious, proactive clients who are ready to learn may be the ideal, this can become complicated when clients bring 'good' advice they've heard
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 6, 2024
From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 142,000 in August, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in construction and health care. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for June was revised down by 61,000, from +179,000 to +118,000, and the change for July was revised down by 25,000, from +114,000 to +89,000.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 4, 2024
Private debt REITs offer a unique blend of income stability, risk management, tax efficiency, and diversification, writes Parkview Financial's VP of investor relations.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 5, 2024
Books An excerpt from Anne Applebaum's book "Autocracy, Inc: The Dictators Who Want to Run the World." (on.ft.com) Walt Hickey talks with Nate Silver author of "On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything." (numlock.com) Insights from “Hoof Beats: How Horses Shaped Human History,” by William Taylor. (theconversation.com) AI How AI will change startup investing.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
The Big Picture
AUGUST 31, 2024
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • How To Make Millions As a Professional Whistleblower : A little-known provision in US law permits anyone to blow the whistle on financial fraud — and potentially take home a percentage of the funds collected. One undercover sleuth has made a wild career out of it. ( GQ ) • Why Aging Comes in Dramatic Waves in Our 40s and 60s : A new study suggests that waves of aging-relat
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 5, 2024
The DOL reported : In the week ending August 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 227,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 231,000 to 232,000. The 4-week moving average was 230,000, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 5, 2024
Judges recognized 84 companies for their outstanding support of financial advisor success from among 287 finalists.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 5, 2024
Index funds How index funds have changed demand for large cap stocks. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Research Affilitiates is launching the Deletions ETF ($NIXT) which will buy index deletions. (mutualfundobserver.com) Apple David Pierce, "Apple Pay is one of the most Apple-y Apple products the company has ever shipped." (theverge.com) People want to copy Apple ($AAPL) products but not Apple the company.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 4, 2024
The Best Way to Buy a House Right Now with Jonathan Miller , Miller Samuel (Sept 4, 2024) Buying a house in today’s climate can be challenging. Interest rates are near the highest level in 20 years. Housing inventory is near record lows. So what’s a potential home buyer to do? Jonathan Miller, President of Miller Samuel, discusses the best approaches for purchasing a home today.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 4, 2024
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday: • 8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 238 thousand initial claims, up from 233 thousand last week.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 3, 2024
Over half of the 40 new exchange traded funds listed in the U.S. were active ETFs, and eight new buffer funds came onto the market.
Abnormal Returns
AUGUST 31, 2024
Autos Demand is growing for plug-in hybrids. (wsj.com) The transition to the Tesla ($TSLA) Supercharger network is 'frustrating.' (nytimes.com) Transport Personal injury lawyers could kill autonomous trucks before they really get going. (bloomberg.com) How hybrid airplanes work. (wsj.com) Energy Bitcoin miners in Texas can make more money from not mining.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 3, 2024
The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Heather Brilliant, Diamond Hill , is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , YouTube , and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~ This is Masters in business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio.
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 31, 2024
I'll be out of contact from August 20th until Sept 4th. I'll be back for the August employment report. The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the August ISM manufacturing index, August auto sales, and Trade Deficit for July. -- Monday, September 2nd -- All US markets will be closed in observance of the Labor Day holiday. -- Tuesday, September 3rd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for August. 10:00 AM: Construction Spending for July.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 5, 2024
Here are the good, the bad, and the ugly details that advisors and next-generation inheritors need to be aware of before signing on the dotted line.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 2, 2024
Podcasts Brendan Frazier talks with Michael Finke about the three cornerstones of a happy and fulfilling retirement. (podcasts.apple.com) Michael Kitces talks with Mark Tibergin about the difference between simply growing in size versus truly gaining scale as an advisory firm. (kitces.com) Jason Pereira talks with Larry Shumbres, CEO, and founder of Archive Intel.
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A Wealth of Common Sense
SEPTEMBER 1, 2024
I enjoy slicing and dicing historical stock market returns. I’m not naive enough to assume this helps predict the future. However, studying the past can provide a baseline to help set expectations when it comes to risk and a potential range of outcomes. Here’s a different way to look at returns over various time horizons for the S&P 500 going back to 1993: This is how to read this chart: Pick a starting.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 6, 2024
From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, the 3Q GDP tracking estimate went down three tenths to 2.3% q/q saar while our 2Q GDP tracking estimate remains unchanged at 3.0% q/q saar since the second official estimate. [Sept 6th estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: The details of the trade balance report were somewhat softer than our previous assumptions while the details of the factory orders report were roughly in line with our expectations.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 6, 2024
The lead enrichment provider also won a Wealthie award, CAIS has a new CTO and feature updates at interVal.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 4, 2024
Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Eric Balchunas about the importance of falling fund fees. (ritholtz.com) Rick Ferri talks with Christine Benz about her new book "How to Retire, 20 Lessons for a Happy, Successful, and Wealthy Retirement." (bogleheads.podbean.com) Christine Benz and Amy Arnott talk financial fraud with Kathy Stokes, director of Fraud Prevention Programs with AARP.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
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