Sat.Mar 23, 2024 - Fri.Mar 29, 2024

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Danny Kahneman: What if Everything is Narrative Fallacy?

The Big Picture

“Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: Our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.” – Daniel Kahneman The loss of Danny Kahneman is a reminder that we should review some of his work and apply them to the current market. I am fascinated by the idea of Narrative Fallacy (the term was actually coined by Nassim Taleb in “ The Black Swan “) and how it applies to pretty much ewverything.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site What is wrong with this picture? How your charitable intentions can get co-opted after you are gone. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Ten things to know about building a diversified portfolio. (morningstar.com) How home buying is going to change with the upheaval of realtor commissions. (thebasispoint.com) Byrne Hobart, "Decades of above-average net worth compounding are the reward for taking a big idea seriously, continuously refining it, and implementing it in the re

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How To Bring A Team Together For A (First-Time, In-Person) Retreat

Nerd's Eye View

For the advisor leading a virtual team, the day-to-day can offer a rewarding blend of flexibility, creativity, and productivity; at the same time, though, many of the benefits of remote work can also make it challenging to build a tight-knit team culture. For example, with flexibility comes fewer synchronous interactions, which in turn can result in less innovation, team bonding, and collaboration.

Planning 246
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How Bad is Credit Card Usage in America?

A Wealth of Common Sense

I got a new credit card this week. What can I say? I’m a sucker for a good sign-up bonus and the free bags on American flights will basically pay for the annual fee. A new card always comes with a lot of paperwork. They have all sorts of numbers to run by you, along with plenty of fine print. As a personal finance junkie, I always like to thumb through this stuff.

Numbers 144
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

Billionaires know they are. Low-wage workers are very well aware that they aren’t. But vast swaths of America’s “regular rich” don’t feel that way, and it’s keeping everybody down. [link] via Bloomberg. Electric Boogie Woogie Wagon [link] 17 astounding scientific mysteries that researchers can’t yet solve What is the universe made out of?

Math 189

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (March 30-31)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” – this week’s edition kicks off with the news that a recent survey suggests Americans are increasingly prioritizing work-life balance over higher salaries, with 2/3 of respondents indicating that they would rather work at a job that they loved rather than a job they disliked but paid more money.

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Are We Living in The Roaring 20s?

A Wealth of Common Sense

In March 2020, at the height of uncertainty at the outset of the pandemic, I wrote about what it took to get to the roaring 1920s. This chart sums it up nicely: Here’s what I wrote at the time: How many people at the time would have predicted during the war/pandemic/recession/depression years that the 1920s would be one of the most innovative, prosperous periods our country had ever seen?

Marketing 145
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6 Signs It’s Time to Ditch DIY Retirement Planning

Carson Wealth

Retirement planning is a journey that generally takes decades to complete and most of us start out along the do-it-yourself path. More than likely, your first step was to enroll in an employer-provided plan such as a 401(k) or setting up an individual retirement account, also known as an IRA. But at some point, most of us need to graduate from the DIY approach and seek advice from a retirement planning professional.

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Monday links: doing new things

Abnormal Returns

Bonds The U.S. Treasury market is only getting bigger. (wsj.com) The yield curve has been inverted for a record amount of time. (axios.com) Junk bond issuers are rushing to refinance and extend maturities with spreads at multi-year lows. (finance.yahoo.com) Which bonds prove as the best portfolio diversifier? (morningstar.com) AI Don't let AI mumbo jumbo from a fund manager fool you.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Why Guyton-Klinger Guardrails Are Too Risky For Most Retirees (And How Risk-Based Guardrails Can Help)

Nerd's Eye View

One way financial advisors can add value for retiring clients is to estimate how much they can spend sustainably during their retirement years without depleting their investment portfolio. Advisors in this position have several options to help them determine a client's initial spending level, from 'static' approaches like the 4% Rule to more dynamic approaches that allow for higher initial withdrawal rates (but introduce the possibility of spending cuts during retirement).

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How Bad is Wealth Inequality in America?

A Wealth of Common Sense

Last week I wrote about how the collective net worth of Americans is at a new all-time high. A reader asked a fair follow-up question: I’d be interested in seeing the concentration of that net worth though…I’m guessing it’s an inverted direction. Just because many households are richer than ever doesn’t mean all of them are.

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Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 6.0% year-over-year in January

Calculated Risk

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3-month average of November, December and January closing prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Continues to Trend Upward in January 2024 The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.

Assets 134
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Longform links: enduring communication

Abnormal Returns

Books An excerpt from "On the Move: The Overheating Earth and the Uprooting of America" by Abrahm Lustgarten. (theatlantic.com) A Q&A with Jonathan Haidt author of "The Anxious Generation: How the Great Rewiring of Childhood Is Causing an Epidemic of Mental Illness." (davidepstein.substack.com) An excerpt from "Slow Productivity: The Lost Art of Accomplishment Without Burnout" by Cal Newport.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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The Power of Silence: Turning Off Notifications Enhances Productivity

Wealth Management

Reclaim your attention by embracing intentional disconnection.

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What About 60/30/10 Instead of 60/40?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Ben always shares the long-run returns for stocks, bonds and cash. It’s essentially 10%, 5% and 3%. I know past is not predictive, blah, blah, blah but am well aware that cash has the lowest prospective returns of the main asset classes. Knowing this full well, I still want to keep 10% of my portfolio in cash in retirement so I can sleep at night.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 210,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending March 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000 , a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 210,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average.

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Research links: noisy, unreliable data

Abnormal Returns

ETFs How the existence of sector ETFs affects analyst estimates. (papers.ssrn.com) How mutual funds and ETFs can exist side-by-side. (papers.ssrn.com) Macro Hedging inflation risk is harder than it looks. (insights.finominal.com) How do macro factors affect trend following returns? (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Quant stuff It's not difficult to calculate downside beta.

Portfolio 265
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Goldman Sachs: More Than One in Four Women Retire with Less Than $50K

Wealth Management

In a gender-based look at saving for retirement, the bank found some signs of improvement amid ongoing challenges faced by women.

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Animal Spirits: The Roaring Twenties

A Wealth of Common Sense

Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by TBIL and the US Benchmark Series: See here for more information on investing in TBIL and the US Benchmark Series See here to register for The Compound Insider Listen here: On today’s show, we discuss: Why the roaring twenties left many Americans poorer Lots more on the big can kick in commercial real estate The $27T Treasury market is only getting bigger Hey.

Investing 132
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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 22, 2024. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.

Marketing 130
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Adviser links: better Medicare coverage

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Michael Kitces and Carl Richards talk about how to help clients find their 'enough.' (kitces.com) Daniel Crosby talks financial well-being with Philip Courtenay. (standarddeviationspod.com) The biz Goldman Sachs ($GS) wants its place at the model portfolio table. (investmentnews.com) Vanguard is not budging in its negative view on crypto products.

Insurance 148
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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Legacy in Limbo: Family Businesses Without Heirs

Wealth Management

Proactive succession planning can ensure a smooth transition and continued success.

Planning 131
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#FA Success Ep 378: Scaling Growth At 1/4th The Cost Of M&A By Wading Through The “No’s” Of SmartAsset Leads, With Michael Collins

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 378th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Michael Collins. Michael is the CEO & Founder of WinCap Financial, an RIA based in Boston, Massachusetts, that oversees $80M in assets under management for 70 client households. What's unique about Michael, though, is that since 2021 he has been able to grow WinCap Financial at a rate of more than $10M of AUM per year through consistently reaching out to leads purchased through SmartAs

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The Corporate Transparency Act: What You Need to Know

Carson Wealth

By Mike Valenti, CPA, CFP®, Director,Tax Planning LLCs can provide legal protections and a level of anonymity, either or both of which can be beneficial for business owners, investors, and others with valid intentions. But those features also attract criminal activity, and layers of shell companies can create excellent cover for those involved in fraudulent activities.

License 129
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Economic Momentum

Alpha Architect

Strong empirical evidence demonstrates that momentum (both cross-sectional and time-series) provides information on the cross-section of returns of many risk assets and has generated alpha relative to existing asset pricing models. Economic Momentum was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

Economics 124
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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$750M Advisor Joins Raymond James from Schwab

Wealth Management

Lynette Ancona will be part of Raymond James’ employee advisor channel. Previously, she was a branch-based advisor with Charles Schwab.

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Episode #526: Indexing Nevada PERS: Steve Edmundson’s $60 Billion Strategy

Meb Faber Research

Guest: Steve Edmundson is the Chief Investment Officer at the Public Employees’ Retirement System of Nevada (NVPERS), overseeing over $60 billion in assets. Recorded: 3/18/2024 | Run-Time: 48:01 Summary: As pension funds continue to hire more employees, pay more and more fees and build more complex portfolios, Steve is an outlier for his approach that emphasizes […] The post Episode #526: Indexing Nevada PERS: Steve Edmundson’s $60 Billion Strategy appeared first on Meb Faber

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Personal Income increased 0.3% in February; Spending increased 0.8%

Calculated Risk

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays for February: Personal income increased $66.5 billion (0.3 percent at a monthly rate) in February , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $50.3 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $145.5 billion (0.8 percent).

Food 118