Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 10, 2022
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 5, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 42% above one year ago.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 8, 2022
A lot of reporters and public intellectuals were writing their obituaries for Twitter this weekend. First, we saw the revolt of the Blue Checkmarks. Then, the first inklings of an advertiser exodus. The timing of all this – on the eve of a midterm election that will determine whether or not Americans actually care about democracy – could not have been more ominous.
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The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
My views on inflation continue to evolve: I was correct in identifying inflation during the mid-2000s; during the post-crash 2010s I remained appropriately skeptical about rising prices. The price dynamic during and after the pandemic appeared to be troublesome but my expectations were that inflation would be resolved relatively quickly as supply chains reopened and life returned to normal. “ Transitory ” turned out to be too optimistic, and I was wrong in my expectations for a faster decline in
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
Twitter Axe Last Friday, Elon Musk cut about half of the company’s work force. That's approximately 3,700 jobs. Many employees did not know until they saw their corporate access blocked. I saw some Tweets in which managers did not even know which of their subordinates were axed. The managers sent emails to their subordinates asking if they still had access.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 8, 2022
Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices. This graph shows CME random length framing futures through November 8th. Lumber was at $447 per 1000 board feet this morning. This is down from the peak of $1,733, and down 33% from $663 a year ago. Prices are close to the pre-pandemic levels of around $400. Click on graph for larger image. There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices usually peak in April or May, although prices peaked much earlier this year.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 10, 2022
It represents one recent example of venture capital’s bet on the human side of wealth management.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 9, 2022
Image from Investing.com yellow highlights and comments are mine. Market Still Reeling From Collapse of FTX Yesterday I noted Crypto Crash Is Led by a Whopping 88 Percent Plunge in FTX Here is the chart I posted yesterday. Today's chart will follow. FTX chart courtesy of CoinDesk. Price points added by Mish. Valuation Plunge The 44 percent rally was due to the announcement of a deal with Binance.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices See Smaller Decline in October Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) decreased 2.2% in October from September. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index declined to 200.0 and is now down 10.6% from a year ago. The non-adjusted price change in October was a decline of 2.1% compared to September, moving the unadjusted average price down 9.3% year over year. emphasis added Click on graph for larger im
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 6, 2022
By assuming existing loans, investors can mitigate the risk from rising interest rates and ultimately underwrite a greater leveraged return, market participants say.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 5, 2022
This week, we speak with financial historian Edward Chancellor. He is currently a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews and an occasional contributor to the Wall Street Journal and MoneyWeek. In 2008, he received the George Polk Award for financial reporting. Chancellor is the author of “ Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation.” His new book “ The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest ” is a nominee for FT’s 2022 Business Book of the Year.
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Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 9, 2022
Career shifts Former Peloton ($PTON) CEO John Foley is getting into the rug business. (wsj.com) UBS' Chief Risk Officer is becoming a photographer. (ft.com) Investing Rich people don't typically get rich on alternative investments. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Ten tips for surviving a bear market including 'You’re not limited to one rebalance.' (wealthfoundme.com) Bear markets affect different classes of investors in different ways.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 10, 2022
From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Decrease to New Survey Low in the Third Quarter of 2022 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties decreased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.45 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2022, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 9, 2022
They can lay out functional responsibilities and expectations for everyone in an organization.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 11, 2022
Yesterday’s explosive move higher was exactly what I was referring to last month in Groping for a Bottom , when I suggested the risks were asymmetrical in : “The risk here feels asymmetric : The downside appears to me as a potential grind lower — the Fed overtightens, then keeps over-tightening; maybe earnings miss badly; That mild recession we have been discussing — what if it turns out to be much worse than expected?
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
Podcast Michael Kitces talks with Mindy Crary, owner of Creative Money, about making it clear about fiduciary marketing. (kitces.com) Daniel Crosby talks with Kurt Brown, CEO and CIO, of TownSquare Capital. (standarddeviationspod.com) Compliance Jason Zweig, "In 30 years of writing about the financial-advice industry, I never learned that advisers can provide less-comprehensive disclosures than stockbrokers.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 10, 2022
From the BLS : The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.7 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for shelter contributed over half of the monthly all items increase , with the indexes for gasoline and food also increasing.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 5, 2022
Just wanted to start by saying thanks to everyone who made a donation to our Long Island Cares food drive for Thanksgiving. The money really goes a long way, we’re going to be making a big difference in the lives of people who need help this holiday season. We shattered the goal dollar-wise and I’m hoping to see a few hundred donated meals this weekend at our drop.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 5, 2022
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of BeanBox coffee, grab a seat on the settee, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Jony Ive on Life After Apple : The mastermind behind Apple’s most iconic products reveals how his design philosophy guides collaborations at his creative collective, LoveFrom. ( Wall Street Journal ). • Bitcoin mining in the crypto crash — the mining companies’ creative accounting : Bitcoin miners used to be ruthless economic agents, in it for the money.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 9, 2022
Multifamily Dive reports on a new lawsuit alleging RealPage, GreyStar and other managers artificially inflated the rents on student housing projects. CRE pros are using the new transparency pay law in New York City to gauge their current compensation levels, according to Bisnow. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It was interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic impact subsided. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of November 6th. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 8, 2022
FTX chart courtesy of CoinDesk. Price points added by Mish. What's Going On? The Wall Street Journal reports Crypto Exchange Binance to Acquire Rival FTX Cryptocurrency exchange FTX, just months removed from looking like a shining survivor in a struggling industry, succumbed Tuesday to a sudden liquidity crunch of its own and was taken over by rival Binance.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 10, 2022
This MoneyShow episode is now out from behind the paywall. Previously : Biggest Mistakes of UHNW Investors (October 25, 2021). The post Biggest Mistakes Made by UHNW Investors appeared first on The Big Picture.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 9, 2022
Clients don’t want to be sold to, they want to be understood.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 8, 2022
From Dodge Data Analytics: Dodge Momentum Index Continues to Climb in October he Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, improved 9.6% (2000=100) in October to 199.7 from the revised September reading of 182.2. During the month, the DMI continued its steady ascent, with the commercial component rising 13%, and the institutional component ticking up 2.9%.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 9, 2022
The passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2014 introduced many changes to the healthcare landscape in the United States. One of these changes was the ability for children to remain on their parents’ health insurance plan until they reach age 26. In addition to having access to health insurance at a lower cost than they might have on their own, this measure also creates a potentially lucrative planning opportunity for young adults who can be covered by a parent’s High-Deductible Healt
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 9, 2022
Markets If nothing else, the Fed is causing investors pain. (howiesarchive.com) The risk/reward equation for bonds has done a 180. (pragcap.com) FTX How FTX unraveled. (thediff.co) The Binance deal for FTX is not a foregone conclusion. (coindesk.com) The end to the FTX story has not yet been written. (amycastor.com) VCs are going to get crushed by the FTX news.
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Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 11, 2022
More and more affluent investors are starting their search for an advisor online.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 7, 2022
Active inventory decreased slightly. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory is declining sharply at this time of year ): 2022: -2.2K (smaller than usual decrease in inventory) 2021: -13.0K 2020: -13.4K 2019: -20.7K Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 138% since then.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 11, 2022
The 7 Series is all new and redesigned, with your choice of electric or traditional ICE powertrains: the 740i is a rear-drive, 3.0-liter BMW TwinPower Turbo inline 6-cylinder that makes 375 HP; the 760i xDrive Sedan is all-wheel drive, with a 4.4-liter BMW TwinPower Turbo V-8 engine making 536HP. But the top of the line is now an all-electric luxury sedan: the i7 starting at $119,300, producing 536 HP, with a range that is about 300 miles. 0-60 MPH only takes 4.5 seconds.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 10, 2022
Books An excerpt from Annie Duke's new book "Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away." (behavioralscientist.org) A Q&A with Richard V. Reeves author of "Of Boys and Men: Why the Modern Male is Struggling, Why it Matters, and What to Do About It." (npr.org) An excerpt from "Data Cartels: The Companies That Control and Monopolize Our Information" by Sarah Lamdan.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
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