Sat.Aug 20, 2022 - Fri.Aug 26, 2022

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Tales from the Dark Side

The Big Picture

I had a fascinating conversation with an old friend who has been working in a giant bulge bracket firm his entire multi-decade career. What made this particular conversation so intriguing was his sudden epiphany about the Sell-side. Our previous discussions (debates really) were over the traditional model of brokerage I push back against versus the fee-based fiduciary asset management I embrace.

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Literally

The Reformed Broker

Sharing this chart from Guggenheim showing that the S&P 500’s bear market bounce literally stopped on a dime and was turned away at the 200-day moving average. It’s almost too perfect. We manage our tactical portfolio based on technically-oriented rules not because it always works (it doesn’t!) but because it eliminates feelings like fear or fear of missing out from the decision-making process.

Portfolio 294
Insiders

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Personal finance links: a major shift

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Tim Ranzetta talks with Morgan Housel about the psychology of money. (ngpf.org) Jonathan Fields talks wealth and psychology with Patrice Washington host of the “Redefining Wealth Podcast.” (goodlifeproject.com) Jordan Harbinger talks with Dr. Brad Klontz — co-author of "Money Mammoth: Harness The Power of Financial Psychology to Evolve Your Money Mindset, Avoid Extinction, and Crush Your Financial Goals.

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Client Cash Management: Why It’s Important, And The Next Generation Of Technology To Make It Better

Nerd's Eye View

Cash tends to exist at the forefront of individuals' day-to-day lives for many reasons: as a stable savings vehicle for near-term goals, a safety net for unforeseen emergency expenses, and, of course, to pay for daily living expenses, just to name a few. And this nearness to daily life means that cash - and how it is used - is also often at the forefront of individuals' minds.

Clients 246
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Future Proof is Almost Here!

The Big Picture

Over the years, I have been involved in a fair share of investment conferences. This began with the Big Picture Conference at the New York Athletic Club, post-GFC. I had flipped bullish in March 2009, but I have vivid recollections that Fall of listening to Jim O’Shaughnessy of OSAM explain the history of markets following a 50+% crash. He was even more bullish than I was, and had the data to back it up.

More Trending

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Also on the site The age of exchange traded funds and the launch of single-bond ETFs. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Ben Carlson, "Here’s a little secret about investing the pros will never admit — you don’t have to predict the future to be successful in the markets." (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why would a16z invest so much, so soon, in Adam Neumann's new thing?

Investing 163
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Client Cash Management: Why It’s Important, And The Next Generation Of Technology To Make It Better

Nerd's Eye View

Cash tends to exist at the forefront of individuals' day-to-day lives for many reasons: as a stable savings vehicle for near-term goals, a safety net for unforeseen emergency expenses, and, of course, to pay for daily living expenses, just to name a few. And this nearness to daily life means that cash - and how it is used - is also often at the forefront of individuals' minds.

Clients 246
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Lessons From the Future

The Big Picture

When it comes to integrating data with investing insights, no one is better than Ben Carlson. I direct you to today’s “ Exceptions to the Rule, ” where Ben dives into the nitty gritty of the conflicting data between market action and inflation data: BULL : The S&P 500 has recovered half of its 2022 bear market losses. When this has occurred in the past, stocks have never moved back to new lows, and have been higher every time a year later.

Marketing 327
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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

It was a quiet week here at TRB as we had more than a dozen employees come in to New York from around the country to spend some time at the Mother Ship in midtown Manhattan and out here on Long Island. It’s cool to see RWM people who have never met each other in-person before solidify the relationships they’ve begun building on Slack and Zoom and Google Meet.

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Research links: multiple expansion

Abnormal Returns

Trend A reminder that momentum and trend following are two distinct things. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Comparing TAA and long volatility strategies. (insights.factorresearch.com) Factors Is value just a big interest rate bet? (aqr.com) Is the size factor down for good? (mailchi.mp) Research Using asset duration to create an all-weather portfolio. (disciplinefunds.com) Does mining credit card data make for alpha?

Portfolio 148
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#FA Success Ep 295: Systematizing A Planning Process To Maximize The Return On Life For Clients, With Shari Greco Reiches

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 295th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Shari Greco Reiches. Shari is the Co-Founder and Chief Visionary Officer of Rappaport Reiches Capital Management, an independent RIA based in Skokie, Illinois, that oversees more than $800 million in assets under management, for 350 client households.

Clients 245
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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • How to Beat the Stock Market Without Even Lying : Stock funds have been pulling a switcheroo to make their returns look better: When they don’t measure up, they change how they measure. ( Wall Street Journal ). • Remote Work Is Sticking : About a third of all service work and just under 10% of manufacturing work in the region was being done remotely—a huge jump from 8% and 3%, respectively, before the pandemic. ( Liberty Street Economics ) see also Pizz

Food 306
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Why Are TIPS Losing Money With Inflation at 9%?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: Hey guys please explain why an inflation-linked bond could have lost money this year with inflation at 9%. I’ve been getting this question a lot lately. How could bonds that have an implicit inflation kicker be down almost 7% this year? Treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) are one of the most peculiar assets in the investment universe.

Assets 145
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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Monday links: probabilistic games

Abnormal Returns

Markets The stock market was stopped dead in its tracks at the 200-day moving average. (thereformedbroker.com) Last week more than 90% of S&P 500 stocks were above their 50-day moving average. (wsj.com) Strategy Trying to distinguish between speculation and investing is wasted effort. (integratinginvestor.com) Good investors aren't trying to impress anyone.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 93: Getting An ROI From Your New Associate Advisor (In Less Than 6 Years)

Nerd's Eye View

Historically, the career path for newer financial advisors has followed a commission-based model that was focused on sales and business development first and learning the technical aspects of financial planning along the way. As the financial advisory industry has evolved, though, it has shifted to a business model that focuses more on teaching new advisors how to provide good financial planning services first, and to focus on business development later.

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Cyclical Bear Within a Secular Bull

The Big Picture

Barry Ritholtz, Ritholtz Wealth Management Chairman and CIO & “Masters in Business” Bloomberg Radio & Podcast Host, says he looks at the sell-off in the first half of 2022 as a “cyclical bear within a longer secular bull.” Cyclical Bear Within a Secular Bull: Ritholtz. Source: Bloomberg , August 19th, 2022. The post Cyclical Bear Within a Secular Bull appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 243,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending August 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 243,000 , a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 5,000 from 250,000 to 245,000. The 4-week moving average was 247,000, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Saturday links: a tribute to teamwork

Abnormal Returns

Autos U.S. traffic deaths in 2022 are at a 20-year high. (msn.com) The Ford ($F) F-150 Lightning is a great truck with a subpar tablet. (theverge.com) EV buyers need to be careful when it comes to tax credits. (nytimes.com) It would help if EV chargers were actually working. (theverge.com) Transport UPS ($UPS) driver are struggling with the heat in their vehicles.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 93: Getting An ROI From Your New Associate Advisor (In Less Than 6 Years)

Nerd's Eye View

Historically, the career path for newer financial advisors has followed a commission-based model that was focused on sales and business development first and learning the technical aspects of financial planning along the way. As the financial advisory industry has evolved, though, it has shifted to a business model that focuses more on teaching new advisors how to provide good financial planning services first, and to focus on business development later.

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Inflation Is Up Everywhere, But How Much Depends on Where You Live : The Northeast isn’t feeling the pain as much as the South or Mountain West, This could have political implications in the 2022 midterms. ( Businessweek ) see also Why the Rent Inflation Is So Damn High It’s just the latest chapter in the “everything is weird” economy. ( The Atlantic ). • The Biggest Life Event That No One Talks About : Graduation, first job, marriage, kids, divorce,

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Why People Make Dumb Financial Decisions on Purpose

A Wealth of Common Sense

There was a question posed on Twitter this week that caused a stir among finance people: A 50% chance of winning $50 million would equate to an expected value of $25 million. Why would you take $1 million against an expected payout value of $25 million? That doesn’t make any sense. If you understand probabilities, you hit the green button. Easy right?

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Employment: Preliminary annual benchmark revision shows upward adjustment of 462,000 jobs

Calculated Risk

The BLS released the preliminary annual benchmark revision showing 462,000 more payroll jobs as of March 2022. The final revision will be published when the January 2023 employment report is released in February 2023. Usually, the preliminary estimate is pretty close to the final benchmark estimate. The annual revision is benchmarked to state tax records.

Taxes 143
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Drafting RIA Advisory Agreements: Best Practices And Essential Elements To Include

Nerd's Eye View

Advisory agreements for Registered Investment Advisers (RIAs) contain many sections that are important both for the purposes of complying with SEC and state securities regulations, and for constituting a valid agreement between the RIA and the client. In his latest article for the Nerd’s Eye View blog, Chris Stanley, investment management attorney and Founding Principal of Beach Street Legal, laid out the statutory requirements for RIA advisory agreements and what to include in the agreeme

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • Hope You Enjoyed the Summer Rally : The easy money has already been made (probably). ( Businessweek ). • Powell Has Chance to Reset Market Expectations at Jackson Hole : Fed chair will speak amid high inflation, investor optimism ECB, BoE officials also set to attend annual Fed conference. ( Bloomberg ) see also The NY Fed vs Larry Summers : Some pundits were right on high inflation but for the wrong reasons. ( Financial Times ). • An overlooked indicato

Economy 295
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Exceptions to the Rule

A Wealth of Common Sense

Ryan Detrick shared a stat last week that should put stock market investors at ease with the recent rally: Here is Ryan’s data to back this up: And the chart: This sounds pretty good to me and it makes sense intuitively. Bear market rallies are a common occurrence but not to this degree. So are we out of the woods? Maybe? The problem is that although it appears we have skirted a recession for the time being, it&#.

Marketing 143
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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Personal Income increased 0.2% in July; Spending increased 0.1%

Calculated Risk

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for July: Personal income increased $47.0 billion (0.2 percent) in July , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $23.7 billion (0.1 percent).

Food 143
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Drafting RIA Advisory Agreements: Best Practices And Essential Elements To Include

Nerd's Eye View

Advisory agreements for Registered Investment Advisers (RIAs) contain many sections that are important both for the purposes of complying with SEC and state securities regulations, and for constituting a valid agreement between the RIA and the client. In his latest article for the Nerd’s Eye View blog, Chris Stanley, investment management attorney and Founding Principal of Beach Street Legal, laid out the statutory requirements for RIA advisory agreements and what to include in the agreeme

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MiB: Bill Browder on Finance, Murder and Justice

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Bill Browder, who is head of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign and author of the recently released “Freezing Order: A True Story of Money Laundering, Murder and Surviving Vladimir Putin’s Wrath.” The founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, which was the investment adviser to the largest foreign investment fund in Russia until 2005, Browder is also the author of “ Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder and One Man’s Fight for Justice.