Calculated Risk
AUGUST 25, 2022
The DOL reported : In the week ending August 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 243,000 , a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 5,000 from 250,000 to 245,000. The 4-week moving average was 247,000, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average.
The Big Picture
AUGUST 26, 2022
I had a fascinating conversation with an old friend who has been working in a giant bulge bracket firm his entire multi-decade career. What made this particular conversation so intriguing was his sudden epiphany about the Sell-side. Our previous discussions (debates really) were over the traditional model of brokerage I push back against versus the fee-based fiduciary asset management I embrace.
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Wealth Management
AUGUST 23, 2022
Over 1,800 companies re-shored production in 2021, setting a new record for re-shoring activity, notes The Reshoring Initiative. These companies are looking for logistics facilities, warehouses and distribution sites.
The Reformed Broker
AUGUST 22, 2022
Sharing this chart from Guggenheim showing that the S&P 500’s bear market bounce literally stopped on a dime and was turned away at the 200-day moving average. It’s almost too perfect. We manage our tactical portfolio based on technically-oriented rules not because it always works (it doesn’t!) but because it eliminates feelings like fear or fear of missing out from the decision-making process.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 24, 2022
The BLS released the preliminary annual benchmark revision showing 462,000 more payroll jobs as of March 2022. The final revision will be published when the January 2023 employment report is released in February 2023. Usually, the preliminary estimate is pretty close to the final benchmark estimate. The annual revision is benchmarked to state tax records.
The Big Picture
AUGUST 25, 2022
Over the years, I have been involved in a fair share of investment conferences. This began with the Big Picture Conference at the New York Athletic Club, post-GFC. I had flipped bullish in March 2009, but I have vivid recollections that Fall of listening to Jim O’Shaughnessy of OSAM explain the history of markets following a 50+% crash. He was even more bullish than I was, and had the data to back it up.
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The Reformed Broker
AUGUST 26, 2022
Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Devon Drew, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss Jackson Hole, Adam Neumann’s new venture, crypto regulation, the best performing stocks since March 2020, using AI in asset management, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 26, 2022
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for July: Personal income increased $47.0 billion (0.2 percent) in July , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.6 billion (0.2 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $23.7 billion (0.1 percent).
The Big Picture
AUGUST 24, 2022
When it comes to integrating data with investing insights, no one is better than Ben Carlson. I direct you to today’s “ Exceptions to the Rule, ” where Ben dives into the nitty gritty of the conflicting data between market action and inflation data: BULL : The S&P 500 has recovered half of its 2022 bear market losses. When this has occurred in the past, stocks have never moved back to new lows, and have been higher every time a year later.
Wealth Management
AUGUST 24, 2022
A lesser-discussed aspect of the new SEC marketing rule reignites an old debate—how can an advisor tout their own investment track record after leaving a firm?
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Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Abnormal Returns
AUGUST 24, 2022
Podcasts Tim Ranzetta talks with Morgan Housel about the psychology of money. (ngpf.org) Jonathan Fields talks wealth and psychology with Patrice Washington host of the “Redefining Wealth Podcast.” (goodlifeproject.com) Jordan Harbinger talks with Dr. Brad Klontz — co-author of "Money Mammoth: Harness The Power of Financial Psychology to Evolve Your Money Mindset, Avoid Extinction, and Crush Your Financial Goals.
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 24, 2022
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 19, 2022. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 83 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Big Picture
AUGUST 22, 2022
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • How to Beat the Stock Market Without Even Lying : Stock funds have been pulling a switcheroo to make their returns look better: When they don’t measure up, they change how they measure. ( Wall Street Journal ). • Remote Work Is Sticking : About a third of all service work and just under 10% of manufacturing work in the region was being done remotely—a huge jump from 8% and 3%, respectively, before the pandemic. ( Liberty Street Economics ) see also Pizz
Wealth Management
AUGUST 25, 2022
The acquisition adds $830 million in AUM and a new retirement plan division with $489 million in AUA.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Nerd's Eye View
AUGUST 22, 2022
Cash tends to exist at the forefront of individuals' day-to-day lives for many reasons: as a stable savings vehicle for near-term goals, a safety net for unforeseen emergency expenses, and, of course, to pay for daily living expenses, just to name a few. And this nearness to daily life means that cash - and how it is used - is also often at the forefront of individuals' minds.
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 24, 2022
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings Index slows but remains healthy For the eighteenth consecutive month architecture firms reported increasing demand for design services in July, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).
The Big Picture
AUGUST 22, 2022
Barry Ritholtz, Ritholtz Wealth Management Chairman and CIO & “Masters in Business” Bloomberg Radio & Podcast Host, says he looks at the sell-off in the first half of 2022 as a “cyclical bear within a longer secular bull.” Cyclical Bear Within a Secular Bull: Ritholtz. Source: Bloomberg , August 19th, 2022. The post Cyclical Bear Within a Secular Bull appeared first on The Big Picture.
Wealth Management
AUGUST 26, 2022
Despite the hefty increases, some apartment owners say rents for many tenants remain below accepted affordability ceilings.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
The Reformed Broker
AUGUST 20, 2022
It was a quiet week here at TRB as we had more than a dozen employees come in to New York from around the country to spend some time at the Mother Ship in midtown Manhattan and out here on Long Island. It’s cool to see RWM people who have never met each other in-person before solidify the relationships they’ve begun building on Slack and Zoom and Google Meet.
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 25, 2022
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary), Second Quarter 2022 Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2022 , according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent.
The Big Picture
AUGUST 23, 2022
My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Inflation Is Up Everywhere, But How Much Depends on Where You Live : The Northeast isn’t feeling the pain as much as the South or Mountain West, This could have political implications in the 2022 midterms. ( Businessweek ) see also Why the Rent Inflation Is So Damn High It’s just the latest chapter in the “everything is weird” economy. ( The Atlantic ). • The Biggest Life Event That No One Talks About : Graduation, first job, marriage, kids, divorce,
Wealth Management
AUGUST 22, 2022
Stay focused on the triple Fs: fees, funds and fiduciary
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Nerd's Eye View
AUGUST 22, 2022
Cash tends to exist at the forefront of individuals' day-to-day lives for many reasons: as a stable savings vehicle for near-term goals, a safety net for unforeseen emergency expenses, and, of course, to pay for daily living expenses, just to name a few. And this nearness to daily life means that cash - and how it is used - is also often at the forefront of individuals' minds.
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 25, 2022
From WardsAuto: August U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Running Flat with July; Inventory Set to Increase (pay content). Brief excerpt: "The overriding factor is that even without headwinds such as higher interest rates, low consumer confidence, elevated fuel prices and an inventory mix favoring more expensive models, the general lack of availability of new vehicles would keep sales from being significantly stronger.
The Big Picture
AUGUST 26, 2022
My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • Hope You Enjoyed the Summer Rally : The easy money has already been made (probably). ( Businessweek ). • Powell Has Chance to Reset Market Expectations at Jackson Hole : Fed chair will speak amid high inflation, investor optimism ECB, BoE officials also set to attend annual Fed conference. ( Bloomberg ) see also The NY Fed vs Larry Summers : Some pundits were right on high inflation but for the wrong reasons. ( Financial Times ). • An overlooked indicato
Wealth Management
AUGUST 26, 2022
As firms scramble to stay off FINRA’s new “leper list” of broker/dealers with histories of misconduct, some say smaller businesses and reps with only minor regulatory blemishes are being unduly tarnished.
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Nerd's Eye View
AUGUST 23, 2022
Welcome back to the 295th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Shari Greco Reiches. Shari is the Co-Founder and Chief Visionary Officer of Rappaport Reiches Capital Management, an independent RIA based in Skokie, Illinois, that oversees more than $800 million in assets under management, for 350 client households.
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 26, 2022
From BofA: [W]e continue to track 3Q GDP at 0.5% q/q saar [August 26 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: The personal consumption details were softer than our previous assumptions, and we lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.0% (qoq ar). [August 26 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.6 percent on August 26, up from 1.4 percent on August 24.
The Big Picture
AUGUST 20, 2022
This week, we speak with Bill Browder, who is head of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign and author of the recently released “Freezing Order: A True Story of Money Laundering, Murder and Surviving Vladimir Putin’s Wrath.” The founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management, which was the investment adviser to the largest foreign investment fund in Russia until 2005, Browder is also the author of “ Red Notice: A True Story of High Finance, Murder and One Man’s Fight for Justice.
Wealth Management
AUGUST 25, 2022
The two global alternative asset managers have doubled down on their efforts to bring their products to the RIA channel, with hopes that their three-tiered strategy will resonate in the marketplace.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
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