The Big Picture
OCTOBER 26, 2022
Today’s edition of “ Nobody Knows Anything ” is about a once-dominant mobile phone maker. Exactly 15 years ago, Forbes’s new cover story lauded Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Nokia’s CEO. The headline trumpeted: “Nokia, one billion customers – can anyone catch the cell phone king?” It was posted online October 26, 2007 — 15 years ago today.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 28, 2022
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income increased $78.9 billion (0.4 percent) in September , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $71.3 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $113.0 billion (0.6 percent).
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Wealth Management
OCTOBER 27, 2022
Schwab RIA execs reconfirmed repapering will not be needed for the majority of accounts, and ThinkPipes and iRebal will be included on Schwab's platform.
Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 26, 2022
Roth conversions are, in essence, a way to pay income taxes on pre-tax retirement funds in exchange for future tax-free growth and withdrawals. The decision of whether or not to convert pre-tax assets to Roth is, on its surface, a simple one: If the assets in question would be taxed at a lower rate by converting them to Roth and paying tax on them today, versus waiting to pay the tax in the future when they are eventually withdrawn, then the Roth conversion makes sense.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 25, 2022
My colleague Ben Carlson asked the question “ Why Isn’t Inflation Falling? ” There are some technical explanations, but before we get there, a quick reminder as to how we got here: The global pandemic forced governments around the world to shut their economies down; everything was closed, from schools to businesses, restaurants, entertainment venues, retail stores, and offices.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 27, 2022
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 22, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 36% above one year ago.
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Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 28, 2022
Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the SEC has proposed a rule that would require RIAs to conduct enhanced due diligence and recordkeeping when using certain outsourced investment management services and other third-party service providers. While the rule is currently in the public comment stage, given the growing popularity of outsourcing certain tasks to free up time for other planning a
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 28, 2022
is Mr. Market daring Jerome Powell to keep raising rates? That’s one way to read into today’s surging market — Nasdaq up 2.9%, the Dow tacking on over 800 points (2.6%), and the S&P 500 added 2.5%. Despite the carnage in big-cap tech stocks like Facebook, Amazon and Google, the Nasdaq is up 2% for the past week. The S&P500 has gained nearly 4% for the week, and is up almost 7% for the past 30 days.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 28, 2022
From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Market Softens, Sales Put on Hold Amidst Rising Rates and Economic Uncertainty Rising interest rates caused by the Federal Reserve’s ongoing efforts to combat inflation continue to impact the multifamily business. However, it is worth noting that the overall apartment market has begun to revert to pre-pandemic trends as rent growth is decreasing.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 28, 2022
Cohen & Company's Camille Clemons discusses the best practices for entering the ETF industry.
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Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 24, 2022
Strategy How much has indexing saved investors in fees? (evidenceinvestor.com) Some investors may not understand when they take on leverage. (rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Companies Brad Gerstner on how to turn Meta's ($META) stock around. (medium.com) Big tech companies are sitting on their own bond market losses. (theinformation.com) Snowflake ($SNOW) is growing into its valuation.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 28, 2022
The Rolls Royce Spectre is the first electric car to come from the luxe auitomasker (owned by BMW); its all-electric powertrain produces 577 horsepower and 664 pound-feet of torque. The stats are impressive: 0-to-60 mph = 4.4 seconds. Top speed of 155 mph. 577 horsepower and 664 pound-feet of torque. Total driving range 260 miles. Charge from 10-80% full in 34 minutes.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 28, 2022
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 10.2% in September Pending home sales trailed off for the fourth consecutive month in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major regions recorded month-over-month and year-over-year declines in transactions. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, slumped 10.2% to 79.5 in September.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 26, 2022
Due diligence tips for advisors looking to incorporate life insurance into their service offerings.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 27, 2022
Markets Bitcoin has been boring of late. (ft.com) Not all (emerging) markets are created equal. (allstarcharts.com) Companies Zuck is running Meta ($META) into the ground. (ez.substack.com) Elon is trying to reassure Twitter ($TWTR) advertisers. (variety.com) Hedge funds Big money managers keep snapping up private credit shops. (ft.com) Multi-strategy hedge funds are the new fund of funds.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 27, 2022
We discussed how ephemeral and short-lived great success can be yesterday in Can Anyone Catch Nokia? As I was writing it, I had no idea it was a metaphor for what would happen a few hours later, a coincidental preface to a discussion about another mega-cap tech — META, aka Facebook. I asked Scott Galloway about which of the Four firms was most likely to falter, we (more or less) agreed that it was Facebook.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 24, 2022
Active inventory increased again, hitting another new peak for the year. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory is declining at this time of year ): 2022: +5.7K (still increasing!) 2021: -0.8K 2020: -4.7K 2019: -7.0K Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 137% since then.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 24, 2022
Strong demand and concentrated portfolios among established operators, including several REITs, have produced solid returns for investors.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 26, 2022
Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Bob Seawright about how to make behavioral finance actionable. (peterlazaroff.com) Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk FIRE with Kiersten and Julien Saunders authors of a new book called "Cashing Out: Win the Wealth Game by Walking Away." (morningstar.com) Investing Bear markets have a tendency to compress investor time frames.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 28, 2022
My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • For Diving FAANG Stocks, It’s the End of an Era : The five FAANG stocks are on track for their worst simultaneous losses ever, a far cry from their late-2021 highs. The stocks—Facebook parent Meta Platforms, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet—have posted double-digit declines this year for the first time.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 27, 2022
The DOL reported : In the week ending October 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 217,000 , an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 214,000. The 4-week moving average was 219,000, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 212,250. emphasis added The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 27, 2022
It’s more work than a marketing push, but the rewards will almost certainly be greater and more durable.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 25, 2022
Markets Given the market downturn, why isn't the VIX higher? (ft.com) 52-week lows have dried up. (allstarcharts.com) Rates Why the rapid rise in short term interest rates is a big deal. (fortunesandfrictions.com) The 40 in 60/40 portfolio is looking a lot better these days. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Media Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD) is taking a big content-related write-off.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 22, 2022
This week, we speak with Marta Norton, Chief Investment Officer for Morningstar Investment Management (MIM ). The firm manages or advises on about $250 billion in advisor assets. Norton’s responsibilities include equity, alternative and fixed income research, asset allocation, and portfolio management. Before joining Morningstar in 2005, Norton was an economist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and a research analyst at LECG LLC.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 24, 2022
These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of October 23rd. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for 2019 (Light Blue), 2020 (Black), 2021 (Blue) and 2022 (Red).
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 28, 2022
The big fines levied against the big banks is just the beginning. For RIAs to steer clear of the SEC, they need to do more than just prohibiting the usage of certain apps.
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Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 26, 2022
Strategy Why investors have turned away from actively managed funds. (on.ft.com) Why so few investors utilize managed futures. (blog.validea.com) There really are only four outcomes to a trade. (allstarcharts.com) Innovation Nokia ($NOK) is an object lesson in the innovator's dilemma. (ritholtz.com) Newly minted unicorns are once again a rarity. (wapo.st) a16z is feeling the pain of the crypto crash.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 22, 2022
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of BeanBox coffee, grab a seat in the lobby, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Rent Going Up? One Company’s Algorithm Could Be Why. Texas-based RealPage’s YieldStar software helps landlords set prices for apartments across the U.S. With rents soaring, critics are concerned that the company’s proprietary algorithm is hurting competition.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 26, 2022
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decreased in September; Completed Inventory Increased Brief excerpt: The next graph shows the months of supply by stage of construction. “Months of supply” is inventory at each stage, divided by the sales rate. There are 1.1 months of completed supply (red line). This is about two-thirds of the normal level.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 26, 2022
A new study shows why millennials may need to scrimp and save to equal their parents’ financial success.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
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