The Big Picture
OCTOBER 26, 2022
Today’s edition of “ Nobody Knows Anything ” is about a once-dominant mobile phone maker. Exactly 15 years ago, Forbes’s new cover story lauded Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Nokia’s CEO. The headline trumpeted: “Nokia, one billion customers – can anyone catch the cell phone king?” It was posted online October 26, 2007 — 15 years ago today.
Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 26, 2022
Roth conversions are, in essence, a way to pay income taxes on pre-tax retirement funds in exchange for future tax-free growth and withdrawals. The decision of whether or not to convert pre-tax assets to Roth is, on its surface, a simple one: If the assets in question would be taxed at a lower rate by converting them to Roth and paying tax on them today, versus waiting to pay the tax in the future when they are eventually withdrawn, then the Roth conversion makes sense.
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Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 24, 2022
Strategy How much has indexing saved investors in fees? (evidenceinvestor.com) Some investors may not understand when they take on leverage. (rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Companies Brad Gerstner on how to turn Meta's ($META) stock around. (medium.com) Big tech companies are sitting on their own bond market losses. (theinformation.com) Snowflake ($SNOW) is growing into its valuation.
Pragmatic Capitalism
OCTOBER 26, 2022
Bond vigilantes reflect the idea that bond investors can attack a government debt market and dictate terms that the government wouldn’t otherwise desire.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 25, 2022
My colleague Ben Carlson asked the question “ Why Isn’t Inflation Falling? ” There are some technical explanations, but before we get there, a quick reminder as to how we got here: The global pandemic forced governments around the world to shut their economies down; everything was closed, from schools to businesses, restaurants, entertainment venues, retail stores, and offices.
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Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 27, 2022
Markets Bitcoin has been boring of late. (ft.com) Not all (emerging) markets are created equal. (allstarcharts.com) Companies Zuck is running Meta ($META) into the ground. (ez.substack.com) Elon is trying to reassure Twitter ($TWTR) advertisers. (variety.com) Hedge funds Big money managers keep snapping up private credit shops. (ft.com) Multi-strategy hedge funds are the new fund of funds.
A Wealth of Common Sense
OCTOBER 28, 2022
There are very few hard and fast rules when it comes to the markets. Nothing works all the time. The greatest investors in the world can go through multi-year periods of underperformance. The dumbest investors in the world can go through multi-year periods of outperformance. These things happen because humans control the financial markets and humans can be erratic at times.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 28, 2022
is Mr. Market daring Jerome Powell to keep raising rates? That’s one way to read into today’s surging market — Nasdaq up 2.9%, the Dow tacking on over 800 points (2.6%), and the S&P 500 added 2.5%. Despite the carnage in big-cap tech stocks like Facebook, Amazon and Google, the Nasdaq is up 2% for the past week. The S&P500 has gained nearly 4% for the week, and is up almost 7% for the past 30 days.
Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 24, 2022
The choice of an advisory firm’s custodial affiliation is easily one of its most important business decisions. The advisory firm is the front end of the client relationship, but it entrusts client assets, and key aspects of their service, to a custodian that safeguards the money and provides the underlying platform. And given the logistical challenges of switching between custodians, inertia often leads firms to stick with the same custodian for years or decades, even when a better fit mig
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 26, 2022
Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Bob Seawright about how to make behavioral finance actionable. (peterlazaroff.com) Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk FIRE with Kiersten and Julien Saunders authors of a new book called "Cashing Out: Win the Wealth Game by Walking Away." (morningstar.com) Investing Bear markets have a tendency to compress investor time frames.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 28, 2022
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income increased $78.9 billion (0.4 percent) in September , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $71.3 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $113.0 billion (0.6 percent).
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 28, 2022
The Rolls Royce Spectre is the first electric car to come from the luxe auitomasker (owned by BMW); its all-electric powertrain produces 577 horsepower and 664 pound-feet of torque. The stats are impressive: 0-to-60 mph = 4.4 seconds. Top speed of 155 mph. 577 horsepower and 664 pound-feet of torque. Total driving range 260 miles. Charge from 10-80% full in 34 minutes.
A Wealth of Common Sense
OCTOBER 25, 2022
Whenever the next recession happens, every human being on the planet can take credit for calling it in advance. Everyone and their brother has been predicting an economic slowdown for months now. I guess when the Federal Reserve tells you they are willing to throw the economy into a recession to slow inflation, you should believe them. The weird thing is it would be hard to say we’re in a recession right now.
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Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 25, 2022
Markets Given the market downturn, why isn't the VIX higher? (ft.com) 52-week lows have dried up. (allstarcharts.com) Rates Why the rapid rise in short term interest rates is a big deal. (fortunesandfrictions.com) The 40 in 60/40 portfolio is looking a lot better these days. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Media Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD) is taking a big content-related write-off.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 27, 2022
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 22, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 36% above one year ago.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 27, 2022
We discussed how ephemeral and short-lived great success can be yesterday in Can Anyone Catch Nokia? As I was writing it, I had no idea it was a metaphor for what would happen a few hours later, a coincidental preface to a discussion about another mega-cap tech — META, aka Facebook. I asked Scott Galloway about which of the Four firms was most likely to falter, we (more or less) agreed that it was Facebook.
The Irrelevant Investor
OCTOBER 25, 2022
Today we learned that home prices had their largest drop since 2009. This is just a small preview of what I believe we’ll see in the coming months as the market adjusts to 7% mortgages. In fact, a lot of the economic data will likely worsen. We just heard from the Chief Business Economist at S&P Global opine on the most recent Global Flash US Services PMI report.
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Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 26, 2022
Strategy Why investors have turned away from actively managed funds. (on.ft.com) Why so few investors utilize managed futures. (blog.validea.com) There really are only four outcomes to a trade. (allstarcharts.com) Innovation Nokia ($NOK) is an object lesson in the innovator's dilemma. (ritholtz.com) Newly minted unicorns are once again a rarity. (wapo.st) a16z is feeling the pain of the crypto crash.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 28, 2022
From the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC): Apartment Market Softens, Sales Put on Hold Amidst Rising Rates and Economic Uncertainty Rising interest rates caused by the Federal Reserve’s ongoing efforts to combat inflation continue to impact the multifamily business. However, it is worth noting that the overall apartment market has begun to revert to pre-pandemic trends as rent growth is decreasing.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 28, 2022
My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • For Diving FAANG Stocks, It’s the End of an Era : The five FAANG stocks are on track for their worst simultaneous losses ever, a far cry from their late-2021 highs. The stocks—Facebook parent Meta Platforms, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google parent Alphabet—have posted double-digit declines this year for the first time.
The Irrelevant Investor
OCTOBER 28, 2022
Paul Samuelson once said, “The stock market has predicted nine of the last five recessions.” Said differently, a downturn in the market doesn’t always precede a downturn in the economy. Yes, the stock market is forward-looking, but sometimes it sees things that aren’t there. At its low, the S&P 500 was 25% below its high.
Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader
In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 28, 2022
Bonds The bond market is setting all sorts of historical records this year. (ft.com) Why TIPS failed just when investor needed them the most. (morningstar.com) Twitter Elon Musk tried to wriggle out of it, but he is now the proud owner of Twitter. (axios.com) Twitter's time as a public company was a relative disappointment for shareholders. (finance.yahoo.com) Apple Apple ($AAPL) is working hard to rid itself of excess cash.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 28, 2022
From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Waned 10.2% in September Pending home sales trailed off for the fourth consecutive month in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major regions recorded month-over-month and year-over-year declines in transactions. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, slumped 10.2% to 79.5 in September.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 22, 2022
This week, we speak with Marta Norton, Chief Investment Officer for Morningstar Investment Management (MIM ). The firm manages or advises on about $250 billion in advisor assets. Norton’s responsibilities include equity, alternative and fixed income research, asset allocation, and portfolio management. Before joining Morningstar in 2005, Norton was an economist with the Bureau of Labor Statistics and a research analyst at LECG LLC.
The Reformed Broker
OCTOBER 28, 2022
Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Mary Childs, Matt Levine, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss Matt’s epic cover-to-cover Bloomberg piece on crypto, Elon’s first moves as Twitter owner, Facebook’s collapse, the future of Credit Suisse, the best finance books, and more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to yo.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 28, 2022
The biz How an idea becomes a podcast: the case of the new 'Work Appropriate' pod. (annehelen.substack.com) Is listening to audiobooks really reading? (wired.com) How to write a podcast script. (casted.us) Business Jim O'Shaughnessy talks with Jeremiah Lowin of Prefect.io about making original mistakes. (infiniteloopspodcast.com) Frazer Rice talks the business of online dating with Irina Manta of the 'Strangers on the Internet' podcast.
Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 25, 2022
Welcome back to the 304th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Chad Chubb. Chad is the founder of WealthKeel, an independent virtual RIA based in Tampa, Florida that advises on over $100 million of assets for 110 client households. What's unique about Chad, though, is how he has not only implemented a “surge meeting” approach to meet with each of his ongoing clients during a two-month period twice a year, but has gone further to implement
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 22, 2022
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of BeanBox coffee, grab a seat in the lobby, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Rent Going Up? One Company’s Algorithm Could Be Why. Texas-based RealPage’s YieldStar software helps landlords set prices for apartments across the U.S. With rents soaring, critics are concerned that the company’s proprietary algorithm is hurting competition.
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