The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

For the first half of this year, I have steadfastly refused to join Club Recessionista. I have not believed we were already in a recession, and I was hopeful that a moderate Fed gradually raising rates to throttle inflation could execute that soft landing. No longer. As I mentioned to Tom Keene last week, Nick Timiraos in the Wall Street Journal revealed the Fed’s intention to raise rates 75 basis points brought a reckoning to my hopes of a non-recessionary growth slow down.

Economy 345

Economy Economics Engineering Food 345

Abnormal Returns

JULY 29, 2022

The biz Nonfiction podcasting has a plagarism problem. (theracket.news) Audiobook functionality will arrive inside Spotify ($SPOT) “quite imminently.” (variety.com) 45 podcast episodes to help you learn about investing. (overlookedalpha.com) The 15 best tech podcasts including the 'Techmeme Ride Home.' (fastcompany.com) Business Will Thorndike talks with Nick Howley who is the Founder and Executive Chairman of TransDigm ($TDG).

Investments 288

Investments Investing Management Marketing 288

The Reformed Broker

JULY 28, 2022

It’s been an honor and a pleasure writing, recording and filming for you guys all year. 2022 has been incredibly challenging as an investor, a financial advisor, an investment advisory CEO and a professional market commentator. Tough all around. Like everyone else, I’ve gotten some stuff right and some stuff wrong this year. Based on this week’s reaction to large cap technology company earnings and the F.

Financial Advisor 258

Financial Advisor Investments Investing Marketing 258

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 27, 2022

Financial planning is both an art and a science. While an advisor needs technical financial planning knowledge to create and implement plans for clients, soft skills that involve effective communication and relationship building are also crucial to both relate to prospects and clients and to understand their needs. Further, one of the most important qualitative ways an advisor can add value to clients is by helping them identify and select meaningful goals.

Financial Planning 246

Financial Planning Planning Clients Retirement 246

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

Accounting

The Big Picture

JULY 27, 2022

Today is Fed day, when we get the 75 bps increase that dramatically increases the odds of a recession. The main storyline is inflation, but the overlooked subplot here is Wages. I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic.

Medicine 331

Medicine Numbers Food Insurance 331

Pragmatic Capitalism

JULY 28, 2022

1) Are we in a recession? 2) The housing downturn is only just beginning. 3) Is the Fed pivoting to easing? .

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Nerd's Eye View

JULY 27, 2022

Financial planning is both an art and a science. While an advisor needs technical financial planning knowledge to create and implement plans for clients, soft skills that involve effective communication and relationship building are also crucial to both relate to prospects and clients and to understand their needs. Further, one of the most important qualitative ways an advisor can add value to clients is by helping them identify and select meaningful goals.

Financial Planning 246

Financial Planning Planning Clients Retirement 246

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. The diffusion index = 100. That is no longer the case today. The FOMC meeting on May 3-4 raised rates by 50 basis points, which was followed by the 75 basis point increase at the June 14-15 FOMC meeting. Taking rates to the 1.50%-1.75% range had some bite, and we see the impact of this higher cost of credit combined with inflation impacting the economy.

Economics 321

Economics Retail Banking Economy 321

Abnormal Returns

JULY 24, 2022

Top clicks this week Why most people will not run out of money in retirement. (mrmoneymustache.com) Five things to do as an investor in your 20's. (peterlazaroff.com) Why you should stop reading the news. (experimentalhistory.substack.com) Kids cost money, a lot of it. (rootofall.substack.com) Investing in stocks is bet on human ingenuity. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Jonathan Clements, "There’s what we think we want from our money—and then there’s what we truly want.

Retirement 163

Retirement Accounting Investments Investing 163

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

Accounting

A Wealth of Common Sense

JULY 28, 2022

A reader asks: As a long term investor (10-20 year horizon) is it worth selling portions of a stock when it’s up and taking some profits, maybe reinvesting when the price goes down or pocketing the money? Or, is it best to stay “all in” regardless of the ups and downs? There are two different ways to think about this question. One is the Charlie Munger approach.

Marketing 145

Marketing Marketing Asset Allocation Assets 145

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 28, 2022

Financial advisors are often innately inclined to set long-term goals and stay on the course to help their clients achieve their goals, as the advisor understands the bigger picture of having a financial roadmap and its benefits. However, when long-term goals in a financial plan are too rigid, many clients may not be naturally inclined to stick with those goals or even with the financial advisor.

Financial Planning 246

Financial Planning Financial Advisor Clients Planning 246

The Big Picture

JULY 23, 2022

This week, we speak with Graham Weaver, who is the founder and CEO of Alpine Investors, a private equity firm in San Francisco that invests in software and services. Graham has been in private equity for over 20 years, having started Alpine in his dorm room at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. We discuss how he launched a PE company in his dorm at Stanford’s GSB, and proceeded to “make every mistake in the book.” But his investors stayed with him, impressed by his commu

Communication 310

Communication Investing Investments Marketing 310

Calculated Risk

JULY 29, 2022

The BEA released the underlying details for the Q2 advance GDP report this morning. The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 11.7% annual pace in Q2. Investment in petroleum and natural gas structures increased in Q2 compared to Q1 and was up 31% year-over-year. Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP.

Commission 145

Commission Manufacturing Investments Investing 145

Advertisement

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

Accounting

A Wealth of Common Sense

JULY 26, 2022

A reader asks: Many right now are saying real estate is the only way to get a real return in a safe manner. Will you post some data on real estate vs. bonds vs. stocks? You always have to be careful when you use the word “safe” when it comes to investing. An investment that feels safe now could be very risky in the future and vice versa.

Assets 145

Assets Investments Investing Marketing 145

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 26, 2022

Welcome back to the 291st episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Amy Irvine. Amy is the owner of Rooted Planning Group, an independent RIA based in Corning, New York that oversees $67 million in assets under management for 175 client households. What's unique about Amy, though, is how she managed the complexities of starting her own RIA focused on Gen X women, and then dealt with unexpected growing pains as her business development worked ‘too wel

Financial Planner 246

Financial Planner Management Planning Financial Advisor 246

The Big Picture

JULY 28, 2022

Following a negative GDP print in the first quarter, a strong but inflation-racked economy expanded in the second quarter on a nominal basis, but contracted in real inflation-adjusted terms. BEA reported “Real gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter.

Government 299

Government Economy Economics Marketing 299

Calculated Risk

JULY 26, 2022

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3-month average of March, April and May prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Home Price Gain Of 19.7% In May The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.

Management 144

Management 144

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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

Banking

A Wealth of Common Sense

JULY 24, 2022

Three random thoughts on the current state of the stock market: (1) The top 10 stocks are getting smoked. One of the prevailing theories during this past bull market is the biggest stocks were carrying the S&P 500. The top 10 stocks now make up more than 30% of the index by market cap so it would make sense for this group to have an outsized impact on the performance of the market.

Investing 143

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 143

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 25, 2022

2022 was a year that began with high hopes as households were slowly re-emerging from pandemic shutdowns, markets were reaching new highs, and most advisory firms had growing momentum. Within just a few months, though, Omicron had led to another wave of at least partial shutdowns, inflation began to rear its ugly head in a way not seen in decades, and the market fell to its worst first-half start since 1970.

Education 244

Education Financial Planning Estate Planning CFP 244

The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • The 8 economists who decide if the U.S. is in a recession : Even if gross domestic product figures show a shrinking economy, a recession won’t officially have begun unless the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. ( Washington Post ). • Why doesn’t the Fed just hike 200bp all at once? The cases for and against bold, abrupt moves ( Noahpinion ). • Despite Headwinds, Institutions See Opportunities Private market returns have come down off th

Startup 298

Startup Economy Economics Planning 298

Calculated Risk

JULY 26, 2022

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 0.76%, down from 0.80% May. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 1.86% in June 2021. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

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Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

Numbers

The Reformed Broker

JULY 26, 2022

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ?Make or break moment – “Weak Earnings Reports Aren’t Fazing Investors After Brutal Year for Stocks” ?Recession is Consensus – Food price inflation crowding out spending on other goods, most no.

Food 141

Food Investments Investing Marketing 141

The Irrelevant Investor

JULY 26, 2022

The bad news is that the percentage of companies beating earnings is the lowest it’s been since 2015. The good news, at least in the short term, is that not bad might be good enough. Google, which missed on the top and bottom line for the second quarter, is up 3% in the after hours. The stock was down 30% from its highs going into the print, so it appears that investors had discounted the disappointment.

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The Big Picture

JULY 26, 2022

?. The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Graham Weaver, Alpine Investors , is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras on iTunes , Spotify , Stitcher , Google , Bloomberg , and Acast. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~. ANNOUNCER: This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio.

Consulting 298

Consulting Numbers Management Investing 298

Calculated Risk

JULY 28, 2022

The DOL reported : In the week ending July 23, the advance figure for s easonally adjusted initial claims was 256,000 , a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 10,000 from 251,000 to 261,000. The 4-week moving average was 249,250, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average.

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Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

Financial Advice

Alpha Architect

JULY 28, 2022

What are the consequences of widespread ESG-based portfolio exclusions on the expected returns of firms subject to exclusion? We consider two possible theoretical explanations. 1) Short-term price pressure around the exclusions leading to correction of mispricing going forward. 2) Long term changes in required returns. We use the exclusions of Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG -`The Oil Fund') to investigate.

Portfolio 131

Portfolio Government Investing Investments 131

Wealth Management

JULY 27, 2022

Oil, gas and energy ETFs posted the best returns over the past year.

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The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2022

The Q4 E-Tron and Q4 E-Tron Sportback are geared toward first-time EV buyers who want a mainstream, well-made, luxury SUV. Based on the same MEB electric platform as the parent company Volkswagen, it’s similar to the VW ID.4. Unlike their EV competitors, Audi is simply electrifying their current line of ICE SUVs. Compared to futuristic and spacey models like 2023 Genesis GV60 and the Kia EV6 , Audi’s crossovers present as very familiar vehicles that just happen to have an electric p

Taxes 290

Taxes 290