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The BEA released the underlying details for the Q2 advance GDP report this morning. The BEA reported that investment in non-residential structures decreased at a 11.7% annual pace in Q2. Investment in petroleum and natural gas structures increased in Q2 compared to Q1 and was up 31% year-over-year. Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows investment in offices, malls and lodging as a percent of GDP.
For the first half of this year, I have steadfastly refused to join Club Recessionista. I have not believed we were already in a recession, and I was hopeful that a moderate Fed gradually raising rates to throttle inflation could execute that soft landing. No longer. As I mentioned to Tom Keene last week, Nick Timiraos in the Wall Street Journal revealed the Fed’s intention to raise rates 75 basis points brought a reckoning to my hopes of a non-recessionary growth slow down.
The biz Nonfiction podcasting has a plagarism problem. (theracket.news) Audiobook functionality will arrive inside Spotify ($SPOT) “quite imminently.” (variety.com) 45 podcast episodes to help you learn about investing. (overlookedalpha.com) The 15 best tech podcasts including the 'Techmeme Ride Home.' (fastcompany.com) Business Will Thorndike talks with Nick Howley who is the Founder and Executive Chairman of TransDigm ($TDG).
Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3-month average of March, April and May prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Reports Annual Home Price Gain Of 19.7% In May The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S.
Today is Fed day, when we get the 75 bps increase that dramatically increases the odds of a recession. The main storyline is inflation, but the overlooked subplot here is Wages. I have detailed over the past decade or so the lagging nature of wages in America — deflationary in economic terms — and how that had begun to change in the late 2010s pre-pandemic.
Markets Making the case for high yield bonds right now. (marketwatch.com) Markets are adept at busting expectations. (compoundadvisors.com) Companies Why would another company trust Elon Musk again? (rationalwalk.com) The big food delivery companies are branching out. (wsj.com) Single-stock ETFs How single-stock ETFs work. (etftrends.com) Single-stock ETFs are another example of how leverage finds its way into the system.
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 0.76%, down from 0.80% May. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 1.86% in June 2021. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
The last time we looked at the State Coincident Indicators Index, all 50 States were in an economic expansion over the trailing 3 months. The diffusion index = 100. That is no longer the case today. The FOMC meeting on May 3-4 raised rates by 50 basis points, which was followed by the 75 basis point increase at the June 14-15 FOMC meeting. Taking rates to the 1.50%-1.75% range had some bite, and we see the impact of this higher cost of credit combined with inflation impacting the economy.
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
It’s been an honor and a pleasure writing, recording and filming for you guys all year. 2022 has been incredibly challenging as an investor, a financial advisor, an investment advisory CEO and a professional market commentator. Tough all around. Like everyone else, I’ve gotten some stuff right and some stuff wrong this year. Based on this week’s reaction to large cap technology company earnings and the F.
The DOL reported : In the week ending July 23, the advance figure for s easonally adjusted initial claims was 256,000 , a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 10,000 from 251,000 to 261,000. The 4-week moving average was 249,250, an increase of 6,250 from the previous week's revised average.
This week, we speak with Graham Weaver, who is the founder and CEO of Alpine Investors, a private equity firm in San Francisco that invests in software and services. Graham has been in private equity for over 20 years, having started Alpine in his dorm room at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. We discuss how he launched a PE company in his dorm at Stanford’s GSB, and proceeded to “make every mistake in the book.” But his investors stayed with him, impressed by his commu
Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Financial planning is both an art and a science. While an advisor needs technical financial planning knowledge to create and implement plans for clients, soft skills that involve effective communication and relationship building are also crucial to both relate to prospects and clients and to understand their needs. Further, one of the most important qualitative ways an advisor can add value to clients is by helping them identify and select meaningful goals.
Note: The second graph - residential investment as a percent of GDP - is useful in predicting a Fed induced recession. RI as a percent of GDP usually turns down well in advance of a recession. This will be something to watch. Earlier from the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Following a negative GDP print in the first quarter, a strong but inflation-racked economy expanded in the second quarter on a nominal basis, but contracted in real inflation-adjusted terms. BEA reported “Real gross domestic product decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, following a decrease of 1.6 percent in the first quarter.
Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Financial planning is both an art and a science. While an advisor needs technical financial planning knowledge to create and implement plans for clients, soft skills that involve effective communication and relationship building are also crucial to both relate to prospects and clients and to understand their needs. Further, one of the most important qualitative ways an advisor can add value to clients is by helping them identify and select meaningful goals.
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in June were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 590 thousand. The previous three months were revised down significantly. Sales of new single?family houses in June 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • The 8 economists who decide if the U.S. is in a recession : Even if gross domestic product figures show a shrinking economy, a recession won’t officially have begun unless the National Bureau of Economic Research says so. ( Washington Post ). • Why doesn’t the Fed just hike 200bp all at once? The cases for and against bold, abrupt moves ( Noahpinion ). • Despite Headwinds, Institutions See Opportunities Private market returns have come down off th
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Financial advisors are often innately inclined to set long-term goals and stay on the course to help their clients achieve their goals, as the advisor understands the bigger picture of having a financial roadmap and its benefits. However, when long-term goals in a financial plan are too rigid, many clients may not be naturally inclined to stick with those goals or even with the financial advisor.
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for June: Personal income increased $133.5 billion (0.6 percent) in June, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $120.4 billion (0.7 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $181.1 billion (1.1 percent).
?. The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Graham Weaver, Alpine Investors , is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras on iTunes , Spotify , Stitcher , Google , Bloomberg , and Acast. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~. ANNOUNCER: This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio.
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Welcome back to the 291st episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Amy Irvine. Amy is the owner of Rooted Planning Group, an independent RIA based in Corning, New York that oversees $67 million in assets under management for 175 client households. What's unique about Amy, though, is how she managed the complexities of starting her own RIA focused on Gen X women, and then dealt with unexpected growing pains as her business development worked ‘too wel
From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and no
The Q4 E-Tron and Q4 E-Tron Sportback are geared toward first-time EV buyers who want a mainstream, well-made, luxury SUV. Based on the same MEB electric platform as the parent company Volkswagen, it’s similar to the VW ID.4. Unlike their EV competitors, Audi is simply electrifying their current line of ICE SUVs. Compared to futuristic and spacey models like 2023 Genesis GV60 and the Kia EV6 , Audi’s crossovers present as very familiar vehicles that just happen to have an electric p
Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.
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