Sat.Aug 13, 2022 - Fri.Aug 19, 2022

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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Inventory Up 27% Year-over-year; New Listings Down 15%

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released yesterday from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Aug 13, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, but the pace slipped to 27% above one year ago.

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Passive vs. Active

The Big Picture

Yesterday I spent some time with Eric Balchunas recording a Masters in Business podcast. Balchunas is Senior ETF Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence and the author of “ The Bogle Effect: How John Bogle and Vanguard Turned Wall Street Inside Out and Saved Investors Trillions.”. It’s a fun conversation I’m sure everybody will enjoy. There are parts of our discussion I thought were obvious, but he convinced me as underappreciated: First and foremost, the intense disruption of low-c

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Where Are We in Return to the Office? Once Again, Nobody Is on the Same Page.

Wealth Management

The only trend that appears to be undisputable in the return to office story is that there’s no one overarching trend.

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

It’s good to be back! After a much needed vacation, got back into the swing of things this week… And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. These were the most read posts on the site this week, in case you missed it: The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 4.6% Compared to Same Week in 2019

Calculated Risk

From CoStar: STR: Seasonal Demand Shifts Bring Down US Weekly Hotel Performance Showing continued alignment with seasonal patterns, U.S. hotel performance fell slightly from the previous week, but showed improved comparisons with 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Aug. 13. Aug. 7-13, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*): • Occupancy: 68.5% (-4.6%) • Average daily rate (ADR): $152.34 (+15.8%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $104.30 (+10.5%) *Due to the pandemic

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Countertrend ?

The Big Picture

One of my favorite ways to contextualize market trends is to divide long periods of time into secular bull and bear markets. When we look at the past century, we can see decades-long eras where the economy is generally robust, supporting markets trending higher, with expanding multiples. We call these eras Secular Bull Markets. The best examples are 1946-66, 1982-2000, and 2013 forward.

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More Trending

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Personal finance links: consolation prizes

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with Joe Saul-Sehy co-author of a new book "Stacked: Your Super-Serious Guide to Modern Money Management." (citywireusa.com) Demetri Kofinas talks with Vitaliy Katsenelson author of "Soul in the Game." (hiddenforces.io) Investing On the emotional advantage of caring less about your investments. (humbledollar.com) Thinking about money management as water management.

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LA Port Traffic: Mostly Steady in July

Calculated Risk

Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast. Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

Retail 359
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A conversation with Jim Simons

The Big Picture

During the 2022 Abel lectures Jim Simons had a conversation with Nils A. Baas and Nicolai Tangen. The lectures were held at The University of Oslo, May 25th…. A conversation with Jim Simons: Mathematics, Common Sense and Good Luck. Source: The Abel Prize , June 13, 2022. The post A conversation with Jim Simons appeared first on The Big Picture.

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eMoney Advisor Names Susan McKenna New CEO

Wealth Management

McKenna has been serving as interim CEO since March 2022, when former CEO Ed O’Brien accepted a new position as head of technology at Fidelity Institutional.

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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Aug 20-21)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the FPA is planning to leave the Financial Planning Coalition (which also includes the CFP Board and NAPFA) at the end of the year. This follows the FPA’s announcement that it plans to pursue title reform for the term “financial planner”, and signals that there may be coordination challenges or divergent strategies among the three organi

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Housing Starts Decreased to 1.446 million Annual Rate in July

Calculated Risk

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately?owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,446,000. This is 9.6 percent below the revised June estimate of 1,599,000 and is 8.1 percent below the July 2021 rate of 1,573,000. Single?family housing starts in July were at a rate of 916,000; this is 10.1 percent below the revised June figure of 1,019,000.

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What Does the Market “Know” ?

The Big Picture

There is a link in yesterday’s reads that I violently disagreed with but found quite interesting nonetheless. Just as retweets aren’t endorsements, my AM reads include things I find fascinating, important, and well-written — regardless of whether or not they reflect my beliefs. If anything, finding contrary pieces helps reduce confirmation bias and curtails my time in a limited information bubble of my own construction.

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How an Online Marketplace Tackles the Problem of Illiquidity in Private Real Estate Investments

Wealth Management

Realto Inc. has created a platform for secondary trading of illiquid real estate investments and alternative securities.

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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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#FA Success Ep 294: Developing COI Referrals With Attorneys From An Attorney-Turned-Advisor, With Neel Shah

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 294th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Neel Shah. Neel is the Founder of Shah Total Planning, which itself is a combination of Beacon Wealth Solutions (an independent RIA) and Shah & Associates (a law firm) in Monroe Township, New Jersey, and oversees $57 million in assets under management for 50 client households.

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MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest Weekly Survey

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 12, 2022. The Refinance Index decreased 5 percent from the previous week and was 82 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Economy 348
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MiB: Kenneth Tropin, Graham Capital Management

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Kenneth Tropin, chairman and founder of Graham Capital Management , a multi-strategy quantitative hedge fund with $18 billion in assets under management. Prior to founding GCM in 1994, Tropin was president and chief executive officer of hedge fund John W. Henry & Company, and has worked with such legendary traders as John Henry and Paul Tudor Jones.

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How Firms Are Finding and Keeping Employees

Wealth Management

In a still-tight labor market, advisors are getting creative to retain and recruit staff.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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#FA Success Ep 294: Developing COI Referrals With Attorneys From An Attorney-Turned-Advisor, With Neel Shah

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 294th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Neel Shah. Neel is the Founder of Shah Total Planning, which itself is a combination of Beacon Wealth Solutions (an independent RIA) and Shah & Associates (a law firm) in Monroe Township, New Jersey, and oversees $57 million in assets under management for 50 client households.

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Housing Inventory August 15th Update: Up 30.3% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Inventory is still increasing, but the inventory build has slowed somewhat over the last several weeks. Still, inventory is increasing faster than in 2019 at this time of year (both in percentage terms and in total inventory added). Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years: 2022: +6.3K 2021: +10.4K 2020: -10.9K 2019: -0.1K Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 128% since then.

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1961 Mercedes-Benz 190SL

The Big Picture

Yet another lovely open-air driver to enjoy during the summer months: The famed Mercedes-Benz 300SL Gullwing pioneered many new technical innovations, such as fuel injection and a tubular space frame. It may have been gorgeous, but it was an expensive coupe. Enter the 190SL. Built on a shortened sedan platform, it was powered by a carbureted 1.9-liter inline-four making 120 HP paired with a four-speed manual transmission.

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Massachusetts Targets Single-Stock ETFs in B/D Sweep

Wealth Management

The Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth said retail investors should not consider the ETFs as long-term investments.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Advisory Agreement Statutory Requirements: What Advisors Need To Know To Stay Compliant

Nerd's Eye View

Registered Investment Advisers (RIAs) are generally required to enter into an advisory agreement with their clients prior to being hired for advisory services. And while there is no standard ‘template’ language applicable to all advisory agreements, there are a number of best practices that RIAs can follow in drafting and reviewing their agreements to ensure they can pass legal and regulatory muster.

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Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 1%

Calculated Risk

From BofA: Data this week have been a positive for GDP tracking in 2Q and 3Q. We took our 2Q GDP tracking up to -0.3% q/q saar from -0.9% owing to a strong upward revision to May retail sales. Meanwhile, we initiated our 3Q GDP tracking at 0.5% q/q saar [August 19 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +1.3% (qoq ar).

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • Holes in the Recession Story. With surging inflation and a new war in Europe, the first half of 2022 was understandably gloomy for economies and financial markets around the world. But recent developments offer some hope that the prevailing pessimism may no longer be as warranted as it was a few months ago. ( Project Syndicate ). • This Year, the Boss Is in the Office While Employees Hit the Beach : Managers hoping to coax workers back to the office are

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Approach Q4 Like a Championship Team

Wealth Management

Five steps to crush it until the end of the year.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.

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Podcast links: the history of interest rates

Abnormal Returns

Work Ezra Klein talks the new world of work with Anne Helen Petersen and Charlie Warzel authors of “Out of Office: The Big Problem and Bigger Promise of Working From Home.” (nytimes.com) Russ Roberts talks with Tyler Cowen, co-author of "Talent: How to Identify Energizers, Creatives, and Winners Around the World." (econtalk.org) Brett McKay talks with Melody Warnick author of "If You Could Live Anywhere: The Surprising Importance of Place in a Work-From-Anywhere World.

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Slowdown in Showings Suggests a Further Decline in Existing Home Sales in August

Calculated Risk

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Slowdown in Showings Suggests a Further Decline in Existing Home Sales in August A brief excerpt: The following data is courtesy of David Arbit, Director of Research at the Minneapolis Area REALTORS® and NorthstarMLS (posted with permission). Here is a link to their data. This graph shows the 7-day average showings for the Twin Cities area for 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022.

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • When is a Bear Market Over? Like many things in the market, there aren’t any hard and fast rules for this kind of thing, especially in real-time. Let’s look at the 2008 scenario as an example. The S&P 500 topped out in early October 2007 and bottomed in March 2009. On a price-only basis, the index didn’t reach those 2007 highs again until March 2013: ( Wealth of Common Sense ). • How Remote Work is Shifting Population Growth Across the U.S.

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11 Must Reads for the CRE Industry Today (Aug. 19, 2022)

Wealth Management

Sun Belt cities are becoming inflation epicenters in the U.S., according to The New York Times. Commercial Property Executive examines whether the industrial boom is ending. These are among today’s must reads from around the commercial real estate industry.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.