Sat.May 11, 2024 - Fri.May 17, 2024

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What Stagflation?

The Big Picture

The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. Unemployment remains at 60-year lows, and Inflation has plummeted from 9% down to the 3s. If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.” We have heard the S-word from Jamie Dimon , Stanley Druckenmiller , Bank of America , Barclays , Fox , Ma

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Monday links: destinations unknown

Abnormal Returns

Netflix Don't be surprised if Netflix ($NFLX) starts airing NFL games. (spyglass.org) How Netflix ($NFLX) became the future of television. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) BREIT How has BREIT shrugged off the downturn in commercial real estate? (insights.finominal.com) Why private real estate may not belong in a structure like BREIT. (citywire.com) Fund management Why closed-end funds can trade above NAV for extended periods of time.

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DoL’s Retirement Security Rule & PTE 2020-02 Amendment: What Advisers Need to Know Now About Giving Rollover Advice After Sept 23, 2024

Nerd's Eye View

On April 25, 2024, the Department of Labor (DoL) issued the final version of its Retirement Security Rule (the "Final Rule"), which imposes an ERISA fiduciary standard "that applies uniformly to all investments that retirement investors may make with respect to their retirement accounts ". The new rule represents the latest attempt by regulators to define the types of individuals and advice that are subject to a fiduciary obligation, following on the heels of the SEC's Regulation Best Interest (

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Diversification is About Decades

A Wealth of Common Sense

A lot of investors have abandoned international diversification (or at least strongly considered it) in recent years. I understand why this is happening. The U.S. stock market has destroyed all comers ever since the Great Financial Crisis ended. Since 2009, a total U.S. stock market index fund is up more than 660% while a total international index fund is up more like 180%.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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MiB: Savita Subramanian, US Equity & Quantitative Strategy, Bank of America

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Savita Subramanian , head of US Equity and Quantitative strategy at Bank of America. She also leads the firm’s environmental, social and governance research. She has been a ranked analyst in the Institutional Investor survey for the last eleven years. Prior to joining the firm in 2001, Subramanian was an analyst at Scudder Kemper Investments in New York and San Francisco.

Banking 167

More Trending

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#FA Success Ep 385: Unblocking Clients That Won’t Implement With A Journey Of Financial Health, With Danielle Howard

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome everyone! Welcome to the 385th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Danielle Howard. Danielle is the owner of Wealth By Design, a hybrid advisory firm based in Glenwood Springs, Colorado, that oversees about $35 million in assets under advisement for 35 client households. What's unique about Danielle, though, is how she has created a process she calls "Financial Fingerprints To Footprints ", where she helps clients who are struggling to implem

Clients 240
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Gambler’s Fallacy in the Stock Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

These are the trailing total returns for the U.S. stock market1 over various time frames: Year to date: +11% One year: +30% Five years: +94% Ten years: +223% Fifteen years: +679% Not bad considering we’ve had two bear markets in the past four years. If you put $10,000 into the U.S. stock market five years ago, your money has essentially doubled: Now look at the returns by year: 2019: +31% 2020: +21% 2021: +26% 2022.

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Housing May 13th Weekly Update: Inventory up 1.6% Week-over-week, Up 35.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.6% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 15.2% from the February bottom, and almost above the maximum for inventory last year! Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of May 10th, inventory was at 568 thousand (7-day average), compared to 560 thousand the prior week.

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Wednesday links: obscure interests

Abnormal Returns

Markets You don't need ZIRP for crazy stuff to happen in the stock market. (sherwood.news) Timing the meme stock mania is tough. (etf.com) Google AI-powered search disconnects us from the web. (platformer.news) How can Google assure us that AI-powered search isn't hallucinating? (theatlantic.com) How will AI search affect Google's advertising business?

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (May 18-19)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that a recent study indicates that while overall social media engagement for financial services companies was down in 2023 compared to the previous year, firms boosted their engagement through posts that were entirely original content (rather than sharing third-party content), spoke to the firm's or advisor's principles (with posts responding to current news topics lagging), an

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HBL Power Systems: Pioneering the Future of Defence and EV Innovation

Trade Brains

In today’s world, we’re constantly surrounded by a symphony of technology. From the quiet hum of our laptops to the dazzling display of our smartphones, these marvels rely on a hidden partnership between batteries and electronic solutions. Batteries and electronics are the unsung heroes of our modern world. Their seamless partnership is so deeply embedded in our daily lives that we often take them for granted.

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Social Media: The Value of Seeking Alpha’s Recommendations

Alpha Architect

The finding that the recommendations from SA articles resulted in statistically significant risk-adjusted alphas (returns unexplained by conventional academic models using factors such as the market, size, value, momentum, profitability, and quality for equity portfolios) is surprising given that the empirical evidence shows how difficult it is for institutional investors such as mutual funds to show outperformance beyond the randomly expected (as can be seen in the annual SPIVA Scorecards) beca

Media 128
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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

Top clicks this week We are in the midst of a historic bond bear market. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why TIPS are more attractive than nominal bonds at this point. (morningstar.com) Charlie Munger was constantly learning and "unlearning." (davisfunds.com) Stocks have stopped going up. (sherwood.news) Don't take your investing advice from TikTok. (ritholtz.com) The number of single-stock ETFs is growing.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 138: Crafting Your Own Stop-Doing List To Create Capacity For What Really Matters

Nerd's Eye View

In the initial stages of their careers, many financial advicers find that, with little revenue coming in and less than a full load of client-facing work to do, they spend the majority of their time on operations and marketing as they try to establish their practice. As a result, an advicer often has the capacity to say "yes" to any opportunity that comes along as they try to keep busy and (hopefully) improve their cash flow.

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CB Leading Economic Index: Softer Economic Conditions Ahead

Advisor Perspectives

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) decreased in April to its lowest level since April 2020. The index fell 0.6% from last month to 101.8. Overall, the LEI continues to signal softer economic conditions lay ahead for the U.S. economy.

Economics 127
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Heavy Truck Sales Increased in April

Calculated Risk

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Then heavy truck sales increased to a new record high of 570 thousand SAAR in April 2019.

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Sunday links: selling a product

Abnormal Returns

Markets No news is good news for the stock market. (tker.co) The stock market has gone nowhere the past 10 weeks. (allstarcharts.com) What Wall Street jargon really means. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Companies Apple ($AAPL) is now taking AI seriously. (nytimes.com) Adobe ($ADBE) is walking a fine line when it comes to AI. (theatlantic.com) Funds Mutual funds just keep closing.

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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Live From Wealth Management EDGE: SMAs, Inflation and the Fed

Wealth Management

Speakers at Wealth Management EDGE at The Diplomat Beach Resort in Hollywood Beach, Fla., discuss how investing strategies, including SMAs and how inflation and the Fed are impacting investing.

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The Destiny of Demographics

A Wealth of Common Sense

Demographics are destiny but the reactions to that destiny aren’t set in stone. Take a look at how things have changed from 2010 to today along with where we’re going in the future: The largest age brackets today are in the 30-34 and 35-39 range. Hello millennials. By the 2030s and 2040s the largest cohorts will be in their 30s to 50s. But look at how the older buckets will slowly fill up over time.

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YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter

Calculated Risk

Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned when services less rent of shelter was up around 8% year-over-year. This declined, but has turned up recently, and is now up 4.9% YoY. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through April2024.

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Friday links: a wide range of outcomes

Abnormal Returns

Markets Utility stocks are having a moment. (barrons.com) Bonds seem to have bottomed. (allstarcharts.com) Strategy Big round numbers don't matter unless you hold on. (theirrelevantinvestor.com) There are two approaches to investing. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) It's easy to forget the pain of volatility. (wggtb.substack.com) Venture capital Figma shareholders are getting an opportunity to sell stock, post-Adobe deal.

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Report: Half of Advisors to Recommend Crypto in the Next 12 Months

Wealth Management

The introduction of bitcoin ETFs is fueling increased advisor engagement with digital assets, according to a Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals survey.

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How Volatility and Turnover Affect Return Reversals

Alpha Architect

Higher volatility is associated with faster, initially stronger reversals, while lower turnover is associated with more persistent, ultimately stronger reversals How Volatility and Turnover Affect Return Reversals was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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NY Fed Q1 Report: Household Debt and Delinquency Rates Increased

Calculated Risk

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Rose by $184 Billion in Q1 2024; Delinquency Transition Rates Increased Across All Debt Types The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $184 billion (1.1%) in the first quarter of 2024, to $17.69 trillion.

Economics 120
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Podcast links: reviewing products

Abnormal Returns

Business Logan Bartlett talks with Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI. (podcasts.apple.com) Sam Dogen talks with Emily Luk, Co-Founder and CEO of Plenty. (sites.libsyn.com) Private credit Matt Reustle talks the evolution of private credit with Armen Panossian is the co-CEO of Oaktree. (joincolossus.com) Cameron Passmore and Benjamin Felix talk about whether private credit is all that special.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Wealth Management EDGE: RIAs Need Organic Growth, Diverse Clientele To Compete In 'Unprecedented' Sellers’ Market

Wealth Management

Numerous speakers at Wealth Management EDGE said buyers would want to see that its AUM wasn’t primarily tied to a small number of clients and that its growth wasn’t spurred mainly by the market.

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S&P 500 Snapshot: Fourth Consecutive Weekly Gain

Advisor Perspectives

The S&P 500 posted its fourth consecutive weekly gain after notching a new all-time high this week. The index is currently up 11.82% year to date and has recorded a new all-time high 23 times this year.

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Tuesday: PPI, Fed Chair Powell, Q1 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

Calculated Risk

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: What You See Today Won't Necessarily Be What You See Tomorrow With essentially nothing on the event calendar to start the new week, it was fair to expect a continuation of the same sideways drift that characterized last week. It's not the future can ever be predicted when it comes to markets, but we can say the flat trajectory is the least surprising outcome for Monday.

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