The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 4, 2022
Since it is late on a Friday, I thought I might share some quick thoughts about the week. I have been wondering, more than usual, about the disconnect between what we see in falling prices and the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation actions. It is difficult to reconcile Fed rhetoric with the actual price of Goods. One can reach only so many conclusions: Perhaps the Fed is right and everybody else is wrong.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 2, 2022
Strategy Investing is ultimately based on optimism. (fortunesandfrictions.com) Medical knowledge builds on itself. Financial knowledge not so much. (collabfund.com) Five arguments against a value stock revival. (blog.validea.com) Companies CVS and Walgreen's are likely to walk away from the opioid crisis without admitting culpability. (statnews.com) Men now make up 25% of Lululemon's ($LULU) revenue.
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Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 4, 2022
Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that as part of the ongoing integration between the merged companies, Charles Schwab plans to transition advisors currently on the TD Ameritrade custodial platform to Schwab’s platform over Labor Day weekend 2023.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 4, 2022
From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 261,000 in October , and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care, professional and technical services, and manufacturing. The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised down by 23,000, from +315,000 to +292,000, and the change for September was revised up by 52,000, from +263,000 to +315,000.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 3, 2022
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC increased the Fed Funds Rate another 75 bps yesterday, to 3.75-4.0%. Markets have given back much of October’s gains fairly quickly. I have been turning this over slowly in my mind, trying to assess their thinking here. I am not sure what models they use, what data they think is most important, what impact their actions will have, and perhaps most importantly, exactly what they are hoping to accomplish.
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A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 3, 2022
A reader asks: My question is how does asset allocation strategy change with your net worth? For example, should someone of the same age with $10 million in net worth have the same allocation as someone with $1 million? The bulk of my career has been spent working in the institutional investment space — mainly foundations and endowments. These huge pools of capital liked to call themselves “sophisticated” invest.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 31, 2022
Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.69% in September from 0.72% in August. The serious delinquency rate is down from 1.62% in September 2021. This is close to pre-pandemic levels. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure". The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.32% in August 2020 during the pandemic.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Today and tomorrow the Federal Reserve will hold its 7th Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year. It is given that we will see a 75-basis point increase Wednesday, but what gets said about the meeting on December 13-14 is even more important. The hopes are the Fed indicates a slower pace of rate increases, perhaps as low as 50 basis points in December.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 3, 2022
Companies Why is Zuck betting the company on the metaverse? (wsj.com) More tech companies are engaging in layoffs including Lyft ($LYFT). (wsj.com) Finance On the end of the SPAC boom. (morningstar.com) How signaling happens in the options market. (wsj.com) The Ark Venture fund is offering investors access to the private Twitter. (ft.com) Media How Moneyball has ruined baseball, and culture.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
I’m not a huge fan of the Federal Reserve’s current policy choices. They obviously had to do something about the persistently high inflation but I think they run the risk of overdoing it. The magnitude of their interest rate hikes increases the risk of something breaking in the financial system. The Fed is in a tough spot because they acted too late but also because they don’t want inflation to get so ba.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
CapWealth went up against an SEC staff of eight attorneys, jury experts and two paralegals, and won a rare victory related to share class disclosure conflicts. “This is David and Goliath,” the firm's co-founder said.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 29, 2022
?. This week, we speak with The Jeremies! Professor Jeremy Siegel at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is frequently voted Best professor at Wharton, and is the author of Stocks for the Long Run , Jeremy Schwartz is CIO at Wisdom Tree Asset Management , where he has worked since May 2005. We discuss how why stocks — and real estate, gold, and bonds — have performed over time.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 2, 2022
Morgan Housel Derek Thompson talks with Morgan Housel about what investing is for. (theringer.com) Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talks with Morgan Housel about money and storytelling. (morningstar.com) Investing Diversification allows you to not have to make big bets. (awealthofcommonsense.com) On the siren's song that is stock picking. (bestinterest.blog) Why banks don't necessarily offer their existing clients the best CD rates.
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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.
A Wealth of Common Sense
OCTOBER 30, 2022
Facebook went public in the spring of 2012. In the year before filing to become a public company, the social network brought in $3.7 billion in revenue. The stock price actually fell 50% from May 2012 through September of that year. From that point on it was one of the best-performing tech stocks in the entire market. From September 2012 through August 2021, Facebook shares were up a cool 2000%.
Pragmatic Capitalism
NOVEMBER 2, 2022
The last few years have been jarring in numerous ways. They’ve also forced me to reconsider how I help people navigate the financial world.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 29, 2022
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Bean Box coffee, grab a seat on the sofa, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Crypto Story Where it came from, what it all means, and why it still matters by Matt Levine. There was a moment not so long ago when I thought, “What if I’ve had this crypto thing all wrong?” I’m a doubting normie who, if I’m being honest, hasn’t always understood this alternate universe that’s been percolating and expanding for more than a decade now.
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 30, 2022
Top clicks this week Money market mutual funds may no longer be the best place for short term cash. (wsj.com) Through a statistical quirk, the Fed is causing the inflation it is fighting. (ritholtz.com) Zuck is running Meta ($META) into the ground. (ez.substack.com) Why so few investors utilize managed futures in their portfolios. (blog.validea.com) Why isn't everyone talking more about the increasingly inverted Treasury yield curve?
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 2, 2022
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 28, 2022. This week’s results include revised data to reflect an update to last week’s survey results.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 3, 2022
The lack of available space and spiking rents around major U.S. ports is leading tenants to diversify or relocate to smaller ports around the country.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 4, 2022
BMW’s image as the “ultimate driving machine” was built atop the sportiness of its high-performance coupe models. The “sharknose” E9 was BMW’s elegant flagship coupe sold in the US from 1968-1975. The E9 used an electronic fuel injection system that was state-of-the-art technology back then (most cars were still using carburetors). 200 HP made the 3.0 CSi really fast (at least for those days).
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 4, 2022
There is a lot of negativity in the world these days and I’m not just talking about bear markets, recessions and inflation. Negativity is much easier to latch onto because it fits in a headline or tweet or 30-second news clip. Progress doesn’t fit in a headline because it takes time to play out. The world is far from perfect these days but things really are getting better.
Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader
In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for October. Wards Auto estimates sales of 14.90 million SAAR in October 2022 (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), up 10.4% from the September sales rate, and up 12.7% from October 2021. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards Auto's estimate for October (red).
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 3, 2022
Direct indexing portfolios will be made available through the Morningstar Wealth Platform.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Fed Seen Aggressively Hiking to 5%, Triggering Global Recession : Survey of economists sees 75 basis-point hike, then slowing Three-quarters say the Fed will err by doing too much. ( Bloomberg ) see also Cash-Rich Consumers Could Mean Higher Interest Rates for Longer Buoyed by pandemic-fueled savings, consumers and businesses are proving less sensitive to tighter credit—complicating the Fed’s job. ( Wall Street Journal ). • Revenge of the Dow : Chang
Alpha Architect
NOVEMBER 4, 2022
Independent RIA firms seek to do what is "right" for the client, which often boils down to minimizing fees and taxes and increasing transparency/education (i.e., ETFs). But the "right" solution for an advisor's clients might not be available 'off-the-shelf' in the ETF market, or the advisor can't use ETFs because they are stuck "managing around" legacy portfolios and tax problems.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 3, 2022
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 29, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 40% above one year ago.
The Irrelevant Investor
NOVEMBER 1, 2022
Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Masterworks and AcreTrader: See here to learn more about investing in contemporary art and here for important disclosures* See here for more information on how to invest in farmland On today’s show we discuss: Three things dampening the pain (The Irrelevant Investor) Cash-rich consumers could mean higher interest rates for longer The economy is still in a post-pande.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 31, 2022
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Is the Stock Market Gaslighting Us? A downturn in the market doesn’t always precede a downturn in the economy. Yes, the stock market is forward-looking, but sometimes it sees things that aren’t there. At its low, the S&P 500 was 25% below its high. It’s hard to completely dismiss this as a leading indicator and I’m not here to do that, but while most drawdowns of this magnitude have led to economic contractions, they haven’t always. ( Irrelevant Inv
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