Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 22, 2022
Bitcoin daily chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com. I have been making notes, some of them incorrectly. Apologies offered. Generational Bottoms Bitcoin is Life Hoot of the Day (From May 2022). Hmm 6 months is up. On May 8, Bitcoin was $34,000. It's now under $16,000. That's OK because 6 months doesn't matter and $1BTC is still $1BTC. Bitcoin Log Chart.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 21, 2022
You may have missed this wonderful Josh Zumbrun column in the Wall Street Journal last week: “ Inflation and Unemployment Both Make You Miserable, but Maybe Not Equally.”. It’s one of those things that are so obvious no one ever stops to think about it – and so we have overlooked this for decades. 1. Stop for a moment and consider the original Misery Index formula as invented by the economist Arthur Okun : add the 3.7% unemployment rate ( BLS NFP ) to the 7.7% inflation rate as measured by the c
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The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 19, 2022
We made some industry news this week with the hiring of Ritholtz Wealth Management’s first President. You can read about it at Investment News here. And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
The biz Spotify's ($SPOT) Anchor now allows creators to use a 'one-button voice isolation feature.' (engadget.com) You have to invest upfront to create evergreen content. (casted.us) Companies Ben Thompson talks housing with Eric Wu, CEO of Opendoor ($OPEN). (stratechery.com) Matt Reustle talks with Nima Shayegh who is Managing Partner at Rumi Capital Partners about the business of Brookfield Asset Management ($BAM).
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
Demand Weakness Weighs On private sector business activity in November The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI™ shows and escalation in private sector demand weakness. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 (October: 48.2). 3-month low. Flash US Services Business Activity Index at 46.1 (October: 47.8). 3-month low. Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 (October: 50.7). 30-month low.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Of course it isn’t. Things change. Especially if we’re referring to the past performance of a particular investment strategy, portfolio manager, mutual fund or individual stock. But past performance of asset classes should be well understood. Especially the kind of past performance that’s taken place over longer stretches of time.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
Markets How do stocks beat inflation? (thereformedbroker.com) The S&P 500 is not the economy. (awealthofcommonsense.com) FTX Is the FTX blow up the end of crypto? (economist.com) Why did so many people have a blind spot for FTX? (on.ft.com) Why does Alameda Research own a stake in Farmington State Bank? (nytimes.com) LedgerX is one of the few FTX subsidiaries that did not file for bankruptcy.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 21, 2022
Please consider these COP 27 Closing Statements by the Secretary-General. COP27 took place not far from Mount Sinai, a site that is central to many faiths and to the story of Moses, or Musa. It’s fitting. Climate chaos is a crisis of biblical proportions. Instead of a burning bush, we face a burning planet. Justice for those on the frontlines who did so little to cause the crisis – including the victims of the recent floods in Pakistan that inundated one-third of the country.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
It’s Black Friday and you know what that means: Lots of promotional sales and lots of holiday retail spending forecasts. You can rely on the latter being ubiquitous and wrong; some by a little, most by a lot. At least, that’s what the statistically likely outcome is. As we have seen historically , holiday sales forecasts tend to be a reflection of people’s mood at the moment — not an actual measure of intended holiday spending.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
Among the several different types of retirement plans that are available to self-employed workers, solo 401(k) plans can offer the most flexibility and the ability to contribute the highest amount of tax-advantaged savings. But alongside those advantages, there are some specific rules and regulations that are unique to solo 401(k) plans, which can add to the complexity of setting up and maintaining a plan.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
Strategy The normalization of interest rates is going to change how people invest. (blairbellecurve.com) Why investors overreact to recent fund performance. (behaviouralinvestment.com) Why wealthy investor don't invest aggressively enough. (ft.com) Succession Bob Iger messed up succession at Disney ($DIS). Now he has a chance to fix it. (vox.com) Why Jack Welch regrets name Jeff Immelt his successor at GE ($GE).
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 24, 2022
Welcome Change Major retailers like Kohl’s, Target, Macy’s, Walmart, J.C. Penney, Best Buy, even Costco will be closed on Thanksgiving day but open as early as 5 a.m. or 6 a.m. on Black Friday according to BlackFriday.Com. That’s a welcome change but it puts all the more emphasis on Black Friday. Retailers Attempt to Lure Price-Weary Shoppers With Deep Discounts.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 20, 2022
A comprehensive look at CO2 emissions around the world and their specific sources: “Today, the Climate TRACE coalition released the most detailed facility-level global inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to date, including emissions data for 72,612 individual sources worldwide. The 70,000+ individual sites — including specific power plants, steel mills, urban road networks, and oil and gas fields — represent the top known sources of emissions in the power sector, oil and gas produc
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Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 22, 2022
Welcome back to the 308th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Matthew Blocki. Matthew is the CEO of Equilibrium Wealth Advisors, an independent RIA based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, that oversees more than $275 million in assets under management for 330 client households. What's unique about Matthew, though, is how he and his firm have implemented pre-meeting, during-meeting, and post-meeting checklists to create more efficient processes that not on
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 20, 2022
Strategy Five reasons for optimism, including 'expected returns are rising.' (humbledollar.com) It's easy to forget that U.S. equities don't always outperform international equities. (savantwealth.com) Lessons learned from the young Warren Buffett. (neckar.substack.com) Companies Why Penn National ($PENN) hitched its wagon to Dave Portnoy's star. (nytimes.com) Was AT&T ($T) purchase of Time Warner the worst deal in corporate history?
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
New Home Sales data from the Census Department, chart by Mish. Last month I noted huge new sales negative revisions for the August. This month the Census Department reports negative revisions for September. If the pattern holds, there will be negative revisions next month too. Please consider the New Residential Construction Report for October. New Home Sales Sales of new single?
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
Barry Ritholtz, Ritholtz Wealth Management Chairman & CIO and “Masters in Business” Bloomberg Radio & Podcast Host, discusses crypto contagion and the volatile price swings in bitcoin. Yield Hogs Are Always Problematic. ?. ? ?. Source: Bloomberg. The post 15% Yield Was Never Credible appeared first on The Big Picture.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 21, 2022
A common service model for many financial advisory firms is to schedule annual client meetings throughout the year where the advisor meets with each client in the month they started working with the firm, and conducts a comprehensive review of all planning topics for the client. Which means that on any given workday, advisors might find themselves reviewing one client’s portfolio and another’s estate plan in the morning, and having a meeting with a third client later in the afternoon
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 21, 2022
Strategy The best uncorrelated asset in a downturn is mindset. (thewaiterspad.com) Why you should spend as little time on investing as possible. (moontower.substack.com) Crypto Coinbase ($COIN) is feeling the effects of the FTX blowup. (observer.com) The discount on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC) keeps widening. (theblock.co) Companies Big Tech made the same problem: expecting Covid era behavior to continue.
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
Technology stocks make up nearly 24% of the S&P 500. And that number is probably understating things since many of the biggest companies aren’t technically in the tech sector. Amazon and Tesla are two of the biggest holdings in the consumer discretionary sector. Facebook, Google and Netflix are in the communications sector. Many of these companies are now such a part of our lives that it’s difficult to cla.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
My mid-week morning train WFH reads: • Eight key takeaways from 20 years of SPIVA data : Most active managers underperform most of the time. This conclusion originally came from examining U.S. mutual fund performance net of fees. Gross of fees, most active managers underperform most of the time. Most institutional managers underperform most of the time.
Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader
In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 21, 2022
Active inventory decreased slightly. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter ): 2022: -3.0K (smaller than usual decrease in inventory) 2021: -8.9K 2020: -10.5K 2019: -14.7K Altos reports inventory is down 0.5% week-over-week and down 1.5% from the peak on October 28th.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 20, 2022
Also on the site Don't borrow money to invest. (abnormalreturns.com) Humans have been consuming alcohol for millennia, but people are increasingly saying no. (abnormalreturns.com) Life is complicated, your workout doesn't have to be. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Joshua Brown, "Sam Bankman-Fried appears to have been among the most talented tricksters of all time.
Meb Faber Research
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
Episode #456: Marc Cohodes on SBF, Fraud, & The FTX Death Spiral Guest: Marc Cohodes is a famed short seller with 40-years of experience. He’s best known for exposing fraud at mortgage lender Novastar Financial. Date Recorded: 11/21/2022 | Run-Time: 1:06:23 Summary: Earlier this year, famed short-seller Marc Cohodes, who has investigated and brought […].
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 22, 2022
The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Marcus Shaw, CEO of AltFinance , is below. You can stream and download our full conversation, including the podcast extras on iTunes , Spotify , Stitcher , Google , YouTube , and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here. ~~~. ANNOUNCER: This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Alpha Architect
NOVEMBER 19, 2022
We examine trend-following rules when the stock returns follow a two-state process that randomly switches between bull and bear markets. Optimal Trend Following Rules in Two-State Regime-Switching Models was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
Avoiding ruin Building wealth means avoiding ruin. (dariusforoux.com) Don't borrow money to invest. (abnormalreturns.com) Investing Successful investing is boring. (onveston.substack.com) Why 'Is now a good time to invest?' is the wrong question. (monevator.com) You can't invest if you don't save. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why active management fails.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 18, 2022. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of Veterans Day.
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