Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 21, 2022
Active inventory decreased slightly. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter ): 2022: -3.0K (smaller than usual decrease in inventory) 2021: -8.9K 2020: -10.5K 2019: -14.7K Altos reports inventory is down 0.5% week-over-week and down 1.5% from the peak on October 28th.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 22, 2022
Bitcoin daily chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com. I have been making notes, some of them incorrectly. Apologies offered. Generational Bottoms Bitcoin is Life Hoot of the Day (From May 2022). Hmm 6 months is up. On May 8, Bitcoin was $34,000. It's now under $16,000. That's OK because 6 months doesn't matter and $1BTC is still $1BTC. Bitcoin Log Chart.
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The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 21, 2022
You may have missed this wonderful Josh Zumbrun column in the Wall Street Journal last week: “ Inflation and Unemployment Both Make You Miserable, but Maybe Not Equally.”. It’s one of those things that are so obvious no one ever stops to think about it – and so we have overlooked this for decades. 1. Stop for a moment and consider the original Misery Index formula as invented by the economist Arthur Okun : add the 3.7% unemployment rate ( BLS NFP ) to the 7.7% inflation rate as measured by the c
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 22, 2022
A new study finds more Americans tapping their retirement accounts early with the economy on shaky ground.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 18, 2022. Last week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of Veterans Day.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
Demand Weakness Weighs On private sector business activity in November The S&P Global Flash US Composite PMI™ shows and escalation in private sector demand weakness. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 (October: 48.2). 3-month low. Flash US Services Business Activity Index at 46.1 (October: 47.8). 3-month low. Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 (October: 50.7). 30-month low.
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Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 21, 2022
Even as rent growth slows down compared to earlier in the year, many markets are still seeing strong numbers.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
From BofA: On net, today's data pushed up our 4Q US GDP tracking from 1.4% q/q saar to 1.8% q/q saar and left our 3Q US GDP tracking unchanged at 3.0% q/q saar. [Nov 23rd estimate] emphasis added From Goldman: We boosted our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.5pp to +1.5% (qoq ar). [Nov 23rd estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 4.3 percent on November 23, up from 4.2 percent on Novem
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 19, 2022
We made some industry news this week with the hiring of Ritholtz Wealth Management’s first President. You can read about it at Investment News here. And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
It’s Black Friday and you know what that means: Lots of promotional sales and lots of holiday retail spending forecasts. You can rely on the latter being ubiquitous and wrong; some by a little, most by a lot. At least, that’s what the statistically likely outcome is. As we have seen historically , holiday sales forecasts tend to be a reflection of people’s mood at the moment — not an actual measure of intended holiday spending.
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Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 22, 2022
Use all five of your senses when analyzing what you're putting out there for potential clients to see for the first time.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 24, 2022
Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago) 1) The Unemployment Rate is Near 50 Year Low The unemployment rate was at 3.7% in October. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% in April 2020 (the highest since the Great Depression). The unemployment rate is down from 4.6% a year ago (October 2021).
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
The biz Spotify's ($SPOT) Anchor now allows creators to use a 'one-button voice isolation feature.' (engadget.com) You have to invest upfront to create evergreen content. (casted.us) Companies Ben Thompson talks housing with Eric Wu, CEO of Opendoor ($OPEN). (stratechery.com) Matt Reustle talks with Nima Shayegh who is Managing Partner at Rumi Capital Partners about the business of Brookfield Asset Management ($BAM).
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 20, 2022
A comprehensive look at CO2 emissions around the world and their specific sources: “Today, the Climate TRACE coalition released the most detailed facility-level global inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to date, including emissions data for 72,612 individual sources worldwide. The 70,000+ individual sites — including specific power plants, steel mills, urban road networks, and oil and gas fields — represent the top known sources of emissions in the power sector, oil and gas produc
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Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
Wednesday, December 14, 2022 | 2:00 PM ET
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 19, 2022
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: • October Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.43 million SAAR in October • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October; California Sales off 37% YoY, Prices Fall; Early Read on October Sales • Lawler: Are US Rents Falling?
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
Markets How do stocks beat inflation? (thereformedbroker.com) The S&P 500 is not the economy. (awealthofcommonsense.com) FTX Is the FTX blow up the end of crypto? (economist.com) Why did so many people have a blind spot for FTX? (on.ft.com) Why does Alameda Research own a stake in Farmington State Bank? (nytimes.com) LedgerX is one of the few FTX subsidiaries that did not file for bankruptcy.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
Barry Ritholtz, Ritholtz Wealth Management Chairman & CIO and “Masters in Business” Bloomberg Radio & Podcast Host, discusses crypto contagion and the volatile price swings in bitcoin. Yield Hogs Are Always Problematic. ?. ? ?. Source: Bloomberg. The post 15% Yield Was Never Credible appeared first on The Big Picture.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
How many times did you proactively ask a social contact to have a business conversation with you?
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 21, 2022
Please consider these COP 27 Closing Statements by the Secretary-General. COP27 took place not far from Mount Sinai, a site that is central to many faiths and to the story of Moses, or Musa. It’s fitting. Climate chaos is a crisis of biblical proportions. Instead of a burning bush, we face a burning planet. Justice for those on the frontlines who did so little to cause the crisis – including the victims of the recent floods in Pakistan that inundated one-third of the country.
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Of course it isn’t. Things change. Especially if we’re referring to the past performance of a particular investment strategy, portfolio manager, mutual fund or individual stock. But past performance of asset classes should be well understood. Especially the kind of past performance that’s taken place over longer stretches of time.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in October was 0.66%, down from 0.67% September. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 1.32% in October 2021. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 21, 2022
Lessons learned from professional football team owners on business succession.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
Among the several different types of retirement plans that are available to self-employed workers, solo 401(k) plans can offer the most flexibility and the ability to contribute the highest amount of tax-advantaged savings. But alongside those advantages, there are some specific rules and regulations that are unique to solo 401(k) plans, which can add to the complexity of setting up and maintaining a plan.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
Strategy The normalization of interest rates is going to change how people invest. (blairbellecurve.com) Why investors overreact to recent fund performance. (behaviouralinvestment.com) Why wealthy investor don't invest aggressively enough. (ft.com) Succession Bob Iger messed up succession at Disney ($DIS). Now he has a chance to fix it. (vox.com) Why Jack Welch regrets name Jeff Immelt his successor at GE ($GE).
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 25, 2022
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller, FHFA House Prices Indexes and Conforming Loan Limits will be released on Tuesday Brief excerpt: Last week, the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) reported that median house prices were up 6.6% year-over-year (YoY) in October. This is down from the peak growth rate of 25.2% YoY in May 2021.
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Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 23, 2022
A review of the varying approaches taken in directing fiduciaries.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 22, 2022
Welcome back to the 308th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Matthew Blocki. Matthew is the CEO of Equilibrium Wealth Advisors, an independent RIA based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, that oversees more than $275 million in assets under management for 330 client households. What's unique about Matthew, though, is how he and his firm have implemented pre-meeting, during-meeting, and post-meeting checklists to create more efficient processes that not on
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 20, 2022
Strategy Five reasons for optimism, including 'expected returns are rising.' (humbledollar.com) It's easy to forget that U.S. equities don't always outperform international equities. (savantwealth.com) Lessons learned from the young Warren Buffett. (neckar.substack.com) Companies Why Penn National ($PENN) hitched its wagon to Dave Portnoy's star. (nytimes.com) Was AT&T ($T) purchase of Time Warner the worst deal in corporate history?
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 22, 2022
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Likely "Dramatic shift" in Household Formation has "Major implications" for 2023 A brief excerpt: Below is a chart showing the CPS/ASEC estimates of the % of 25-34 year olds living alone. According to CPS/ASEC estimates, the % of adults (18+) living alone jumped to 14.9% in March 2022 from 14.4% in March 2021, and the % of households with just one member climbed to 28.9% from 28.2%.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
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