The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
. There is a new 60/40 in town, and it is the contribution to inflation from consumer demand for goods and the pandemic-broken supply chain. That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Over the summer, he posed a fascinating question: How Much Did Supply Constraints Boost U.S. Inflation?
The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
Glamour is a supernatural form of mental compulsion or influence that is specific to vampires. Glamouring is similar to hypnosis, and while all vampires have this power, it needs to be taught as it does not appear to come naturally… The process of glamouring begins with eye contact between a vampire and a respondent. Once eye contact is made, the respondent is held in a trance, making them susceptible to the pow.
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Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
Strong Recession Signal Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 10-year Treasury Note was only more inverted ahead of the 2001 recession. Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 30-year long bond has only been more inverted a couple of times. This is a very strong recession signal. Reducing Inflation Without a Recession Might Not Be Feasible I's unusual for the Fed to be this candid but Kansas City Fed President Esther George says Reducing Inflation Without a Rece
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 15, 2022
Bonds Mortgage bond buyers are on strike. (wsj.com) After the sell-off, how attractive are muni bonds? (morningstar.com) Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury bond market has dried up. (ft.com) Strategy Rubin Miller, "Nothing about being a great investor requires imagination." (fortunesandfrictions.com) Ben Carlson, "You’re never going to get caught up in a Ponzi Scheme investing in a total stock market index fund.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 14, 2022
I wonder how far my view of the universe is from (objective) reality. My pal Dave Nadig suggests that we are all much further away from any sort of recognition of the true universe than we suspect. We chatted about this last week, and the more I thought about it, the further away from reality it turns out that we actually are. Best I can figure, we may all be at least six degrees 1 away from truly comprehending, well, anything: 1.
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Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 13, 2022
Integration Issue or Fraud Issue? An ATX notice says " Due to the current market situation, the integration is taking longer than usual." Is this an integration issue or something else? Please consider the AAX announcement Forward Through Adversity. AAX scheduled a system upgrade that will help protect our users from the multiple malicious attacks that we’ve observed during this vulnerable time.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that AdvisorTech giant Envestnet has announced a partnership with New Zealand-based FNZ that will allow Envestnet to offer custodial services to advisors beginning in the second half of 2023. At a time of significant change in the RIA custodial space, epitomized by the ‘Schwabitrade’ integration (also in late 2023), Envestnet’s custodial offe
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
So, the whole house is down with Covid. I had some minor symptoms I assumed were vaccine side effects, but I kept testing negative. By the time I tested positive it was way too late for Paxlovid. I isolated to keep everyone else safe. Too late! Mrs. Big Picture went from no symptoms to full-on flu 2 days after me. Paxlovid helped her dramatically — she went from worse than me to much better in 24 hours.
Pragmatic Capitalism
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
In this video we discuss the collapse of FTX and the crypto markets and what we can learn from this bear market.
Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant
Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
Data from BLS, calculation and chart by Mish. Definitions The Civilian Noninstitutional Population is defined as persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, who are not inmates of institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces. The participation rate is the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
With inflation running hot, a potential recession looming, and both stock and bond markets seeing significant drops so far this year, there is no shortage of potential stressors for financial planning clients. And as crises arise and stress builds up, some clients may reach a tipping point where they seek out their advisor looking for answers to ensure their financial plan remains on track.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
My morning train WFH reads: • Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced boy king of crypto, explained : He was a billionaire who had quickly amassed political and philanthropic influence. What happened? ( Vox ). • Electric Vehicles Start to Enter the Car-Buying Mainstream : While sales are still skewed toward affluent buyers, more people are choosing electric vehicles to save money. ( New York Times ) see also Toyota to Unveil New Prius as Hybrids Lose Luster to Battery EVs : Sales of the pioneering hybr
Pragmatic Capitalism
NOVEMBER 15, 2022
I’ve had three big investing epiphanys in my investing career. The first big epiphany was that macro matters much more than micro.
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Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St. Louis Fed. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports Existing-Home Sales Slumped 5.9% in October Existing Home Sales Key Points Existing-home sales faded for the ninth month in a row to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million. Sales fell 5.9% from September and 28.4% from one year ago.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
For many financial advisors, improving business development strategies can be a challenging task to address. With the myriad tools available to advisors that help them analyze the potential outcomes of their ideas and strategies, collecting the data to do so has become easier than ever. At the same time, though, over-analyzing strategies prior to implementing them can create a substantial gap between ideating a plan and actually putting it into motion.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 13, 2022
Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • ‘What if Yale finds out?’ : Suicidal students are pressured to withdraw from Yale, then have to apply to get back into the university ( Washington Post ). • The Incredibly Stupid Catastrophe Caused by Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX : A crypto implosion for the history books. ( Slate ) see also Bankman-Fried’s Cabal of Roommates in the Bahamas Ran His Crypto Empire – and Dated.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 13, 2022
Also on the site Can a business go from 'extreme reliability' to 'unreasonable hospitality'? (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week How to live a 'stealth wealth' lifestyle. (financial-imagineer.com) The risk/reward equation for bonds has done a 180. (pragcap.com) How FTX unraveled. (thediff.co) Rich people don't typically get rich on alternative investments.
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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 15, 2022
Producer Price Index from BLS, chart by Mish. Please consider the BLS Producer Price Index report for October 2022. PPI Key Month-Over-Month Details The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2 percent in October, seasonally adjusted. Final demand prices rose 0.2 percent in September and were unchanged in August. In October, the rise in the index for final demand can be attributed to a 0.6-percent advance in prices for final demand goods.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 15, 2022
Welcome back to the 307th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Stacey Hyde. Stacey is the President of Envision Financial Planning, an independent RIA based in Memphis, Tennessee, that oversees nearly $200 million in assets under management for 206 client households. What's unique about Stacey, though, is how, to gain more flexibility and independence for her firm, she and her partner decided to drop their FINRA licenses and launch their own RIA…
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 14, 2022
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Big Investors Are Giving Up on Crypto Markets Going Mainstream : Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier hasn’t worked for investors Crypto won’t ‘find a home in institutional asset allocation’. ( Bloomberg ). • Good News is Good News : Good News ( Irrelevant Investor ) but see also Move Over, Inflation: Here Comes the Earnings Crunch : Even as markets delight in the prospect of smaller rate increases from the Federal Reserve, earnings are becoming more of
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 13, 2022
Markets The U.S. has been outperforming international equities for some 15 years. (compoundadvisors.com) More industry sectors have regained their 200 day moving average. (allstarcharts.com) FTX The collapse of FTX is a hard reset for the industry. (generalist.com) FTX customers have a long road ahead getting their money back. (wsj.com) FTX is a tangled web of subsidiaries and investments.
Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader
In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
Seasonally-adjusted, annualized (SAAR) housing data from commerce department, chart by Mish. The Commerce Department's New Residential Construction Report shows housing starts and permits drifting lower. Building Permits Privately?owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,526,000. This is 2.4 percent below the revised September rate of 1,564,000 and is 10.1 percent below the October 2021 rate of 1,698,000.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 14, 2022
In the not-so-distant past, the typical career path toward becoming a financial advisor was to build up a book of business on one’s own, often by either tapping into one’s own personal networks or cold-calling prospective clients in bulk to generate enough business to gain a foothold. But the obvious flaw with this ‘eat-what-you-kill’ model was that newer advisors overwhelmingly succeeded or failed – not by virtue of the quality of advice they gave to their clients,
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Scott Galloway once said, “It’s never been easier to become a billionaire, or harder to become a millionaire.” I’m not sure I agree but it does seem like more people want to become a billionaire these days. I honestly don’t think it’s worth it. More money in your life is obviously better than less money but only up to a certain point.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Demand for design services decreases considerably Demand for design services from architecture firms softened considerably in October, according to a new report from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for October was 47.7, the first decline in billings since January 2021 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings).
Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor
During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.
Alpha Architect
NOVEMBER 14, 2022
Industry and factor momentum should be viewed as recent developments in the wider momentum story, although these aggregated measures of momentum lack any theoretical foundation. Is there a theoretical foundation behind industry and factor momentum was originally published at Alpha Architect. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
The biz 1 in 5 Americans listen to a podcast on a daily basis. (theverge.com) Podcasting is growing its 'share of ear.' (edisonresearch.com) Companies Patrick O'Shaughnessy talks with Parker Conrad who is co-founder and CEO of Rippling. (joincolossus.com) Shane Parrish talks growth with Shopify ($SHOP) co-founder and CEO Tobi Lütke. (fs.blog) Benjamin Gilbert and David Rosenthal talk about the history of Qualcom ($QCOM).
A Wealth of Common Sense
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
A reader asks: I’ve been minimally invested in bonds as a long-term investor but if I can get 5% or more interest, I’d love to allocate funds and lock that in for as long as possible. I’m looking at corporate investment grade new issues and they largely seem to be callable in a year. While I would be happy if rates came down and I got my principal back in a year, I’d also be happy holding them if they are not call.
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