The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
. There is a new 60/40 in town, and it is the contribution to inflation from consumer demand for goods and the pandemic-broken supply chain. That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Over the summer, he posed a fascinating question: How Much Did Supply Constraints Boost U.S. Inflation?
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Demand for design services decreases considerably Demand for design services from architecture firms softened considerably in October, according to a new report from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for October was 47.7, the first decline in billings since January 2021 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings).
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The Reformed Broker
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
Glamour is a supernatural form of mental compulsion or influence that is specific to vampires. Glamouring is similar to hypnosis, and while all vampires have this power, it needs to be taught as it does not appear to come naturally… The process of glamouring begins with eye contact between a vampire and a respondent. Once eye contact is made, the respondent is held in a trance, making them susceptible to the pow.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
RV parks have grown in popularity with consumers during the pandemic. Investors have noticed the trend.
Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker
Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 14, 2022
I wonder how far my view of the universe is from (objective) reality. My pal Dave Nadig suggests that we are all much further away from any sort of recognition of the true universe than we suspect. We chatted about this last week, and the more I thought about it, the further away from reality it turns out that we actually are. Best I can figure, we may all be at least six degrees 1 away from truly comprehending, well, anything: 1.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Nov 12, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 45% above one year ago.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
The most critical expertise needed is in the areas of taxes, legal title, recognition, liquidity and premiums.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
So, the whole house is down with Covid. I had some minor symptoms I assumed were vaccine side effects, but I kept testing negative. By the time I tested positive it was way too late for Paxlovid. I isolated to keep everyone else safe. Too late! Mrs. Big Picture went from no symptoms to full-on flu 2 days after me. Paxlovid helped her dramatically — she went from worse than me to much better in 24 hours.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
The DOL reported : In the week ending November 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 222,000 , a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 225,000 to 226,000. The 4-week moving average was 221,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week's revised average.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
Strong Recession Signal Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 10-year Treasury Note was only more inverted ahead of the 2001 recession. Since 1990, the spread between 30-month T-Bills and the 30-year long bond has only been more inverted a couple of times. This is a very strong recession signal. Reducing Inflation Without a Recession Might Not Be Feasible I's unusual for the Fed to be this candid but Kansas City Fed President Esther George says Reducing Inflation Without a Rece
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
They do the work to strengthen their interpersonal skills.
Abnormal Returns
NOVEMBER 15, 2022
Bonds Mortgage bond buyers are on strike. (wsj.com) After the sell-off, how attractive are muni bonds? (morningstar.com) Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury bond market has dried up. (ft.com) Strategy Rubin Miller, "Nothing about being a great investor requires imagination." (fortunesandfrictions.com) Ben Carlson, "You’re never going to get caught up in a Ponzi Scheme investing in a total stock market index fund.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 15, 2022
From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Reaches $16.51 trillion in Q3 2022; Mortgage and Auto Loan Originations Decline The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows an increase in total household debt in the third quarter of 2022, increasing by $351 billion (2.2%) to $16.51 trillion.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 13, 2022
Integration Issue or Fraud Issue? An ATX notice says " Due to the current market situation, the integration is taking longer than usual." Is this an integration issue or something else? Please consider the AAX announcement Forward Through Adversity. AAX scheduled a system upgrade that will help protect our users from the multiple malicious attacks that we’ve observed during this vulnerable time.
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Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
Investors in the sector have been more reluctant to close deals as the cost of capital rises. But given a strong outlook for income growth, many acquisitions are still going through.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that AdvisorTech giant Envestnet has announced a partnership with New Zealand-based FNZ that will allow Envestnet to offer custodial services to advisors beginning in the second half of 2023. At a time of significant change in the RIA custodial space, epitomized by the ‘Schwabitrade’ integration (also in late 2023), Envestnet’s custodial offe
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: October Housing Starts: Record Number of Housing Units Under Construction Excerpt: The fourth graph shows housing starts under construction, Seasonally Adjusted (SA). Red is single family units. Currently there are 794 thousand single family units (red) under construction (SA). This is below the previous six months, and 36 thousand below the recent peak in April and May.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
My morning train WFH reads: • Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced boy king of crypto, explained : He was a billionaire who had quickly amassed political and philanthropic influence. What happened? ( Vox ). • Electric Vehicles Start to Enter the Car-Buying Mainstream : While sales are still skewed toward affluent buyers, more people are choosing electric vehicles to save money. ( New York Times ) see also Toyota to Unveil New Prius as Hybrids Lose Luster to Battery EVs : Sales of the pioneering hybr
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 14, 2022
The decrease in October moving intentions was the sixth straight and coincides with a rapid run-up in mortgage rates, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey data.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
With inflation running hot, a potential recession looming, and both stock and bond markets seeing significant drops so far this year, there is no shortage of potential stressors for financial planning clients. And as crises arise and stress builds up, some clients may reach a tipping point where they seek out their advisor looking for answers to ensure their financial plan remains on track.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Notes: The expansion to the Panama Canal was completed in 2016 (As I noted a few years ago ), and some of the traffic that used the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach is probably going through the canal. This might be impacting TEUs on the West Coast. Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
The Big Picture
NOVEMBER 13, 2022
Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures: • ‘What if Yale finds out?’ : Suicidal students are pressured to withdraw from Yale, then have to apply to get back into the university ( Washington Post ). • The Incredibly Stupid Catastrophe Caused by Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX : A crypto implosion for the history books. ( Slate ) see also Bankman-Fried’s Cabal of Roommates in the Bahamas Ran His Crypto Empire – and Dated.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
Executives outline plans to roll out private wealth services, and move deeper into the enterprise market targeting trust banks and insurance companies.
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 17, 2022
For many financial advisors, improving business development strategies can be a challenging task to address. With the myriad tools available to advisors that help them analyze the potential outcomes of their ideas and strategies, collecting the data to do so has become easier than ever. At the same time, though, over-analyzing strategies prior to implementing them can create a substantial gap between ideating a plan and actually putting it into motion.
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Slumped 5.9% in October Existing-home sales retreated for the ninth straight month in October, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions registered month-over-month and year-over-year declines. Total existing-home sales - completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – decreased 5.9% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million in October.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 16, 2022
Data from BLS, calculation and chart by Mish. Definitions The Civilian Noninstitutional Population is defined as persons 16 years of age and older residing in the 50 states and the District of Columbia, who are not inmates of institutions (e.g., penal and mental facilities, homes for the aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces. The participation rate is the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Wealth Management
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Unlike CDOs, which collapsed during the housing crisis, not a single AAA CLO has defaulted since the inception of the asset class 30 years ago
Nerd's Eye View
NOVEMBER 15, 2022
Welcome back to the 307th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Stacey Hyde. Stacey is the President of Envision Financial Planning, an independent RIA based in Memphis, Tennessee, that oversees nearly $200 million in assets under management for 206 client households. What's unique about Stacey, though, is how, to gain more flexibility and independence for her firm, she and her partner decided to drop their FINRA licenses and launch their own RIA…
Calculated Risk
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.43 million SAAR in October Excerpt: On prices, the NAR reported: The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was $379,100, a gain of 6.6% from October 2021 ($355,700), as prices rose in all regions. This marks 128 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record.
Mish Talk
NOVEMBER 18, 2022
Existing home sales from the National Association of Realtors via St. Louis Fed. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports Existing-Home Sales Slumped 5.9% in October Existing Home Sales Key Points Existing-home sales faded for the ninth month in a row to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million. Sales fell 5.9% from September and 28.4% from one year ago.
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