Sat.Jan 07, 2023 - Fri.Jan 13, 2023

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What Makes Financial Advisors Happier: More Time Or More Money?

Nerd's Eye View

While it may be easy to assume that having more money would make a person happier by opening consumption opportunities unavailable to those with less income, experienced advisors can likely identify many examples of high-income individuals who are unhappy with their lives. To provide a more holistic view, researchers have sought to assess whether increased income leads to greater happiness on two dimensions: emotional wellbeing (how an individual feels today) and evaluative wellbeing (how an ind

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Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.4% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.4% in November

Calculated Risk

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in December. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% in December. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Food 363
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Why Inflation Has Been Falling…

The Big Picture

It may surprise you to learn that during this cycle of falling inflation, there seems to be little correlation with rising Fed Rates. This is very counter-intuitive but it makes sense when you consider what an aberrational and unusual cycle this has been. Despite zero rates for a decade plus inflation was quite benign. it was only the combination of the global pandemic and lockdown, a massive fiscal stimulus, and a surge in demand for goods that have driven the 2020 to 2022 inflation.

Economy 347
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Slowing Rent Growth Hits Apartments, But Investors Have Not Lost Interest

Wealth Management

After hitting double-digits in the first part of 2022, the pace of annual rent growth slowed to 6 percent in December.

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Are Robots Replacing You? Keeping Humans in the Loop in Automated Environments

Speaker: Erroll Amacker

As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

Happy New Year everyone! Great to be back in the saddle this week, working with our new president as we prepare for 2023 and beyond. We’ve got lots of projects and initiatives underway at Ritholtz Wealth, some of which you’ll be hearing about from me very soon. This week we went back to our regularly scheduled programming, with fresh episodes of all your favorite shows – What Are Your Thoughts, Animal Sp.

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Housing January 9th Weekly Update: Inventory Decreased 4% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk

Altos reports inventory is down 4.0% week-over-week. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research. As of January 6th, inventory was at 471 thousand (7-day average), compared to 491 thousand the prior week. Inventory has declined sharply seasonally in the winter. The second graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

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The Building Blocks of a Durable Family Office

Wealth Management

Laying the foundation for an organization that will support the family and its legacy requires commitment to a process and regularly revisiting fundamental decisions.

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We Just Might Pull This Off

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Callie Cox, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss discuss the latest CPI data, why Michael’s feeling a little bullish, calling the Fed’s bluff, chances of a soft landing, retail investor sentiment, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

Retail 262
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Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe in December

Calculated Risk

With the pandemic, there was a surge in 2nd home buying. I'm looking at data for some second home markets - and I'm tracking those markets to see if there is an impact from lending changes, rising mortgage rates or the easing of the pandemic. This graph is for South Lake Tahoe since 2004 through December 2022, and shows inventory (blue), and the year-over-year (YoY) change in the median price (12-month average).

Marketing 341
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Inflation Comes Down Despite the Fed

The Big Picture

CPI for December 2021 came in as expected , showing a decrease in core inflation is driven primarily by falling gasoline prices. Most in the media have credited the aggressive action by the Federal Reserve in helping to lower rates of inflation, but I have a decidedly different view: Inflation has come down not because of but despite the rate-increasing regime of the Federal Reserve.

Economy 299
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Book of Secrets on the Month-End Close

Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.

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What Investors in Office Real Estate Expect for 2023

Wealth Management

Exclusive WMRE research details how sentiment on office real estate has shifted as a result of uncertainty on the long-term outlooks for the sector.

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Clips From Today’s Closing Bell

The Reformed Broker

After December’s trash fire, markets are optimistic, says Ritholtz’s Josh Brown from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Closing Bell appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

Marketing 246
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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 205,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending January 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 205,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 2,000 from 204,000 to 206,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,500, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My Friday the 13th, end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • F@*$#*! 2022 was a record year for earnings call swearing : The “polycrisis” of runaway inflation, pandemics, interest rate increases, supply chain snafus and wars helped lift swearing on earnings calls and investor days to a new record high in 2022. Good job everyone. ( Financial Times Alphaville ). • Elon Musk Might Never Be the World’s Richest Person Again : It’s not just that he became the first person in history to have $200 billion

Media 276
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Stop Falling Short When It Matters Most—The Elite Advisor’s Playbook to Success

Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?

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IRS Audits of Millionaires Remain Low

Wealth Management

Low-income taxpayers are far more likely to be targeted.

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Personal finance links: finding a new plan

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talk with Mark Miller, author of "Retirement Reboot: Commonsense Financial Strategies for Getting Back on Track." (the-long-view.simplecast.com) A discussion about when it is time to adjust your retirement plans. (mullooly.net) Banking High yield bank savings accounts are now actually high yield. (awealthofcommonsense.com) The BNPL bubble is set to burst.

Planning 245
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BLS: CPI decreased 0.1% in December; Core CPI increased 0.3%

Calculated Risk

From the BLS : The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for gasoline was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in shelter indexes.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Tolima Los Brasiles Peaberry coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • How Not to Play the Game : Magic beans, Bahamian penthouses, old-fashioned fraud and other important SBF-inspired insights. A postscript to Bloomberg Businessweek’s The Crypto Story. ( Businessweek ). • 99 Good News Stories You Probably Didn’t Hear About in 2022 : The world didn’t fall apart this year.

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The Future Of Finance: How To Manage Spend The Right Way

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

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CRE Conduit Lending Sector Braces for Challenges in 2023

Wealth Management

Industry experts expect a difficult economic environment to keep CMBS issuance volume down while existing loans may see higher delinquency rates.

Economics 295
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Wednesday links: a trading vehicle

Abnormal Returns

Markets How does the 60/40 portfolio perform after big down years? (awealthofcommonsense.com) GMO loves deep value stocks. (ft.com) FTX Bankruptcy courts were not built to unwind crypto messes like FTX. (economist.com) Alameda Research made a big investment in miner Genesis Digital Assets soon before the FTX unwind. (wsj.com) BITO Bitcoin tanked in 2022 but Bitcoin futures ETPs held in there.

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Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in December

Calculated Risk

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.96 million in December , down 3.2% from November’s preliminary pace and down 35.0%% from last December’s seasonally adjusted pace.

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10 Wednesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My mid-week morning train WFH reads: • The Fed May Finally Be Winning the War on Inflation. But at What Cost? There’s a good chance that the Fed could push the economy into recession. The pain will not be shared equally. ( New York Times ). • Something big is happening in the U.S. housing market—here’s where 27 leading research firms think it’ll take home prices in 2023.

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Next-Level Fraud Prevention: Strategies for Today’s Threat Landscape

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

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Unlicensed Advisor Sentenced to 6 Years in Prison for $4M Ponzi Scheme

Wealth Management

Charles Richard Burgess will go to prison for more than six years for fleecing investors of more than $4 million, while pretending to be a registered investment advisor.

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Kitces & Carl Ep 103: Balancing Client Responsiveness With The Proactive Sledgehammer Of Value

Nerd's Eye View

As comprehensive financial planning has become more widely adopted, many financial advisors have felt pressure to find new ways to differentiate themselves by demonstrating their unique value to clients. And while providing fee-only advice or highlighting service as a fiduciary may have once been a fair differentiator, these services are now often considered table stakes, necessitating financial advisors to find more creative solutions that show current and prospective clients that they provide

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Question #4 for 2023: What will the participation rate be in December 2023?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 4) Participation Rate: In December 2022, the overall participation rate was at 62.3%, up year-over-year from 62.0% in December 20

Economics 289
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Monday links: the case for a soft landing

Abnormal Returns

Markets There's no sign that options trading is slowing down. (wsj.com) The 10-year Treasury rates peaked back in the Fall. (axios.com) Finance Private equity managers are abusing their discretion when it comes to valuations. (institutionalinvestor.com) Goldman Sachs ($GS) is laying off thousands of workers this week. (thinkadvisor.com) Black founders in the U.S. raised about 1% of 2022 venture capital funding.

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Demo SkyStem’s Award Winning Month-End Close Solution & Earn $100

Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.

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How to Manage Your Firm’s Data Instead of Drowning In It

Wealth Management

Focus on monitoring the most important metrics, including these 4 KPIs.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Jan 14-15)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the Federal Trade Commission has proposed a nationwide ban on noncompete clauses in employee contracts, aiming to give employees more freedom to change jobs within the same industry. In the advisor world, where noncompete agreements are fairly common, a ban on the practice could incentivize firms to reassess their employee value proposition and to conside

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Question #1 for 2023: How much will the economy grow in 2023? Will there be a recession in 2023?

Calculated Risk

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2023. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I’ll post thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog). I'm adding some thoughts, and maybe some predictions for each question. 1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 1% in 2022 as the economy slowed following the economic rebound in 2021

Economy 278
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Tuesday links: the AI genie

Abnormal Returns

Markets What role do interest rates have in stock prices? (ofdollarsanddata.com) Why the golden age of biotech stocks may be over. (statnews.com) Crypto Coinbase ($COIN) is laying off 20% of its workforce. (cnbc.com) Why so many are focused on the big discount on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC). (blockworks.co) Could another firm actually take over management of GBTC?

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.