Sat.Feb 11, 2023 - Fri.Feb 17, 2023

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Fighting the Last Bull & Bear Market

A Wealth of Common Sense

Here is a headline about what happens after a bull market: And here is a headline about what happens after a bear market: Both of these pieces were written by the Wall Street Journal’s Jason Zweig. The bull market piece about ARK came out a little more than a year ago not long after the fund had seen spectacular returns. The bear market piece about covered calls came out this past week after that strategy outperfo.

Marketing 142
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U.S. Stock Market Returns Over Rolling 1/5/10/20 Year Periods

The Big Picture

Source: The Measure of a Plan The post U.S. Stock Market Returns Over Rolling 1/5/10/20 Year Periods appeared first on The Big Picture.

Marketing 312
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The HSA ‘Deathbed Drawdown’: Making Tax-Efficient Distributions Of Large Balances (When There Isn’t Much Time)

Nerd's Eye View

Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) feature useful tax advantages that make them a popular savings vehicle. In addition to allowing for tax-deductible contributions, tax-free growth, and tax-free withdrawals for qualified medical expenses (the so-called ‘triple tax benefit’), HSA funds can be invested and allowed to grow for the long term – which has led many people to treat their HSA as a de facto retirement account by saving and investing the funds to be used for healthcare costs

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Tuesday links: investing humility

Abnormal Returns

Crypto The SEC continues to push back against crypto companies. (bloomberg.com) Susquehanna Advisors Group and Citadel Securities have reported stakes in crypto-friendly bank Silvergate Capital ($SI). (theblock.co) Everyone is lining up to try to close the NAV discount for the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ($GBTC). (wired.com) Spotify Spotify ($SPOT) invested big in podcasting and is struggling to make it all work.

Investing 246
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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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This Week on TRB

The Reformed Broker

It was a wild and wonderful week in stock-land and we covered pretty much everything that happened across all the firm’s blogs and shows. We know you can get your news and insights about the market from anywhere, so we appreciate that so many of you turn to us for all the breakdowns and write-ups. If you haven’t been reading Nick, Ben and the rest of the gang lately, you’re missing some amazing stuff.

Marketing 246

More Trending

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (Feb 18-19)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that the SEC is proposing to expand the adviser custody rule beyond securities and funds to cover all assets in a client’s portfolio, including private securities, real estate, derivatives, and cryptoassets.

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Friday links: an abysmal investing strategy

Abnormal Returns

Markets European natural gas prices are back down to Q4 2021 levels. (ft.com) Zero day options are growing in popularity. (marketwatch.com) Strategy Copycat investing is blind alley. (rationalwalk.com) Share buybacks aren't good or bad, they just are. (wsj.com) Fund management With other mutual funds companies adopt Vanguard's approach to ETFs? (morningstar.com) Index funds now own more Tesla ($TSLA) shares than Elon Musk.

Investing 245
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Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 70% YoY; New Listings Down 13% YoY

Calculated Risk

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Feb 11, 2023 • Active inventory growth continued to climb with for-sale homes up 70% above one year ago. Inventories of for-sale homes rose again, on par with the yearly gains we saw last week.

Sales 145
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Alien Invasion!!!

The Big Picture

Over the weekend, a NATO general was asked by a bright-eyed reporter whether or not the various flying objects that were being shot down might be aliens visiting from elsewhere in the galaxy. His throwaway response of “ We don’t rule anything out ” was sufficiently ambiguous to set the conspiracy theorists atwitter. “Of course, they dropped this during the Superbowl, when no one’s paying attention,” was the LOL tweet.

Investing 299
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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Creating Client Service Calendars That Demonstrate Ongoing Advisor Value

Nerd's Eye View

While it can be easy for financial advisors to recognize the wide range of ways they add value for clients throughout the year, clients themselves might not be aware of what their advisors do for them behind the scenes outside of their annual meetings (e.g., rebalancing their investment accounts or reviewing their insurance policies). Without knowledge of this ‘shadow work’, clients might not recognize the full breadth of responsibilities their advisor (and the firm’s back-offi

Clients 246
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Adviser links: client confidence

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Daniel Crosby talks with Tom Howard about behavioral finance vs. behavioral investing. (standarddeviationspod.com) Peter Lazaroff talks with Dasarte Yarnway about the importance of diversity in financial services and how to increase it. (peterlazaroff.com) Michael Kitces and Carl Richards on why you need to be clear, upfront about your minimums.

Clients 245
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Buy & Hold is Dead, Long Live Buy & Hold

A Wealth of Common Sense

As a staunch proponent of thinking and acting for the long-term as an investor, the following chart from Ben Laidler at eToro cuts deep: The average holding period for an individual stock in the U.S. is now just 10 months, down from 5 years back in the 1970s. The average mutual fund holding period is longer at two-and-a-half years but that still feels way too low for my taste.

Marketing 145
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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads: • It’s a Richcession, Not a Recession. Most economic downturns hit lower-income Americans hardest, but this time is different. The stock market’s winners and losers will be different too. Here’s your investing playbook. ( Wall Street Journal ) • From Math Camp to Handcuffs: FTX’s Downfall Was an Arc of Brotherhood and Betrayal : Gary Wang and Sam Bankman-Fried are offering dueling accounts of the FTX fiasco and of who’s ultimately to blame. ( Bloomberg ) s

Math 290
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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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The Investor’s Podcast: ESG Investing, The Death of 60/40 and More

Pragmatic Capitalism

I joined The Investor’s Podcast again this week to discuss a wide range of topics.

Investing 145
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Personal finance links: money as a tool

Abnormal Returns

Work Jack Raines, "Money can buy you freedom, but the never-ending pursuit of money is a prison of its own." (youngmoney.co) Is $200,000 a good annual income. It depends. (ofdollarsanddata.com) How to prepare for a layoff before it actually happens. (nytimes.com) Family Mixing love and money is always challenging. (joylere.substack.com) How 'micro-conversations' can help a couple manage their money relationship.

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Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 8.7% Compared to Same Week in 2019

Calculated Risk

From CoStar: STR: US Hotel Rates Maintain Strength in First Full Week of February U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week, according to STR‘s latest data through Feb. 11. Feb. 5-11, 2023 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*): • Occupancy: 57.8% (-8.7%) • Average daily rate (ADR): $150.97 (+13.4%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $87.21 (+3.6%) *Due to the pandemic impact, STR is measuring recovery against comparable time periods from 2019.

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10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of coffee, grab a seat by the window, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • How HBO’s creatives survived corporate chaos Authors Felix Gillette and John Koblin explain how your favorite shows kept HBO afloat. ( The Verge ) • What is ChatGPT and why does it matter? Here’s everything you need to know : This AI chatbot’s advanced conversational capabilities have created quite the buzz.

Investing 283
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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10 Years of A Wealth of Common Sense

A Wealth of Common Sense

I started A Wealth of Common Sense 10 years ago. Before ever hitting the publish button on my first piece, I created a list of topics and blog posts to write about. Based on that list I thought this blog might last 6 months max. I certainly didn’t think I would still be writing on a regular basis a decade later. And never in my wildest dreams did I think starting a blog would completely change my career trajectory a.

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Thursday links: the cause of bubbles

Abnormal Returns

Markets The FTSE 100 Index has risen above 8,000 points for the first time ever. (bloomberg.com) Bitcoin is at its highest level since June 2022. (theblock.co) Companies Cory Doctorow, "In its nearly 25-year history, Google has made one and a half successful products: a once-great search engine and a pretty good Hotmail clone. Everything else it built in-house has crashed and burned.

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Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 194,000

Calculated Risk

The DOL reported : In the week ending February 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 194,000 , a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 196,000 to 195,000. The 4-week moving average was 189,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week's revised average.

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10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • How State Street Has Used AI to Find ‘Hidden Gems’ Since 2018 : Natural-language processing used in stock picking: Bartolini Wanted something forward-looking, dynamic, he says of the ETF. ( Bloomberg ) • What Recession? Some Economists See Chances of a Growth Rebound. The Federal Reserve has raised rates rapidly.

Economy 283
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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Can We Get a Bubble with Higher Interest Rates?

A Wealth of Common Sense

A reader asks: So I work in Tech at a company whose name ends in dot ai and there is all this talk of the AI bubble and how VCs have quickly moved from Crypto to AI, not to mention all the buzz around ChatGPT. Question is – can you have a bubble in a high rate / rising rate interest environment or do we need low rates / easing Fed as a precursor to any bubble?

Marketing 130
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High Conviction

The Reformed Broker

Welcome to the latest episode of The Compound & Friends. This week, Michael Batnick, Jay Woods, Dan Russo, and Downtown Josh Brown discuss the New York Stock Exchange, technical analysis, the Dow Jones Transportation Average, Bitcoin, recession calls, stock/bond correlation, what drives Elon Musk, and much more! You can listen to the whole thing below, or find it wherever you like to listen to your favorite pods!

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NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased in February

Calculated Risk

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 42, up from 35 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Cautious Optimism for Builders in February Two consecutive solid monthly gains for builder confidence, spurred in part by easing mortgage rates, signal that the housing market may be turning a corner even as builders continue to contend with high construction costs and bu

Sales 136
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10 Wednesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My mid-week morning train WFH reads: • All Markets Are Uncertain : The Forecasters’ Hall of Fame Has Zero Members: In any given year, someone, simply due volume of forecasts, is “right”. I have yet to see anyone who can repeatedly, accurately forecast market outcomes. What we can say, with all certainty, looking backward, is that the S and P (and virtually every other market) has inexorably risen.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Wednesday links: genuine insights

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Just ignore all those forecasts out there. (marknewfield.substack.com) Life lessons from Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A). (neckar.substack.com) How to measure market sentiment. (blog.validea.com) Venture capital The VC market is undergoing a regular part of the cycle. (tomtunguz.com) How much of the tech boom was driven by ZIRP?

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The “No Landing” Scenario

The Reformed Broker

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ►A Strengthening consumer – “January expected household income drop was greatest in survey history” ►The “No Landing” Scenario – “The remarkable momentum in consumer spending an.

Investing 130
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Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.7% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.6% in January

Calculated Risk

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI: According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.7% in January. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% in January. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Food 130