Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 21, 2022

Monte Carlo simulations have become the dominant method for conducting financial planning analyses for clients and are a feature of most comprehensive financial planning software programs. By distilling hundreds of pieces of information into a single number that purports to show the percentage chance that a portfolio will not be depleted over the course of a client’s life, advisors often use this data point as the centerpiece when they present a financial plan.

Financial Planning 246

Financial Planning Planning Retirement Portfolio 246

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 17, 2022

This week, we speak with Robert Koenigsberger , the managing partner and chief investment officer of Gramercy Funds Management. A dedicated emerging markets investment manager, Gramercy Funds Management — which Koenigsberger founded in 1998 — now has more than $5 billion dollars in assets under management. We discuss how he first found his way into Emerging Markets Debt back in the 1980s, working in a small EM boutique.

Management 275

Management Valuation Consulting Investing 275

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 22, 2022

Books An excerpt from "Wealth, Cost and Price in American Higher Education: A Brief History" by Bruce A. Kimball and Sarah M. Iler. (insidehighered.com) A Q&A with Jess Grose author of "Screaming on the Inside: The Unsustainability of American Motherhood." (annehelen.substack.com) Russia How Putin misjudged the war in Ukraine. (nytimes.com) Russia's mobilization was characterized by poor training an inadequate gear.

Education 246

Education Media Government 246

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 20, 2022

Housing starts, permits, completions data from Census Department, chart by Mish. The Commerce Department's New Residential Construction Report shows housing starts were flat but single-family starts and permits were down hard in November. Building Permits Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,342,000.

Taxes 227

Taxes Numbers Economics 227

Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

Accounting

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 20, 2022

Welcome back to the 312th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Emily Rassam. Emily is the Senior Financial Planner for Archer Investment Management, a virtual Independent RIA based in Austin, Texas, that oversees $170 million of assets under management for nearly 170 families. What's unique about Emily, though, is how after struggling for years at a position where responsibilities and pressure kept building (and kept deterring her from being present i

Financial Advisor 245

Financial Advisor Financial Planning Planning Financial Planner 245

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 20, 2022

Managed futures Why trend following works during changing macroeconomic environments. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Managed futures work best during periods of market transition. (blogs.cfainstitute.org) Research What accounts for big stock price jumps? (papers.ssrn.com) Why 1/N diversification is hard to beat. (papers.ssrn.com) Diseconomies of scale in asset management are real.

Accounting 246

Accounting Management Assets Marketing 246

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

National Association of Homebuilders data, chart by Mish. Please consider the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for December 2022. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.

Sales 226

Sales Economics Marketing Marketing 226

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 23, 2022

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that Congress appears poised to pass “SECURE Act 2.0”, a series of measures that will have significant impacts on the world of retirement planning. From gradually raising the RMD age to 75 to expanding opportunities to make Roth-style contributions, to increasing the annual limit for Qualified Charitable Distributions, this legislation will likely

Financial Planner 233

Financial Planner Retirement Planning Financial Planning Budgeting 233

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 21, 2022

Ritholtz Wealth Management Chairman & CIO and “Masters in Business” Bloomberg Radio & Podcast Host, discusses the Fed’s rate hikes and market reaction. Powell Should Declare Victory: Ritholtz. Source: Bloomberg , December 20th, 2022. The post Powell Should Declare Victory & Go Home appeared first on The Big Picture.

Wealth Management 167

Wealth Management Management Marketing Marketing 167

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

Accounting

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 23, 2022

Best of lists The best finance podcasts of 2022 including 'Masters in Business.' (realreturns.blog) Why 'The Compound & Friends' was the best podcast of the year. (bigtechnology.com) The best podcasts of 2022 including 'Stolen: Surviving St. Michael’s. (newyorker.com) Ten of the best podcasts of 2022 including 'Things Fell Apart' by John Ronson.

Media 243

Media Healthcare Economics Management 243

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 22, 2022

Amazon AMZN Market Cap. Amazon is down from a peak of $1.88 trillion to $854.8 billion making it the first company to lose over $1 trillion in market cap. Who's next? Tesla TSLA Market Cap. Tesla has lost about $727 billion in market cap but it likely will not be next. Facebook META Market Cap. This is an impressive effort by Meta, down $759 billion in market cap from its peak.

Marketing 210

Marketing Marketing Valuation Economics 210

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 19, 2022

This summer, the Financial Planning Association (FPA) announced a new multi-year advocacy goal to pursue legal recognition for the title of "Financial Planner", as a means for bona fide financial planners to distinguish themselves and their services from others (who may use the title but don't actually do financial planning), to help consumers understand who is qualified to provide financial planning advice, and to raise standards for the financial planning profession by tying competency and eth

Financial Planner 201

Financial Planner CFP Certified Financial Planner Financial Planning 201

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 19, 2022

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Why Hot Wheels are one of the most inflation-proof toys in American history : Hot Wheels are a retail oddity. They remain one of the most affordable toys in the country at a time when inflation is chipping away at savings accounts and compounding credit card debt for many Americans. ( NPR ). • The Fed Is Making a Mistake—and the Stock Market Will Pay the Price : The central bank raised interest rates by half a point and promised to hold rates higher for

Retail 144

Retail Management Economy Banking 144

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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

Accounting

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 23, 2022

Content Some Substack newsletters that some prominent writers recommend including 'Doomberg.' (petition.substack.com) Blair duQuesnay's favorite female-created financial content from 2022. (blairbellecurve.com) What some Morningstar ($MORN) analysts recommend from 2022 including “The Bond King: How One Man Made a Market, Built an Empire, and Lost It All” by Mary Childs.

Financial Advising 243

Financial Advising Media Economy Retail 243

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 22, 2022

Noose Tightens Around Sam Bankman-Fried The Rats Rat on SBF The Wall Street Journal reports Caroline Ellison, Associate of FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried, Pleads Guilty to Criminal Charges Caroline Ellison, the former chief executive of Alameda Research, a trading firm tied to FTX, and Gary Wang, FTX’s former chief technology officer, both pleaded guilty to criminal offenses similar to those Mr.

Commission 203

Commission Assets Economics 203

Pragmatic Capitalism

DECEMBER 20, 2022

Here’s a new edition of 3 Minute Macro on the topic of Eurodollars.

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Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 23, 2022

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $80.1 billion (0.4 percent) in November , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $68.6 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $19.8 billion (0.1 percent).

Food 145

Food Economics 145

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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

Banking

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 21, 2022

Podcasts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak discuss the recent "The State of Retirement Income" report. (morningstar.com) Peter Lazaroff on what to do with unneeded RMDs. (peterlazaroff.com) Risk tolerance Five behavioral tricks for long-term investors including 'Have a small side account.' (blog.validea.com) We've all got out own pain threshold. (bestinterest.blog) On the difference between risk tolerance and risk perception.

Risk Tolerance 238

Risk Tolerance Retirement Retirement Planning Planning 238

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 20, 2022

US dollar index monthly chart courtesy of StockCharts.com annotations by Mish. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly lifted its ceiling on 10-year government bonds from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent. Japan 10-year bond yield courtesy of Trading Economics. The BOJ lifted the ceiling to stop an unwelcome slide in the yen. In response, bond yields also jumped in the US.

Banking 191

Banking Economics Government Taxes 191

A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 22, 2022

A reader asks: I know no one can predict the future…yada, yada, yada, but just between us – what’s going to happen with the stock market next year? I’m not sure I can handle another year like 2022. Life would be a lot easier if I knew the answer to this question. I guess the good news is there really isn’t much connective tissue from one year to the next in terms of one year’s price action impacting the next y.

Marketing 143

Marketing Marketing 143

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 21, 2022

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Dipped 7.7% in November Existing-home sales declined for the tenth month in a row in November, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions recorded month-over-month and year-over-year declines. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – waned 7.7% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November.

Sales 144

Sales 144

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

Numbers

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 21, 2022

Markets Four things that mattered for portfolios in 2022. (morningstar.com) Gasoline prices are ending 2022 below where they were a year ago. (compoundadvisors.com) Media stocks have had a miserable year. (on.ft.com) Companies Whatever the explanation, Tesla ($TSLA) shorts have cashed in this year. (wsj.com) Amazon's ($AMZN) Fresh store push has stalled out.

Financial Advising 225

Financial Advising Media Economy Portfolio 225

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 19, 2022

8Chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com, annotations by Mish. A long-term chart suggests the real driver for gold is not inflation, not the dollar, not conspiracies, not China, and not oil, but rather faith in central banks. Timeline Synopsis Nixon closed the gold redemption window on August 15, 1971. The price of gold was $35 an ounce. Faith in the dollar and central banks collapsed.

Banking 187

Banking Accounting Marketing Marketing 187

A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 20, 2022

Think back to 2010. After you got done signing up for some new app called Instagram and finished 17 shows and movies about vampires, maybe you finished reading The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo trilogy. Once all that pop culture consumption was done, you would have needed some non-fiction to keep up with the intellectual crowd so you moved on to The Big Short by Michael Lewis.

Marketing 141

Marketing Marketing 141

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 20, 2022

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,427,000. This is 0.5 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,434,000 and is 16.4 percent below the November 2021 rate of 1,706,000. Single‐family housing starts in November were at a rate of 828,000; this is 4.1 percent below the revised October figure of 863,000.

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Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

Financial Advice

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 18, 2022

Markets You can safely ignore all the year-end stock market forecasts. (nytimes.com) It's way too easy to kid yourself you saw what was coming down the pike. (wsj.com) Sam Ro, "The thing about certain risks is that the become less of a problem for markets the more market participants talk about them." (tker.co) Finance Cryptocurrency is the Segway of finance, heavily hyped and niche-only.

Financial Advising 219

Financial Advising Economics Media Economy 219

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 18, 2022

Tesla TSLA weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com. Tesla bounced off weekly support at the 220 level then quickly crashed strong support at the 180 level with nary a bounce. Next support is the 140 level, then 100, then 60, then 23. Tesla Monthly Support Levels. Tesla TSLA monthly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com. At the monthly level, things look grim.

Sales 176

Sales Assets Marketing Marketing 176

Alpha Architect

DECEMBER 23, 2022

To determine if a multi-factor approach has provided diversification benefits in terms of exposure to economic cycle risks, the research team at Counterpoint evaluated returns to multifactor long-short strategies, stocks, and 1-month T-bills in a variety of economic conditions (recession or no recession, high or no high inflation, and stagflation) over the period July 1963-August 2022.

Economics 120

Economics Portfolio Investing Investments 120