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Monte Carlo simulations have become the dominant method for conducting financial planning analyses for clients and are a feature of most comprehensive financial planning software programs. By distilling hundreds of pieces of information into a single number that purports to show the percentage chance that a portfolio will not be depleted over the course of a client’s life, advisors often use this data point as the centerpiece when they present a financial plan.
The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for November: Personal income increased $80.1 billion (0.4 percent) in November , according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $68.6 billion (0.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $19.8 billion (0.1 percent).
Collapse In Prices Can You Take Advantage? Why Not Lower Retail Prices? Deflation is a B h Clever Lease Extension There you go. Some excellent comments from @guydealership and others. The lead chart suggests Carvana is headed for bankruptcy. Not to worry, I am sure the owners got out at the top with stock options and sales. This post originated at MishTalk.Com.
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
This week, we speak with Robert Koenigsberger , the managing partner and chief investment officer of Gramercy Funds Management. A dedicated emerging markets investment manager, Gramercy Funds Management — which Koenigsberger founded in 1998 — now has more than $5 billion dollars in assets under management. We discuss how he first found his way into Emerging Markets Debt back in the 1980s, working in a small EM boutique.
From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Dipped 7.7% in November Existing-home sales declined for the tenth month in a row in November, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. All four major U.S. regions recorded month-over-month and year-over-year declines. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – waned 7.7% from October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in November.
Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that Congress appears poised to pass “SECURE Act 2.0”, a series of measures that will have significant impacts on the world of retirement planning. From gradually raising the RMD age to 75 to expanding opportunities to make Roth-style contributions, to increasing the annual limit for Qualified Charitable Distributions, this legislation will likely
Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that Congress appears poised to pass “SECURE Act 2.0”, a series of measures that will have significant impacts on the world of retirement planning. From gradually raising the RMD age to 75 to expanding opportunities to make Roth-style contributions, to increasing the annual limit for Qualified Charitable Distributions, this legislation will likely
With property fundamentals in their best shape in quite some time and attractive cap rates, some investors are looking to put their money into shopping and power centers.
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Volcanica coffee, grab a seat by the fire, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • Why the Age of American Progress Ended : Invention alone can’t change the world; what matters is what happens next. ( The Atlantic ). • Bored Ape Yacht Club Conquered NFTs. Can It Master the Metaverse Next? Two founders of the Bored Ape Yacht Club talk to CNET about how BAYC became the poster child for NFTs — and what comes next. ( CNET ). • History is i
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately‐owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,427,000. This is 0.5 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,434,000 and is 16.4 percent below the November 2021 rate of 1,706,000. Single‐family housing starts in November were at a rate of 828,000; this is 4.1 percent below the revised October figure of 863,000.
Welcome back to the 312th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Emily Rassam. Emily is the Senior Financial Planner for Archer Investment Management, a virtual Independent RIA based in Austin, Texas, that oversees $170 million of assets under management for nearly 170 families. What's unique about Emily, though, is how after struggling for years at a position where responsibilities and pressure kept building (and kept deterring her from being present i
Based off SkyStem's popular e-Book, the book of secrets to the month-end close will be revealed in this one-hour webinar. Learn leading practices when it comes to building a strong and sustainable month-end close that has room to grow and evolve. Learn about the power of precise estimates, why reconciliations are critical to closing the books, how and when to automate, and how the chart of accounts play into your close process.
Books An excerpt from "Wealth, Cost and Price in American Higher Education: A Brief History" by Bruce A. Kimball and Sarah M. Iler. (insidehighered.com) A Q&A with Jess Grose author of "Screaming on the Inside: The Unsustainability of American Motherhood." (annehelen.substack.com) Russia How Putin misjudged the war in Ukraine. (nytimes.com) Russia's mobilization was characterized by poor training an inadequate gear.
From WardsAuto: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Weaken Again in December; Inventory Set to Rise (pay content). Brief excerpt: If Winter Storm Elliott is as bad as predicted, it will create another headwind to December deliveries on top of inventory-related issues, fear of recession and rising prices and interest rates. Conversely, because the bad weather is hitting broad swaths of the U.S. at a time when most vehicle assembly plants will be closed anyway for the holiday season, production losses sho
This summer, the Financial Planning Association (FPA) announced a new multi-year advocacy goal to pursue legal recognition for the title of "Financial Planner", as a means for bona fide financial planners to distinguish themselves and their services from others (who may use the title but don't actually do financial planning), to help consumers understand who is qualified to provide financial planning advice, and to raise standards for the financial planning profession by tying competency and eth
Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Managed futures Why trend following works during changing macroeconomic environments. (mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Managed futures work best during periods of market transition. (blogs.cfainstitute.org) Research What accounts for big stock price jumps? (papers.ssrn.com) Why 1/N diversification is hard to beat. (papers.ssrn.com) Diseconomies of scale in asset management are real.
Active inventory decreased last week. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter ): 2022: -13.5K 2021: -13.1K 2020: -14.4K 2019: -18.1K Altos reports inventory is down 2.5% week-over-week and down 9.6% from the peak on October 28th. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
National Association of Homebuilders data, chart by Mish. Please consider the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) for December 2022. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of NAHB members designed to take the pulse of the single-family housing market. The survey asks respondents to rate market conditions for the sale of new homes at the present time and in the next six months as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Housing Works, a New York City-based nonprofit that runs a chain of thrift shops, will launch sales at a 4,400-square-foot Manhattan dispensary at 1 Astor Place, Governor Kathy Hochul said on Wednesday. All proceeds will be directed to the nonprofit.
Best of lists The best finance podcasts of 2022 including 'Masters in Business.' (realreturns.blog) Why 'The Compound & Friends' was the best podcast of the year. (bigtechnology.com) The best podcasts of 2022 including 'Stolen: Surviving St. Michael’s. (newyorker.com) Ten of the best podcasts of 2022 including 'Things Fell Apart' by John Ronson.
Note: This is as of November 30th. From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of November 30, 2022. According to MBA’s estimate, 350,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.
Amazon AMZN Market Cap. Amazon is down from a peak of $1.88 trillion to $854.8 billion making it the first company to lose over $1 trillion in market cap. Who's next? Tesla TSLA Market Cap. Tesla has lost about $727 billion in market cap but it likely will not be next. Facebook META Market Cap. This is an impressive effort by Meta, down $759 billion in market cap from its peak.
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Not every advisor sees a role for alternative investments like private placements or non-traded REITs. For those who do, making the allocations in reaction to declines in traditional portfolios is a mistake.
Content Some Substack newsletters that some prominent writers recommend including 'Doomberg.' (petition.substack.com) Blair duQuesnay's favorite female-created financial content from 2022. (blairbellecurve.com) What some Morningstar ($MORN) analysts recommend from 2022 including “The Bond King: How One Man Made a Market, Built an Empire, and Lost It All” by Mary Childs.
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 640 thousand. The previous three months were revised down sharply. Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 640,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
Noose Tightens Around Sam Bankman-Fried The Rats Rat on SBF The Wall Street Journal reports Caroline Ellison, Associate of FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried, Pleads Guilty to Criminal Charges Caroline Ellison, the former chief executive of Alameda Research, a trading firm tied to FTX, and Gary Wang, FTX’s former chief technology officer, both pleaded guilty to criminal offenses similar to those Mr.
Is your finance team bogged down by endless data requests and disorganized spreadsheets during the month-end close? It’s time to consider a better option – automate with ART! SkyStem’s solution works alongside your ERP to transform the close and account reconciliation process and speed up month-end work. Explore SkyStem’s ART - the award-winning account reconciliation automation platform - and receive a $100 Amazon gift card as a thank you for your time.
Podcasts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak discuss the recent "The State of Retirement Income" report. (morningstar.com) Peter Lazaroff on what to do with unneeded RMDs. (peterlazaroff.com) Risk tolerance Five behavioral tricks for long-term investors including 'Have a small side account.' (blog.validea.com) We've all got out own pain threshold. (bestinterest.blog) On the difference between risk tolerance and risk perception.
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Economist Jiayi Xu: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Dec 17, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory growth held steady with for-sale homes up 58% above one year ago.
US dollar index monthly chart courtesy of StockCharts.com annotations by Mish. Yesterday, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly lifted its ceiling on 10-year government bonds from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent. Japan 10-year bond yield courtesy of Trading Economics. The BOJ lifted the ceiling to stop an unwelcome slide in the yen. In response, bond yields also jumped in the US.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
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