Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 685 thousand. The previous three months were revised up, combined. Sales of new single?family houses in August 2022 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 685,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
Around the world, markets lost 5% or worse just last week. Year to date, the S&P 500 is down more than 23%; the Russell 2000 small caps are off more than 26%; Emerging markets are down almost 28%; and the Nasdaq Tech index is off more than 31%. All jokes aside , September has lived up to its reputation as a challenging month for equities. After the brutal sell-off, a relief rally was due, hence the green on your screen this morning.
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Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
A new Bank of America survey offers data on workplace benefits and their impact on employee satisfaction and retention.
The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 26, 2022
All of the value creation for investors comes from the actions they take in falling markets, not rising ones. If you’re not yet in retirement and not finished putting money into your retirement accounts, every 5% the market falls is an increased opportunity for you to buy things that will be worth much more in the future when you eventually sell them.
Speaker: David Worrell, CFO, Author & Speaker
Your financial statements hold powerful insights—but are you truly paying attention? Many finance professionals focus on the income statement while overlooking key signals hidden in the balance sheet and cash flow statement. Understanding these numbers can unlock smarter decision-making, uncover risks, and drive long-term success. Join David Worrell, accomplished CFO, finance expert, and author, for an engaging, nontraditional take on reading financial statements.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 26, 2022
Active inventory increased for the 2nd consecutive week, increasing 0.9% last week, and hitting a new peak for the year. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years: 2022: +4.9K 2021: -3.7K 2020: -5.2K 2019: -0.3K Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 131% since then. More than double! Altos reports inventory is up 28.7% year-over-year.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
This week, we speak with Steve Case , co-founder of America On-Line (AOL), founder of investment firm Revolution , Chair of the Smithsonian, and author of The Rise of the Rest: How Entrepreneurs in Surprising Places are Building the New American Dream. We discuss how he launched America Online in 1985 back when the internet was restricted to academia and the government.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
Okay don’t press the <Buy> because of this but maybe reconsider pressing the <Sell> button if you haven’t already… The AAII sentiment poll hit 60% Bears this week. History says the more pessimistic the investor class becomes, the better the prospective returns look six months out. The way I think about this is that the only thing that could make investors really bearish is a big sell-off in t.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
Note: The occupancy rate will increase next week due to Hurricane Ian. From CoStar: STR: US Weekly Hotel Occupancy Reaches 70% U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week and showed improved comparisons with 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through Sept. 24. Sept. 18-24, 2022 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*): • Occupancy: 70.0% (-1.5%) • Average daily rate (ADR): $157.99 (+15.7%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): $110.60 (+13.9%) *Due to the pandemic impact,
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 29, 2022
For years, we have heard that “there is no alternative” – TINA – to equities, and that thanks to the Fed, “Cash is trash.”. No longer. The Federal Reserve, in its belated attempt to fight inflation, has cranked up rates to the point where today, there is an alternative to stocks: Bonds. It’s been over two decades since the Fed first began panic cutting interest rates in response to such events as the 1998 Long Term Capital Management implosion, the 2000 dotcom crash (2001-03), the Septembe
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 26, 2022
Demand for net lease retail is softening, which is forcing a pricing reset—albeit more slowly than buyers would like.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
The Reformed Broker
SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 26, 2022
These indicators are mostly for travel and entertainment. It is interesting to watch these sectors recover as the pandemic subsides. Notes: I've added back gasoline supplied to see if there is an impact from higher gasoline prices. -- Airlines: Transportation Security Administration -- The TSA is providing daily travel numbers. This data is as of September 25th.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of BeanBox coffee, grab a seat int he den, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • LaGuardia Airport Is No Longer the Worst. This Team Fixed It : An elite squad was tasked with making sure the gleaming Terminal B was ready to open. There are lessons from LaGuardia for every business. ( Wall Street Journal ). • The robots are here.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 29, 2022
The scorching pace of rent growth will slow, but solid fundamentals mean the outlook for multifamily investment remains bullish even amid some concerns about availability of capital, according our latest exclusive WMRE Multifamily Research Report.
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Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 29, 2022
As an individual begins planning for retirement, one of the factors often considered is whether (and where) they might relocate to enjoy their retirement. When evaluating their potential options across the U.S., a state’s income tax rules can have a significant impact on where they might choose to live. The perception of a state as having high or low taxes could make it more or less attractive for someone choosing where to relocate, and those perceptions are often skewed by the state’
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
The DOL reported : In the week ending September 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 193,000 , a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 4,000 from 213,000 to 209,000. The 4-week moving average was 207,000, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week's revised average.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 26, 2022
My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • What is the Fed Doing? Don’t fight the Fed used to be a positive slogan. That’s not the case anymore. If anything, it feels like the Fed wants to fight us, all of us, including the stock market and the economy. The Fed is actively trying to crash the stock market, break the housing market and push the economy into a recession.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
Let’s take back the narrative by talking about the passionate people who help clients achieve their financial and life goals every day.
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Like being inches from the end zone, many advisors are frustratingly close to their next level of success. You work hard. You put in the hours. But if your closing rate is stuck or your pipeline feels like a revolving door… something has to change. Most advisors are just one small shift away from dramatically increasing their revenue. The difference?
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
Rates Yields on cash equivalents are rising rapidly. (wealthmanagement.com) Rapidly rising real interest rates provide competition for stocks. (capitalspectator.com) Expected returns on bonds are finally attractive. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Markets Lumber prices are back down to pre-pandemic levels. (wsj.com) Don't fight the last war: this isn't 2008.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 29, 2022
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Pace of Rent Increases Continues to Slow A brief excerpt: Here is a graph of the year-over-year (YoY) change for these measures since January 2015. All of these measures are through August 2022 (Apartment List through September 2022). Note that new lease measures (Zillow, Apartment List) dipped early in the pandemic, whereas the BLS measures were steady.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
At Future Proof , I spoke with hosts Jeffrey Sherman and Samuel Lau of Doubleline + The Sherman Show about investing, the future of financial conferences, and why not failing means you are not taking enough risk. It’s fun conversation, and Jeff & Sam are great hosts. TSS Episode 125: Barry Ritholtz on Financial Advisers, Clients, Market Outlooks and Building Portfolios.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 28, 2022
Our third quarter virtual forum examined trends in multifamily, grocery-anchored retail and BTRs amid broader discussions about how CRE is dealing with rising interest rates and persistent inflation.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 29, 2022
Podcasts Brett McKay talks with Nick Maggiulli about his book "Just Keep Buying: Proven Ways to Save Money and Build Your Wealth." (artofmanliness.com) Six questions you should ask your financial advisor, including 'If something happens to you, who will take over my account?' (peterlazaroff.com) Housing There is a lot about our financial lives we can't control, including home prices.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 27, 2022
Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in August was 0.70%, down from 0.73% July. Freddie's rate is down year-over-year from 1.62% in August 2021. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20% following the housing bubble and peaked at 3.17% in August 2020 during the pandemic. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 24, 2022
? ?. Visual Capitalist : “The sharp rise in interest rates has sent shockwaves through markets. The S&P 500 Index has steadily declined ~20% year-to-date, and the NASDAQ Composite Index has fallen ~30%. Bond markets are also showing signs of uncertainty, with the 10-year minus 2-year Treasury yield curve acting as a prime example. This yield curve subtracts the return on short-term government bonds from long-term government bonds.” The post Visualizing Interest Rates Since 2020 a
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 26, 2022
Retirement benefits are an increasingly critical weapon in the ongoing war for talent.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
Markets Quality stocks have not been a defense against a bear market. (wsj.com) TIPS yields are at their highest level in a decade. (marketwatch.com) How rogue waves help explain market disasters. (bestinterest.blog) Strategy The bear case is obvious. What's the bull case? (theirrelevantinvestor.com) Why you should be happier investing today than a year ago.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 25, 2022
On Friday, the average 30-year mortgage rate hit 6.7% for zero points and top tier scenarios. This was the highest rate in 14 years and is close to the highest rate in over 20 years (above 6.76% will be the highest since early 2002). Here is a graph showing the 30-year rate using Freddie Mac PMMS , and MND for last week. Click on graph for larger image.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
My morning train WFH reads: • The Forbes 400 2022: The Definitive Ranking of The Wealthiest Americans : In 2022 The wealthiest people in the U.S. are poorer than a year ago—and the cutoff to make the list fell for the first time since the Great Recession. ( Forbes ). • Sympathy for the Dimon : He’s dealing with an important shortage: Balance Sheet. ( Financial Times ) see also The Reinvention of Goldman Sachs : what has David Solomon achieved?
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 29, 2022
The move establishes EP Wealth's presence on the East Coast, and marks milestone in the firm's planned national expansion.
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