Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 20, 2022
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report released today from Chief Economist Danielle Hale: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Oct 15, 2022. Note: They have data on list prices, new listings and more, but this focus is on inventory. • Active inventory continued to grow, increasing 34% above one year ago.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 18, 2022
At the beginning of each quarter, I prepare a short but in-depth conference call for RWM clients. The team & I put together the most revealing and informative slides. In that half hour, I blow through ~40 slides that capture and explain what is going on. About a quarter of the October 2022 slides were focused on real estate. This is atypical. The reason we emphasized real estate this Q is that housing is very often where we see FOMC policy having its most immediate effect.
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Wealth Management
OCTOBER 17, 2022
Some sources of financing are drying up, but overall multifamily fundamentals are strong enough to keep funds flowing to borrowers.
The Reformed Broker
OCTOBER 15, 2022
Hey guys, didn’t get a chance to do any writing this week but we did two really good shows on the YouTube / podcast front I wanted to make sure you don’t miss… And if you haven’t subscribed yet, don’t wait. Check it out below or wherever fine podcasts are played. . The post This Week on TRB appeared first on The Reformed Broker.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 17, 2022
Active inventory increased again, hitting a new peak for the year. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory is declining at this time of year ): 2022: +5.0K 2021: -2.4K 2020: -0.9K 2019: -10.9K Inventory bottomed seasonally at the beginning of March 2022 and is now up 135% since then. Altos reports inventory is up 33.7% year-over-year.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 16, 2022
This is pretty mind-blowing: a podcast that is entirely generated by artificial intelligence where Joe Rogan interviews Steve Jobs. One of the most important women in Apple’s history never worked for Apple Margot Comstock took her winnings from a TV game show and bought a computer. It led to a magazine, which turned into a major hub for the nascent community of developers and fans of one of the most important computers in history.
Financial Advisor Source brings together the best content for financial advisor professionals from the widest variety of industry thought leaders.
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 21, 2022
Finance Per AngelList, the Q3 drop in venture activity was substantial. (angellist.com) Questions keep getting raised about TikTok's data practices. (forbes.com) Fidelity is not abandoning crypto. (bloomberg.com) InstaCart has paused its IPO. (axios.com) Global Why isn't Japan raising rates? (nytimes.com) The backlog of container ships off the coast of Southern California is effectively gone.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 18, 2022
From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production increased 0.4 percent in September and 2.9 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter. In September, manufacturing output rose 0.4 percent after advancing a similar amount in the previous month. The index for mining moved up 0.6 percent, and the index for utilities fell 0.3 percent.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 20, 2022
Which cities have the greatest housing bubble risk? That is the basis of this very interesting graphic from UBS. The full PDF is well worth your time to peruse through – you can find it here: UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index. Source : UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2022. The post Global Real Estate Bubble Index appeared first on The Big Picture.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 16, 2022
Which U.S. cities have ramped up their new apartment deliveries over the past few years?
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Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 18, 2022
Research Are index funds to blame for the lack of investment in oil and gas production? (ft.com) On the relationship between asset growth and lottery stock status. (alphaarchitect.com) The problem with growth: persistence is fleeting. (mailchi.mp) Why companies see a jump in their stock price when they hire a black CEO. (wapo.st) Is democracy good for the stock market?
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 19, 2022
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 4.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 14, 2022. The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 86 percent lower than the same week one year ago.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 17, 2022
US equity markets are off about 25% YTD; Tech-heavy Nasdaq is off 32%; But the poster child for the past few years has been Tesla (TSLA), which is down 38.5% YTD and is 46.9% off of its 2021 highs. From a fundamental perspective, Tesla is doing quite well: In the third quarter, Tesla sold a record 343,000 vehicles. They also have an advantage over traditional automakers: An ability to quickly reprogram the firmware of chips.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 19, 2022
The IRS say, "no.
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Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 20, 2022
In recent years, politically charged topics have become the forefront of news and media, and with the rise of access to digitally distributed media, it has become commonplace for clients to have concerns about the possible impact of political events on their portfolios. These concerns have compelled many clients to reach out to their advisors, urging them to make changes in response to the political environment.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 20, 2022
The DOL reported : In the week ending October 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 214,000 , a decrease of 12,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 2,000 from 228,000 to 226,000. The 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week's revised average.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 21, 2022
Why are markets rallying and/or falling every other day? They make gains only to give them back, or they sell off hard only to subsequently regain the losses. I suspect it is because the dispersion of likely future outcomes is so unusually wide. Meaning, what investors imagine as the most likely outcomes are all over the map. Perhaps a weather analogy may help explain : Since its October, let’s imagine a typical weather report: 80% chance of sunshine, with a slight chance of showers overni
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 18, 2022
The city of Chicago owns some 10,000 vacant lots, with a large concentration in economically-challenged neighborhoods that have experienced decades of underinvestment. Selling them could help reduce overall crime. It could also boost affordable housing development.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Nerd's Eye View
OCTOBER 17, 2022
After more than 2 years of ongoing disruptions, from the original COVID-19 outbreak, to wave after wave of variants as the pandemic rolled on, 2022 proved to be the year that advisor conferences were “back”, as events ceased canceling or rescheduling in response to new variants and powered forward… often with virtual options for those who still felt uncomfortable traveling, but with most events actually reaching or even exceeding their pre-pandemic highs as advisors showed that
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 18, 2022
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 38, down from 46 in September. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Down 10 Straight Months as Housing Market Continues to Weaken In a further signal that rising interest rates, building material bottlenecks and elevated home prices continue to weaken the housing market, builder sentiment fell for the 10th straight
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 15, 2022
This week, we speak with Thomas Rampulla, managing director of Vanguard’s Financial Advisor Services. The division provides investments, services, education and research to more than 1,000 financial advisory firms representing more than $3 trillion in assets. Rampulla has held a variety of management positions at Vanguard since he joined in 1988.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 21, 2022
The most promising growth opportunities are not outside the doors of an advisory firm, but inside, said industry executives, speaking at Riskalyze’s Fearless Investing Summit this week.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 20, 2022
Strategy Diversifiers don't always work. (rogersplanning.blogspot.com) Another example of why running money is difficult. (ft.com) Crypto The vast majority of El Salvador thinks its Bitcoin experiment was a mistake. (barrons.com) IPOs Aside from Airbnb ($ABNB), gig economy stocks have been a disaster. (oversharing.substack.com) Newly public real estate startups have been a disaster as well.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 19, 2022
From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately?owned housing starts in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,439,000. This is 8.1 percent below the revised August estimate of 1,566,000 and is 7.7 percent below the September 2021 rate of 1,559,000. Single?family housing starts in September were at a rate of 892,000; this is 4.7 percent below the revised August figure of 936,000.
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 15, 2022
The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Bean Box coffee, grab a seat by the lake, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads: • The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin Culture: Crypto’s first token created a culture and then a monster. ( CoinDesk ). • The computer errors from outer space : The Earth is subjected to a hail of subatomic particles from the Sun and beyond our solar system which could be the cause of glitches that afflict our phones and computers.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 21, 2022
The big players in RIA M&A may be putting on a good face. But debt-heavy acquirers are starting to feel the impacts of the market environment, and it isn’t pretty.
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Abnormal Returns
OCTOBER 20, 2022
Business Why Mark Cuban teamed up with Alex Oshmyansky to try to disrupt the pharmaceutical industry. (dmagazine.com) Apartment property management companies are increasingly using YieldStar software to set rents. (propublica.org) How TikTok came to rule the Internet. (wapo.st) How the TMZ model works. (trungphan.substack.com) Society Like it or not, West Virginia's future is in being able to move beyond coal.
Calculated Risk
OCTOBER 16, 2022
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Monthly Mortgage Payments Up Record Year-over-year Excerpt: The following graph shows the year-over-year change in principal & interest (P&I) assuming a fixed loan amount since 1977. Currently P&I is up about 59% year-over-year for a fixed amount (this doesn’t take into account the change in house prices).
The Big Picture
OCTOBER 21, 2022
Earlier this week I asked What’s Ailing Tesla’s Stock? The usual answers — Elon Musk’s distraction(s), and the company’s high valuation – are certainly fair reasons, but I suspect the biggest challenge is competition from legacy car makers. The latest comes from Mercedes-Benz: The EQE. Aimed squarely at Tesla’s best-selling Model Y, the EQE SUV boasts 367 miles of battery range and starts at ~$68,000.
Wealth Management
OCTOBER 19, 2022
The combined business will operate under The Standard brand, and include Securian's retirement solutions employees, management, client relationships and distribution networks.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
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