Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 14, 2022

Change is difficult, and when faced with the prospect of a change, many people opt to stick with the status quo. This is even true in the case of positive changes, such as a new job opportunity or relationship: Even though it might be very likely to make the person’s life better, it represents a departure from life as usual, and there is always the risk that the change won’t work out the way it was expected to.

Clients 225

Clients Numbers Planning Communication 225

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES).

Food 361

Food Sales Economics Retail 361

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 16, 2022

There seems to be a lot of confusion going on today with respect to inflation, interest rates, and ongoing Federal Reserve policy. A framework for exploring this has many parts: What the Fed (obviously) knows, how it express those views through police like FOMC rates, ZIRP, QE, QT, etc. There remains the question of what the Fed is actually wrong about. 1 .

Economics 307

Economics Banking Marketing Marketing 307

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 10, 2022

This past week we stayed at the Post Oak in Houston, one of the top ten hotels in America, supposedly 6 or 7 stars – and let me tell you, that place was opulent. More marble in one building than anywhere I’ve ever been, save for perhaps the Vatican. Billionaire hospitality guru Tilman Fertitta, the hotel’s owner, furnished this place as though he would actually live there – and he does.

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Speaker: Amanda Adams, Fractional CFO, CPA

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Amanda Adams, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

Accounting

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 13, 2022

Quant The CFA Institute has fallen down on the job of advancing industry knowledge. (linkedin.com) A round-up of recent research on valuation including 'Valuation When Disaster Risks Increase at an Increasing Rate.' (capitalspectator.com) Hedging strategies Hedging strategies come in two different flavors: fast and slow. (aqr.com) Can trend following move the needle on a portfolio?

Valuation 246

Valuation Portfolio Management 246

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 12, 2022

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • The sneaky economics of Ticketmaster : Ticketmaster’s maligned fees and customer service issues are again under the microscope. Will American music fans ever see anything better? ( The Hustle ). • What Is the Bond Market Saying About the Economy? The bond market is known for being much smarter than the stock market but we don’t have to go back very far to find a time when it was wrong.

Math 300

Math Economy Communication Economics 300

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 15, 2022

A few weeks back I sat down with Bank of America’s quantitative and equity strategist Savita Subramanian and fellow financial advisor Georgia Lee Hussey to talk about how investors can protect themselves and find opportunity in 2023. There’s definitely a cloud hanging over the year to come – we’ve never seen a steeper or faster rate hiking cycle in the last half century and a lot of trends that mad.

Financial Advisor 246

Financial Advisor Banking Marketing Marketing 246

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 10, 2022

Autos Auto insurance premiums are set to rise in 2023. (axios.com) DHL is buying 2,000 electric Ford E-Transits as delivery vans. (arstechnica.com) Fully electric semis face a lot of hurdles. (axios.com) Transport More transit systems are making bus rides free. (axios.com) Europe is set to allow phone calls on planes. (washingtonpost.com) eVTOLs are nearing wide-scale production.

Food 246

Food Financial Advising Media Transportation 246

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Enjoy the current installment of “Weekend Reading For Financial Planners” - this week’s edition kicks off with the news that CFP Board is forming a Competency Standards Commission in 2023 to review and evaluate its competency requirements for Education, Examination, Experience, and CE, which represents an opportunity for CFP Board to adjust its requirements, in alignment with the desires of the CFP community itself, to build confidence among the public that those with the CFP m

Financial Planner 245

Financial Planner CFP Financial Advisor Retirement Planning 245

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

Accounting

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 12, 2022

In this week’s podcast, I chatted with Kathleen McCarthy , Global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate. 1 We recorded this on November 30 th , before all the news broke on the BREIT liquidity gates. But I am very familiar with the product. RWM is a discretionary RIA, which primarily invests in stocks and bonds via ETFs, Mutual Funds, and Direct Indexing.

Accounting 293

Accounting Commission Investing Investments 293

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 14, 2022

Month-over-month CPI food prices from the BLS, chart by Mish. Month-Over-Month Details For November Meat, Fish, Poultry, Eggs: -0.2%, up 9 of 11 months in 2022 Cereals and Bakery:+1.1%, up 11 of 11 months in 2022 Dairy: +0.7 percent: up 11 of 11 months in 2022 Fruits and Vegetables: up 1.4%, up 9 of 11 months in 2022 Nonalcoholic Beverages: -0.3%, up 10 of 11 months in 2022 Other Food at Home: -0.1%, up 10 of 11 months in 2022 Three Major Food Categories.

Food 244

Food Economics 244

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 14, 2022

Podcasts Christine Benz and Jeff Ptak talks with Jamie Hopkins of Carson Wealth about some common retirement planning questions. (morningstar.com) Peter Lazaroff talks with Ben Carlson about questions that spreadsheets can't necessarily answer. (peterlazaroff.com) Dan Kemp and Ollie Smith talk with Joe Wiggins author of the new book "The Intelligent Fund Investor.

Investing 245

Investing Investments Retirement Planning Banking 245

Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 12, 2022

Financial advisors have had to navigate many challenges in 2022, from an inflationary environment, the likes of which we have not experienced in decades, to weak stock and bond market performance. Here at Kitces.com, we have sought to provide advisors with the insights and education they need to help their clients (and their firms) navigate these uncertain conditions, from blog posts and podcasts on these trending topics to the continued expansion of our Kitces Courses and our popular monthly Of

Education 235

Education CFP Certification License 235

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Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

Accounting

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 15, 2022

My morning train WFH reads: • Why You Should Enable Apple’s New Security Feature in iOS 16.2 Right Now : Apple just rolled out iOS 16.2, a software update that includes a key new feature called Advanced Data Protection for iCloud. That means you can finally enable end-to-end encryption for your iCloud backups so no one but you—not even Apple—can access your iCloud data. ( New York Times ). • The FUD Behind the Crypto Collapse : Sam Bankman-Fried and Binance’s Changpeng Zhao were ostensible partn

Management 270

Management Economics Marketing Marketing 270

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 10, 2022

Target 2 balances from the ECB, numbers and caption by Mish. TARGET2 is the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system owned and operated by the Eurosystem. The Target2 Lead Chart is courtesy of the ECB. It shows Target 2 creditor and debtor nations. Tatget2 is one of the fundamental flaws of the Eurozone. Primary Creditors and Debtors Target2 surpluses to the tune of €1.23 trillion continue to mount in Germany.

Economics 218

Economics Banking Government Numbers 218

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 15, 2022

Finance Why Robinhood ($HOOD) is offering IRA accounts to its customers. (riabiz.com) HSBC has announced it will stop financing new oil and gas fields. (bbc.com) Elon Elon Musk sold another big batch of Tesla ($TSLA) shares. (wsj.com) While SpaceX shares hold their value. (axios.com) Funds Blackrock's ($BLK) iShares is set to best Vanguard when it comes to 2022 fund flows.

Financial Advising 179

Financial Advising Media Retail Economy 179

A Wealth of Common Sense

DECEMBER 13, 2022

Unless we get a Christmas miracle, the U.S. stock market is going to finish the year with double-digit losses. If this downturn holds, it would be the 12th time in the past 95 years this has happened. So it’s relatively rare but not completely out of the range of possibilities. There’s nothing special about calendar year returns. It’s not like market cycles die on December 31st and are born again each ye.

Marketing 145

Marketing Marketing 145

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As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

Banking

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 13, 2022

My Two-for-Tuesday train reads: • The fall of FTX shocked everyone. Except this guy. The world of cryptocurrency is rich with eccentric characters and anonymous Twitter personalities. So perhaps it shouldn’t be a surprise that one of the early figures who called attention to the problems with Sam Bankman-Fried’s cryptocurrency exchange, FTX, is a 30-year-old Michigan psychiatrist who investigates financial crimes as a hobby. ( The Atlantic ). • You Bought a Hot Fund.

Recruitment 157

Recruitment Distribution Accounting Sales 157

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 14, 2022

Dot Plot Interest Rate projections from FOMC, highlights and annotations by Mish. Please consider the FOMC Press Release from December 14. Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures.

Food 205

Food Economics Accounting Planning 205

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 11, 2022

Top clicks this week Nick Maggiulli's favorite investment writing of 2022. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Things that never happened in markets before happen all the time. (awealthofcommonsense.com) The bonds vs. bond fund equation is more complicated than it looks. (morningstar.com) How much wealth does it take to crack the 0.1%? (ritholtz.com) Bond lingo, 101.

Risk Management 159

Risk Management Taxes Management Investing 159

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 14, 2022

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 3.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 9, 2022. The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 85 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

Financial Market 145

Financial Market Marketing Marketing 145

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

Numbers

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 14, 2022

My mid-week morning train reads: • What surprisingly low November inflation means for 2023 : There was barely any inflation in November, indicating that the economic environment might be more mild than previously thought, potentially giving the Federal Reserve the opportunity to ease up on interest rate hikes and perhaps even avoid a recession — if it wants to. ( Grid ). • The Fed is Dead : Its interest rate hikes are hurting consumers and workers while bypassing the main source of inflation ( R

Recruitment 144

Recruitment Economics Portfolio Investing 144

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Chart courtesy of CoinMarketCap, annotations by Mish. A wave of selling is hitting Binance right now in the wake of crypto concerns in the fallout of FTX. To see it, let's take a look at the past week. Binance BNB Last Seven Days. Binance Says Accounting Firm Mazars Pauses Work for Crypto Clients The Wall Street Journal reports Binance Says Accounting Firm Mazars Pauses Work for Crypto Clients Cryptocurrency-trading giant Binance said the accounting firm it used to verify its reserves has paused

Accounting 199

Accounting Clients Numbers Economics 199

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 16, 2022

The biz Spotify ($SPOT) is pulling back on live audio. (bloomberg.com) A hit podcast doesn't necessarily pay the bills. (wsj.com) Society Derek Thompson talks with economist Bryce Ward about the causes and consequences of the rise of alone time in America. (theringer.com) Bryan Caplan and Chris Arnade discuss poverty in America. (betonit.substack.com) Companies Matt Reustle talks with Drew Cohen talk about the unique business of Floor & Decor.

Investing 130

Investing Investments Marketing Marketing 130

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 12, 2022

Active inventory decreased last week. Here are the same week inventory changes for the last four years ( usually inventory declines seasonally through the Winter ): 2022: -13.9K 2021: -11.7K 2020: -12.4K 2019: -12.4K Altos reports inventory is down 2.6% week-over-week and down 7.2% from the peak on October 28th. Click on graph for larger image. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

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Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

Financial Advice

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 15, 2022

Last year, I interviewed Peter Lynch of Fidelity at the MIT Sloan Conference. I also met George Noble , who worked with Peter for many years. He runs a fun trading group on Twitter — and had me be guest on it this week. Strap yourself for in for a fun ride with a bunch of traders. NO BULL – Market Talk with George Noble. Please consider donating to World Central Kitchen : .

Marketing 130

Marketing Marketing Food Media 130

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 13, 2022

CPI data from the BLS, chart by Mish. The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis. Key Points The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Food 195

Food Medical Communication Education 195

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Markets International stocks might actually outperform the U.S. this year. (etf.com) The end of the retail trading boom hasn't killed options volume. (ft.com) Strategy Six investment lessons from the FTX scandal including 'Swim in regulated waters.' (savantwealth.com) Relax, there's always a new market theme hitting the headlines. (compoundadvisors.com) Companies Carvana ($CVNA) is the poster child for the ZIRP era.

Financial Advising 130

Financial Advising Retail Media Economy 130