David Nelson
AUGUST 31, 2023
By David Nelson, CFA Traveler’s usually follow in the footsteps of those who have successfully navigated the journey before them. Even Dorothy along with a few friends and her trusty dog Toto had the Yellow Brick Road. Investors are no different. We stick to the path as long as we can but have to be prepared to alter course when the weather turns.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 1, 2023
From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during July 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,972.6 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised June estimate of $1,958.9 billion. The July figure is 5.5 percent above the July 2022 estimate of $1,869.3 billion. emphasis added Private spending increased and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,548.9 billio
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Wealth Management
AUGUST 31, 2023
Transparency in financial reporting, favorable partnership structures are taking on more importance for family offices in a riskier investment climate.
The Big Picture
SEPTEMBER 1, 2023
The Fed is done. It’s unimaginable that they will do anything at the September FOMC meeting, and barring any radical change in the data, it’s unlikely they will be doing anything in November. I have been saying since June 2022 that inflation had peaked; the data has been leaning that way since May 2022. If you were watching the video instead of the still pic , it was apparent that the biggest risk to the economy then was less rising prices than a tardy FOMC over-tightening.
Speaker: Erroll Amacker
As businesses increasingly adopt automation, finance leaders must navigate the delicate balance between technology and human expertise. This webinar explores the critical role of human oversight in accounts payable (AP) automation and how a people-centric approach can drive better financial performance. Join us for an insightful discussion on how integrating human expertise into automated workflows enhances decision-making, reduces fraud risks, strengthens vendor relationships, and accelerates R
Abnormal Returns
AUGUST 31, 2023
Strategy Some neglected aspects of investing including 'The influence of luck in outcomes.' (investmenttalk.co) The story of a top investor's mistake holding a stock too long. (morningstar.com) Banks How is the integration of First Republic going for JP Morgan Chase ($JPM)? (theinformation.com) More capital would not have saved SVB. (ft.com) Finance A handful of big IPOs are queued up after Labor Day including Instacart, Arm Holdings and Klayvio.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 1, 2023
The headline jobs number in the August employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. The participation rate increased, and the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.8%. The increase in the unemployment rate was due to the increase in the participation rate as 736 thousand people jointed the labor force in August.
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The Big Picture
AUGUST 31, 2023
The Fed’s favored inflation report was a 2.1% annualized (3 months through July) and 3.3% year-over-year. Here is BEA: Personal income increased $45.0 billion (0.2 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (table 3 and table 5). Disposable personal income (DPI), personal income less personal current taxes, increased $7.3 billion (less than 0.1 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $144.6 billio
Abnormal Returns
SEPTEMBER 1, 2023
August 2023 How major asset classes performed in August 2023. (capitalspectator.com) A summary of S&P Dow Jones index returns in August 2023. (on.spdji.com) Rates The bond market is completely different that it was a year ago. (awealthofcommonsense.com) U.S Treasury bonds are no track for their third straight year of losses. (markets.businessinsider.com) Companies How retailers have responded to the post-pandemic era.
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 30, 2023
From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 2.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 25, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.
Wealth Management
AUGUST 30, 2023
The agency urges maintaining robust security measures to protect clients.
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The Big Picture
AUGUST 31, 2023
My end of August, morning train WFH reads: • Money Is Pouring Into AI. Skeptics Say It’s a ‘Grift Shift.’ The move from crypto to artificial intelligence has fueled the markets this year, but some are questioning how much of it is real. ( Institutional Investor ) • What to Do With a 45-Story Skyscraper and No Tenants : HSBC’s plan to leave its Canary Wharf tower for a smaller site shows the global challenges ahead in repurposing unwanted office space for a post-pandemic world. ( Citylab ) see al
Abnormal Returns
AUGUST 29, 2023
Strategy How (and where) to hold cash in your portfolio. (morningstar.com) For alternatives, Is illiquidity a feature or a bug? (savantwealth.com) Don't underestimate how weird the world can be. (mr-stingy.com) Crypto Grayscale won a victory against the SEC raising the prospects of a spot Bitcoin ETF. (blockworks.co) The entire crypto space jumped on the news.
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 31, 2023
Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report from Hannah Jones: Weekly Housing Trends View — Data Week Ending Aug 26, 2023 • Active inventory declined, with for-sale homes lagging behind year ago levels by 5.9%. This past week marked the 10th consecutive decline in the number of homes actively for sale compared to the prior year, however the gap narrowed for the fourth week in a row. • New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale
Wealth Management
AUGUST 31, 2023
Two private equity players take Focus private in an all-cash deal; the firm’s stock has ceased trading on the NASDAQ.
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Nerd's Eye View
SEPTEMBER 1, 2023
Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled that the state's fiduciary rule for broker-dealers can stand, potentially opening the door for other states to impose similar standards that exceed the requirements of the Securities and Exchange Commission's Regulation Best Interest rule.
Abnormal Returns
AUGUST 30, 2023
Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Tyler Olsen about strategically paying down student debt. (peterlazaroff.com) Captain FI talks financial independence with Jonathan Clements. (captainfi.com) Frazer Rice talks longevity and aging with Phil Pearlman of the Pearl Institute. (open.spotify.com) Morgan Housel on the difference between intelligence and smarts.
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 30, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below Peak; Price-to-rent index is 7.6% below recent peak Excerpt: It has been over 17 years since the bubble peak. In the June Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 65% above the bubble peak in 2006.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 1, 2023
Many who custody with one or both have seen no major hiccups so far, while some smaller, TD-only firms expressed confusion and frustration.
Speaker: Aaron Berson
Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g
Nerd's Eye View
AUGUST 30, 2023
Non-compete agreements (where a company prohibits an employee from working for competitors, at least for a certain period of time) are often used to help companies protect their investment in the employee (e.g., the time and money spent training the employee) as well as preventing the employee from taking the company's best practices to a new job at a competitor.
Abnormal Returns
AUGUST 30, 2023
Strategy Why the low interest rate era has come to an end. (ft.com) Generating alpha is more than just stock selection. (flyoverstocks.com) Who is to blame for the behavior gap? (ritholtz.com) ETFs 2023 is on track for a record number of ETF closures. (wsj.com) The SEC's logic in the Grayscale case was flawed. (ft.com) Economy The labor market is not all that tight.
Calculated Risk
SEPTEMBER 1, 2023
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Due to changes at the CDC, weekly cases are no longer updated. After the first few weeks, the pandemic low for weekly deaths had been the week of July 7, 2021, at 1,690 deaths (until recently). Recently hospitalizations have more than doubled from a low of 5,150 in June 2023.
Wealth Management
AUGUST 31, 2023
A policy that performs justifies the premium costs and liquidity constraints. Unfortunately, it's all too common for life insurance to use and hold value that's better deployed elsewhere.
Speaker: Sierre Lindgren
Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.
Nerd's Eye View
AUGUST 28, 2023
The announcement of the merger between Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade in November 2019 kicked off a marathon of preparation for advisory firms to transition their clients on the TD Ameritrade custodial platform to Schwab. And with the final conversion of clients scheduled to take place over the upcoming Labor Day weekend of 2023, the marathon is approaching its final sprint toward the finish line.
The Big Picture
AUGUST 26, 2023
This week, we speak with Vanguard’s chief investment officer Greg Davis. He is responsible for the oversight of approximately $7 trillion managed by Vanguard fixed income, equity index, and quantitative equity groups. Davis also serves as a member of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of the US Treasury Department. He has more than 25 years of investment management experience.
Calculated Risk
AUGUST 28, 2023
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie Mae Single-Family Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Lowest since 2002 Brief excerpt: Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency decreased to 0.54% in July from 0.55% in June. The serious delinquency rate is down year-over-year from 0.76% in July 2022. This is below the pre-pandemic low of 0.65% and the lowest rate since 2002.
Wealth Management
SEPTEMBER 1, 2023
Two new players enter the RIA space; Baird adds a bank team with half a billion in assets; and Creative Planning and Focus Financial both make big announcements.
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Abnormal Returns
AUGUST 28, 2023
Charles Schwab Charles Schwab ($SCHW) is rebranding TDA's video news efforts. (riabiz.com) Charles Schwab ($SCHW) is planning more job cuts due to the TDA integration. (investmentnews.com) Pro bono planning Does financial planning have a pro bono problem? (mywealthplanners.com) The CFP Board wants to encourage pro bono planning. (investmentnews.com) Practice management How choosing an advisory niche makes for better marketing efforts.
Nerd's Eye View
AUGUST 29, 2023
Welcome back to the 348th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Jeff Jones. Jeff is the Owner and Founder of Cypress Financial Planning, an independent RIA based in Haddon Heights, New Jersey, that oversees $275 million in assets under management for 380 client households. What's unique about Jeff, though, is how he built his own financial planning spreadsheets in Excel, and has developed coding and integrations that automatically populate into a Power
The Big Picture
AUGUST 30, 2023
Morningstar blames “mistimed purchases and sales;” Carl Richards calls it the “ Behavior Gap.” Vanguard’s Fran Kinnery describes the cure as “ Advisors Alpha.” Whatever phrase you select, the persistent gap between investors’ performance and the assets they hold is a substantial drag on returns. I mention this in case you missed this Morningstar report “ Mind the Gap: A report on investor returns in the U.S. ” on the topic; it snuck by during the dog days of summer.
Wealth Management
AUGUST 29, 2023
The proposals aim to align tax reporting on digital assets with that of other financial assets.
Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System
Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.
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