Sat.Aug 26, 2023 - Fri.Sep 01, 2023

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Time to get “Real” about the coming recession

David Nelson

By David Nelson, CFA Traveler’s usually follow in the footsteps of those who have successfully navigated the journey before them. Even Dorothy along with a few friends and her trusty dog Toto had the Yellow Brick Road. Investors are no different. We stick to the path as long as we can but have to be prepared to alter course when the weather turns.

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Unemployment Up 0.3% = Fed on Hold

The Big Picture

The Fed is done. It’s unimaginable that they will do anything at the September FOMC meeting, and barring any radical change in the data, it’s unlikely they will be doing anything in November. I have been saying since June 2022 that inflation had peaked; the data has been leaning that way since May 2022. If you were watching the video instead of the still pic , it was apparent that the biggest risk to the economy then was less rising prices than a tardy FOMC over-tightening.

Economy 317
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Thursday links: impulsive and irreverent

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Some neglected aspects of investing including 'The influence of luck in outcomes.' (investmenttalk.co) The story of a top investor's mistake holding a stock too long. (morningstar.com) Banks How is the integration of First Republic going for JP Morgan Chase ($JPM)? (theinformation.com) More capital would not have saved SVB. (ft.com) Finance A handful of big IPOs are queued up after Labor Day including Instacart, Arm Holdings and Klayvio.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (September 2-3)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court ruled that the state's fiduciary rule for broker-dealers can stand, potentially opening the door for other states to impose similar standards that exceed the requirements of the Securities and Exchange Commission's Regulation Best Interest rule.

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Less Stress, More Success: Accounting Best Practices & Processes for 2025

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

Arista Networks upgraded to a buy from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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Friday links: a key consideration

Abnormal Returns

August 2023 How major asset classes performed in August 2023. (capitalspectator.com) A summary of S&P Dow Jones index returns in August 2023. (on.spdji.com) Rates The bond market is completely different that it was a year ago. (awealthofcommonsense.com) U.S Treasury bonds are no track for their third straight year of losses. (markets.businessinsider.com) Companies How retailers have responded to the post-pandemic era.

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Crafting More Equitable Advisor Non-Solicit Agreements With The ACRES Agreement

Nerd's Eye View

Non-compete agreements (where a company prohibits an employee from working for competitors, at least for a certain period of time) are often used to help companies protect their investment in the employee (e.g., the time and money spent training the employee) as well as preventing the employee from taking the company's best practices to a new job at a competitor.

Clients 246
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Clips From Today’s Closing Bell

The Reformed Broker

Final Trades: Alphabet, Transocean & more from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Closing Bell appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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10 Thursday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My end of August, morning train WFH reads: • Money Is Pouring Into AI. Skeptics Say It’s a ‘Grift Shift.’ The move from crypto to artificial intelligence has fueled the markets this year, but some are questioning how much of it is real. ( Institutional Investor ) • What to Do With a 45-Story Skyscraper and No Tenants : HSBC’s plan to leave its Canary Wharf tower for a smaller site shows the global challenges ahead in repurposing unwanted office space for a post-pandemic world. ( Citylab ) see al

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Avoiding Lease Accounting Pitfalls in 2025: Lessons Learned from Spreadsheet Errors

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

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Tuesday links: over-optimized content

Abnormal Returns

Strategy How (and where) to hold cash in your portfolio. (morningstar.com) For alternatives, Is illiquidity a feature or a bug? (savantwealth.com) Don't underestimate how weird the world can be. (mr-stingy.com) Crypto Grayscale won a victory against the SEC raising the prospects of a spot Bitcoin ETF. (blockworks.co) The entire crypto space jumped on the news.

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TD Ameritrade To Schwab Conversion Tips For Financial Advisors

Nerd's Eye View

The announcement of the merger between Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade in November 2019 kicked off a marathon of preparation for advisory firms to transition their clients on the TD Ameritrade custodial platform to Schwab. And with the final conversion of clients scheduled to take place over the upcoming Labor Day weekend of 2023, the marathon is approaching its final sprint toward the finish line.

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Clips From Today’s Halftime Report

The Reformed Broker

U.S. appeals court rules in favor of Grayscale over bitcoin ETF dispute with the SEC from CNBC. The post Clips From Today’s Halftime Report appeared first on The Reformed Broker.

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MiB: Greg Davis, CIO Vanguard

The Big Picture

This week, we speak with Vanguard’s chief investment officer Greg Davis. He is responsible for the oversight of approximately $7 trillion managed by Vanguard fixed income, equity index, and quantitative equity groups. Davis also serves as a member of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of the US Treasury Department. He has more than 25 years of investment management experience.

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Back to Basics with Reconciliations

Join us in this webinar, where we share best practices on how to think about the reconciliation work each month, when best to do reconciliations, how they should be prepared, and some common pitfalls to avoid. Learning Objectives: This course objective is to understand how to properly prepare and review balance sheet reconciliations and its impact on the financial statements.

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Personal finance links: accumulation vs. decumulation

Abnormal Returns

Podcasts Peter Lazaroff talks with Tyler Olsen about strategically paying down student debt. (peterlazaroff.com) Captain FI talks financial independence with Jonathan Clements. (captainfi.com) Frazer Rice talks longevity and aging with Phil Pearlman of the Pearl Institute. (open.spotify.com) Morgan Housel on the difference between intelligence and smarts.

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#FA Success Ep 348: Building Your Own Planning Spreadsheets To Show Clients What They Need To See, With Jeff Jones

Nerd's Eye View

Welcome back to the 348th episode of the Financial Advisor Success Podcast ! My guest on today's podcast is Jeff Jones. Jeff is the Owner and Founder of Cypress Financial Planning, an independent RIA based in Haddon Heights, New Jersey, that oversees $275 million in assets under management for 380 client households. What's unique about Jeff, though, is how he built his own financial planning spreadsheets in Excel, and has developed coding and integrations that automatically populate into a Power

Planning 245
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A Closer Look at Risk & Reward in Bonds Right Now

A Wealth of Common Sense

Jonathan Novy, one of our advisors and insurance experts at Ritholtz Wealth, joined me this week to discuss questions about emergency funds, investing when you don’t have a 401k, annuity yields and long-term care insurance. Further Reading: Why I’m More Worried About the Bond Market Than the Stock Market 1The same is true of CDs. I looked at 5 year CD yields at Marcus today.

Insurance 140
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Mind the Gap

The Big Picture

Morningstar blames “mistimed purchases and sales;” Carl Richards calls it the “ Behavior Gap.” Vanguard’s Fran Kinnery describes the cure as “ Advisors Alpha.” Whatever phrase you select, the persistent gap between investors’ performance and the assets they hold is a substantial drag on returns. I mention this in case you missed this Morningstar report “ Mind the Gap: A report on investor returns in the U.S. ” on the topic; it snuck by during the dog days of summer.

Assets 243
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2024 Lending Outlook: Innovations and Evolutions in the Financial Sector

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

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Wednesday links: opening the vault

Abnormal Returns

Strategy Why the low interest rate era has come to an end. (ft.com) Generating alpha is more than just stock selection. (flyoverstocks.com) Who is to blame for the behavior gap? (ritholtz.com) ETFs 2023 is on track for a record number of ETF closures. (wsj.com) The SEC's logic in the Grayscale case was flawed. (ft.com) Economy The labor market is not all that tight.

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The Word on WealthTech for September 2023

Wealth Management

F2 Strategy's co-founder and CEO provides his take on the most important wealth management technology news of the last month.

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The 60/40 Portfolio is Alive & Well

A Wealth of Common Sense

Rob Isbitts at ETF.com says Jerome Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole is bad news for 60/40 investors: For nearly two decades, investment advisors and self-directed investors came to understand and appreciate “asset allocation” as a complementary combination of stocks and bonds. When rates were falling, bond prices were rising and the stock market was driving higher in those easier credit conditions, that c.

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Construction Spending Increased 0.7% in July

Calculated Risk

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during July 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,972.6 billion, 0.7 percent above the revised June estimate of $1,958.9 billion. The July figure is 5.5 percent above the July 2022 estimate of $1,869.3 billion. emphasis added Private spending increased and public spending decreased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,548.9 billio

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Pricing for Profit: How to Set, Negotiate, and Succeed

Speaker: Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader

In today’s competitive market, pricing is more than just a number — it’s the cornerstone of profitability. The right pricing strategy ensures that you capture the true value of your offering, paving the way for sustainable growth and long-term success. Join Igli Laci, Strategic Finance Leader, in this exclusive session where he will explore how a well-crafted pricing approach balances customer perception with business objectives, creating a powerful tool for securing both competitive advantage a

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Adviser links: motivational interviewing

Abnormal Returns

Charles Schwab Charles Schwab ($SCHW) is rebranding TDA's video news efforts. (riabiz.com) Charles Schwab ($SCHW) is planning more job cuts due to the TDA integration. (investmentnews.com) Pro bono planning Does financial planning have a pro bono problem? (mywealthplanners.com) The CFP Board wants to encourage pro bono planning. (investmentnews.com) Practice management How choosing an advisory niche makes for better marketing efforts.

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Family Offices Look Ready to Step Up Real Estate Investment. What Are They Looking for in Their Partners?

Wealth Management

Transparency in financial reporting, favorable partnership structures are taking on more importance for family offices in a riskier investment climate.

Investing 130
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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

Hey, it’s September! Kick off the new month with our end-of-week 3-day weekend reads: • Rates Are Up. We’re Just Starting to Feel the Heat. Homeowners. Car buyers. Landlords. Big businesses. Here’s who stands to lose—and in some surprising cases, win—as interest rates stay high in the years ahead. ( Wall Street Journal ) • Little evidence that a spot bitcoin ETF would expand the market : BlackRock’s application and Grayscale’s court victory stirred the crypto world, but such investment veh

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It’s Time to Buy Value Stocks Now

The Reformed Broker

Join Downtown Josh Brown and Michael Batnick for another round of What Are Your Thoughts? On this week’s episode, Josh and Michael discuss the biggest topics in investing and finance, including: ►Goldman/Grayscale – They found a buyer. Sounds like it took a week of discussions. ►Earnings Revisions – “Stock prices correcting as earning estimates continue to rise” ►Value Stocks – N.

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Banking on Loyalty: Holistic Financial Advice for Unparalleled Business Growth

Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

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Monday links: a newsletter problem

Abnormal Returns

Companies Google ($GOOGL) has dominated seemingly forever. The cracks are showing. (theverge.com) Nvidia's ($NVDA) near term looks bright. The longer term is open to interpretation. (stratechery.com) How income affects Apple ($AAPL) services adoption. (asymco.com) Startups A look at Klayvio's S-1. (tomtunguz.com) The startup slowdown is translating into lower equity comp.

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Advisors Express Cautious Optimism Ahead Of Schwab, TD Ameritrade Labor Day Account Conversion

Wealth Management

Many who custody with one or both have seen no major hiccups so far, while some smaller, TD-only firms expressed confusion and frustration.

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10 Wednesday AM Reads

The Big Picture

My mid-week morning train reads: • Has Xi Jinping bankrupted China? It is finally possible to imagine a post-Communist regime. ( UnHerd ) • The Pandemic Transformed America’s Biggest Downtowns in Very Different Ways : While transit ridership and downtown dining took a big hit across the board, new commuting patterns and retail spending vary widely across the US. ( Citylab ) • Larry Summers’ Comparison of 2013–23 Inflation with 1966–76 Is Uninformed Madness : How incredibly wrong was Larry Summer

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