Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 21, 2022

Monte Carlo simulations have become the dominant method for conducting financial planning analyses for clients and are a feature of most comprehensive financial planning software programs. By distilling hundreds of pieces of information into a single number that purports to show the percentage chance that a portfolio will not be depleted over the course of a client’s life, advisors often use this data point as the centerpiece when they present a financial plan.

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 18, 2022

At the beginning of each quarter, I prepare a short but in-depth conference call for RWM clients. The team & I put together the most revealing and informative slides. In that half hour, I blow through ~40 slides that capture and explain what is going on. About a quarter of the October 2022 slides were focused on real estate. This is atypical. The reason we emphasized real estate this Q is that housing is very often where we see FOMC policy having its most immediate effect.

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Budgeting Economy Taxes Economics 363

Pragmatic Capitalism

JULY 13, 2022

The most recent headline CPI came in at 9.1% so it might seem odd to think that the risk of disinflation and deflation is rising. But while the CPI is [ … ].

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Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 22, 2022

Bitcoin daily chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com. I have been making notes, some of them incorrectly. Apologies offered. Generational Bottoms Bitcoin is Life Hoot of the Day (From May 2022). Hmm 6 months is up. On May 8, Bitcoin was $34,000. It's now under $16,000. That's OK because 6 months doesn't matter and $1BTC is still $1BTC. Bitcoin Log Chart.

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Accounting Numbers Assets Economics 334

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

Accounting

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 9, 2022

Career shifts Former Peloton ($PTON) CEO John Foley is getting into the rug business. (wsj.com) UBS' Chief Risk Officer is becoming a photographer. (ft.com) Investing Rich people don't typically get rich on alternative investments. (ofdollarsanddata.com) Ten tips for surviving a bear market including 'You’re not limited to one rebalance.' (wealthfoundme.com) Bear markets affect different classes of investors in different ways.

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Nerd's Eye View

DECEMBER 28, 2022

The Setting Every Community Up for Retirement Enhancement (SECURE) Act, passed in December 2019, brought a wide range of changes to the retirement planning landscape, from the death of the ‘stretch’ IRA to raising the age for Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs) to 72. And nearly 3 years to the day after its predecessor was passed, the U.S.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 16, 2022

The traditional finance conference was murdered this week. A stake was driven through its heart by innovators tired of the old ways. It was, to be fair, a mercy killing. Living in the past, running on inertia, nobody bothered to tell the patient that it was time to say your goodbyes before we pull the plug. The industry had forgotten why it even exists: To serve an audience that wants to get out of the office, hang with its peers, and learn how to be better at what it does.

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Nerd's Eye View

SEPTEMBER 29, 2022

As an individual begins planning for retirement, one of the factors often considered is whether (and where) they might relocate to enjoy their retirement. When evaluating their potential options across the U.S., a state’s income tax rules can have a significant impact on where they might choose to live. The perception of a state as having high or low taxes could make it more or less attractive for someone choosing where to relocate, and those perceptions are often skewed by the state’

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The Big Picture

DECEMBER 12, 2022

In this week’s podcast, I chatted with Kathleen McCarthy , Global co-head of Blackstone Real Estate. 1 We recorded this on November 30 th , before all the news broke on the BREIT liquidity gates. But I am very familiar with the product. RWM is a discretionary RIA, which primarily invests in stocks and bonds via ETFs, Mutual Funds, and Direct Indexing.

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Accounting Commission Investments Investing 299

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

Accounting

The Chicago Financial Planner

NOVEMBER 27, 2022

One of the best tax deductions for a small business owner is funding a retirement plan. Beyond any tax deduction you are saving for your own retirement. As a fellow small businessperson, I know how hard you work. You deserve a comfortable retirement. If you don’t plan for your own retirement who will? Two popular small business retirement plans are the SEP-IRA and Solo 401(k).

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Retirement Planning Retirement Planning Financial Planner 263

The Reformed Broker

DECEMBER 1, 2022

LET’S GIVE A ROUND OF APPLAUSE TO SAM BANKMAN-FRIED pic.twitter.com/HIVB3nTX2V — The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) November 30, 2022 Last night’s interview between the New York Times’ Andrew Ross Sorkin and Sam Bankman-Fried ended with the host thanking the accused criminal mastermind for coming, despite the protestations of his lawyers. The audience applauded as the screen went black.

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 17, 2022

. There is a new 60/40 in town, and it is the contribution to inflation from consumer demand for goods and the pandemic-broken supply chain. That is according to a study by Julian di Giovanni, who publishes at the NY Fed’s blog Liberty Street Economics. Over the summer, he posed a fascinating question: How Much Did Supply Constraints Boost U.S. Inflation?

Medicine 363

Medicine Economics Medical Economy 363

The Reformed Broker

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

A lot of reporters and public intellectuals were writing their obituaries for Twitter this weekend. First, we saw the revolt of the Blue Checkmarks. Then, the first inklings of an advertiser exodus. The timing of all this – on the eve of a midterm election that will determine whether or not Americans actually care about democracy – could not have been more ominous.

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Advertising 363

Advertisement

Change is difficult, whether in our private or work life. However, without change, growth and learning are difficult not to mention keeping up with the market and staying competitive. We have all worked for or ourselves are the bosses that prefer to keep the status quo. We will discuss how to address the "change challenge" to enable you to be a changemaker and a graceful recipient of change.

Planning

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 26, 2022

Today’s edition of “ Nobody Knows Anything ” is about a once-dominant mobile phone maker. Exactly 15 years ago, Forbes’s new cover story lauded Olli-Pekka Kallasvuo, Nokia’s CEO. The headline trumpeted: “Nokia, one billion customers – can anyone catch the cell phone king?” It was posted online October 26, 2007 — 15 years ago today.

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Economy Marketing Marketing 364

Mish Talk

DECEMBER 11, 2022

"CZ" Image likeness courtesy of Coin Telegraph article below. Binance's Proof of Reserves Statement When we say Proof of Reserves, we are specifically referring to those assets that we hold in custody for users. This means that we are showing evidence and proof that Binance has funds that cover all of our users assets 1:1, as well as some reserves. When a user deposits one Bitcoin, Binance's reserves increase by at least one Bitcoin to ensure client funds are fully backed.

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Assets Accounting Clients Economics 362

The Reformed Broker

OCTOBER 3, 2022

I’m going to tell you a quick story in the order in which it happened. You were there. You will be familiar with the sequence of these events. But you may not have reached the shocking conclusion that I have. At least not yet. Wait for it… Our story begins in 2019… It was the best of times, it was the best of times. The tail end of a decade of uninterrupted asset price appreciation for the top decile of.

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Mish Talk

DECEMBER 16, 2022

Early Benchmark Revisions of State Payroll Employment Please consider Early Benchmarks for All 50 States and the District of Columbia for the second quarter of 2022. Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Current Employment Statistics (CES).

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Food Sales Economics Retail 361

Advertisement

As we step into 2024, the lending landscape evolves rapidly with technology, regulations, and market dynamics driving change. For banks and financial institutions to stay competitive and meet the evolving needs of their customers, these drivers must be understood and engaged with. Lenders can anticipate significant transformation fueled by technological advancements, regulatory shifts, and changing consumer behaviors.

Banking

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 10, 2022

Imagine the impact of markets losing a ~quarter of their value in one trading session. That was what happened 35 years ago today: October 13 th , Black Monday a/k/a the 1987 crash. If you are a relatively young investor, you may be unfamiliar with what happened that day or why. The 87 crash impacted many market-related elements. We can trace lots of today’s market structure to that event, and the changes it wrought subsequently.

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Insurance Marketing Marketing Portfolio 360

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2022

“I constantly remind our employees to be afraid, to wake up every morning terrified. Not of our competition — but of our customers.” -Jeff Bezos, 1998 Amazon shareholder letter. We all know how much FAANMG stocks have faltered this year, but there is a bigger story brewing: The companies themselves seem to have…lost their way. What once made them great has slipped into their historical legacy, with less innovation and far less delight to its end users.

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Advertising Retail Electronics Insurance 361

The Big Picture

AUGUST 30, 2022

Source: AgWeb. If you are interested (as I am) in Real Estate , then allow me to suggest you consider exploring the world of Farmland. It is something I have done for a while, and it is a fascinating rabbit hole to fall into. Not so much as an investor, but as someone interested in how agriculture works (but yes, there is an investor angle here as well).

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The Reformed Broker

SEPTEMBER 23, 2022

A recession so contrived and man-made that every economist, politician, business owner, college student, CEO, rapper and professional athlete has been able to see it coming in real-time for months and months… Take a picture, you may never see anything so obviously about to happen ever again. A child could have foreseen it. At a certain point, a person who is charge of price stability should probably look in the mirr.

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Speaker: Joe Buhrmann, MBA, CFP®, CLU®, ChFC® Senior Financial Planning Practice Management Consultant eMoney Advisor

During an era of evolving consumer preferences, the banking sector is undergoing a profound shift. As customers continue to broaden their perspectives, banking professionals must support their customers' financial wellness by providing holistic financial advice that aligns with individual goals and circumstances. Without adapting, financial institutions will find that loyalty may crumble amid uncertainty.

Financial Advice

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

Since it is late on a Friday, I thought I might share some quick thoughts about the week. I have been wondering, more than usual, about the disconnect between what we see in falling prices and the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation actions. It is difficult to reconcile Fed rhetoric with the actual price of Goods. One can reach only so many conclusions: Perhaps the Fed is right and everybody else is wrong.

Economy 352

Economy Economics Portfolio 352

The Big Picture

AUGUST 26, 2022

I had a fascinating conversation with an old friend who has been working in a giant bulge bracket firm his entire multi-decade career. What made this particular conversation so intriguing was his sudden epiphany about the Sell-side. Our previous discussions (debates really) were over the traditional model of brokerage I push back against versus the fee-based fiduciary asset management I embrace.

Accounting 353

Accounting Government Assets Management 353

The Big Picture

JULY 22, 2022

After yesterday’s discussion on the uncertainty monster , a friend who “loves perspective changers” reached out with a challenge: “Most people rarely question their own basic ideas,” he said, He challenged me to find 10 concepts to do just that. I agreed to give it a shot, assembling a list of my own, filling it out with a few classics from others: Uncertainty : Objectively speaking “uncertainty” does not increase or decrease – by definition, the future is always inherently uncertain.

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Executive Compensation Government Marketing Marketing 352

The Reformed Broker

OCTOBER 3, 2022

Every bear market has these two things in common: They end Expected returns go up The first thing is self-explanatory. The second thing should be obvious but from my talks with thousands of investors over the years, I have found that it is most certainly not intuitive to most people. When I tell you that expected returns are rising as stock prices fall, this is an overly simplistic way of saying that investors only get.

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Marketing Marketing 345

Speaker: Carolina Aponte - Owner and CEO, Caja Holdings LLC

In today's rapidly changing business environment, building a resilient balance sheet is crucial to the survival of any business. A resilient balance sheet allows a company to withstand financial shocks and adapt to changing market conditions. To achieve this, companies need to focus on key strategies such as maintaining adequate liquidity, managing debt levels, diversifying revenue streams, and prioritizing profitability over growth.

Financial Planning

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 16, 2022

This is pretty mind-blowing: a podcast that is entirely generated by artificial intelligence where Joe Rogan interviews Steve Jobs. One of the most important women in Apple’s history never worked for Apple Margot Comstock took her winnings from a TV game show and bought a computer. It led to a magazine, which turned into a major hub for the nascent community of developers and fans of one of the most important computers in history.

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The Big Picture

JULY 25, 2022

For the first half of this year, I have steadfastly refused to join Club Recessionista. I have not believed we were already in a recession, and I was hopeful that a moderate Fed gradually raising rates to throttle inflation could execute that soft landing. No longer. As I mentioned to Tom Keene last week, Nick Timiraos in the Wall Street Journal revealed the Fed’s intention to raise rates 75 basis points brought a reckoning to my hopes of a non-recessionary growth slow down.

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The Reformed Broker

NOVEMBER 16, 2022

Glamour is a supernatural form of mental compulsion or influence that is specific to vampires. Glamouring is similar to hypnosis, and while all vampires have this power, it needs to be taught as it does not appear to come naturally… The process of glamouring begins with eye contact between a vampire and a respondent. Once eye contact is made, the respondent is held in a trance, making them susceptible to the pow.

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