The Big Picture

DECEMBER 18, 2024

@TBPInvictus here Our story so far : California has been raising its minimum wage for the past decade, starting at $8/hour through 2013. Many fast food workers (specifically) got bumped to $20/hour, from $16, in April (the law is very specific about who is eligible for the increase). Over that decade, with its minimum wage rising, California’s fast food industry has bested the rest of the US by leaps and bounds.

Food 307

Food Math Numbers Economics 307

Abnormal Returns

JULY 28, 2024

Top clicks this week What is the best performing stock of all-time? (mebfaber.com) Three investment myths, debunked. (morningstar.com) Lessons learned from the best performing stocks of all-time. (awealthofcommonsense.com) For investors, inflation is THE enemy. (disciplinefunds.com) Ian Cassel, "Most big winners were ugly ducklings that transformed themselves into beautiful swans.

Assets 317

Assets Investing Investments Marketing 317

Nerd's Eye View

NOVEMBER 28, 2024

How much to charge for financial advice is rarely a decision made lightly. A firm's pricing strategy often reflects both the local market (or niche-related) norms – such as the nearly-ubiquitous 1%. Others may align with broader industry trends, like transitioning to fee-only structures to buffer against market volatility. Still others may choose a hybrid model, combining AUM fees with additional charges for other services like tax planning.

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Clients Financial Planner Fee Only Financial Planning 244

The Big Picture

MAY 2, 2024

The Fed held its benchmark Federal-Funds rate steady yesterday at 5.25% – 5.5%, leaving the possibility of cuts in the future. Jerome Powell repeated his “ Data Dependent ” mantra. “Persuasive evidence” that higher interest rates were no longer necessary to bring down inflation is what the FOMC wants, and today I want to share a few pieces of that evidence.

Budgeting 363

Budgeting 363

Speaker: Sierre Lindgren

Fraud is a battle that every organization must face – it’s no longer a question of “if” but “when.” Every organization is a potential target for fraud, and the finance department is often the bullseye. From cleverly disguised emails to fraudulent payment requests, the tactics of cybercriminals are advancing rapidly. Drawing insights from real-world cases and industry expertise, we’ll explore the vulnerabilities in your processes and how to fortify them effectively.

Assets

The Big Picture

AUGUST 12, 2024

I’m deep in my book writing work discussing federal debt when I see a tweet that simply epitomizes the entire genre. Full disclosure: My priors on federal debt are that I don’t know where the line of too much should be drawn, but I do know that none of the terrible things we were warned about over the past 50 years due to excess debt have come to pass.

Economy 347

Economy Taxes Investments Investing 347

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 26, 2024

In celebration of Abbey Road being released 55 years ago today (September 26, 1969), here is a short, Beatles-related excerpt from my upcoming book: “ How Not To Invest: The ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth – and how to avoid them.” The book is being published ~March 18, 2025, and is available for pre-ording today.

Numbers 334

Numbers Communication Media Investing 334

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 22, 2024

A quick note to answer this question: What happens after markets make a new all-time high (after a year w/o one)? Check out the table above, via Warren Pies. He spoke with Batnick and Josh earlier this month. Going back to 1954, markets are always higher one year later – the only exception was 2007. That was after housing had peaked, subprime mortgages were defaulting, and the great financial crisis was about to start.

Economics 349

Economics Marketing Marketing Investments 349

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

What do the Great Depression, the Great Financial Crisis, the Stagflationary 1970s, and the upcoming 10-years have in common? If you are a strategist at Goldman Sachs , then a lot. At least if you do forecasts for market returns over the next decade (lol), you may see incredible similarities. ICYMI: David Kostin and his team of strategists see a 72% chance the S&P 500 underperforms Treasuries, and a 33% possibility equities return less than inflation.

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Distribution Economics Portfolio Economy 326

The Big Picture

JULY 7, 2024

@TBPInvictus here If you’re tired of California-minimum-wage-and-its-impact-on-limited-service-restaurant-employment stories, I understand. Leave this page immediately. I’m tired of it, too, but some stories are so factually challenged that they demand a response. So, allow me to address a hot mess of a story that appeared recently in the California Globe.

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Food Math Numbers Media 338

Speaker: Aaron Berson

Managing spend is more than a cost cutting exercise – it's a pathway to smarter decisions that unlock efficiency and drive growth. By understanding and refining the spending process, financial leaders can empower their organizations to achieve more with less. Explore the art of balancing financial control with operational growth. From uncovering hidden inefficiencies to designing workflows that scale your business, we’ll share strategies to align your organization’s spending with its strategic g

Management

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 9, 2024

 ATM: Valuation is an exercise in faith with Aswath Damodaran. (October 9, 2024) Do you understand the difference between price and value? How much faith do you have that any stock or market will eventually return to its intrinsic value? Full transcript below. ~~~ About this week’s guest: Professor Aswath Damodaran of NYU Stern School of Business is known as the Dean of Valuation.

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Valuation Investments Investing Marketing 325

The Big Picture

JUNE 9, 2024

@TBPInvictus here. About a decade or so ago, the city of Seattle undertook to raise its minimum wage, over time, to $15/hour. (Massive credit to my friend Nick Hanauer for his efforts to make that happen.) What followed in the immediate aftermath of both the announcement and implementation was nothing less than a apocalyptic, collective head explosion on the right about the devastating effects the increase would have, particularly in the food services sector: However, there’s little doubt that t

Food 336

Food Math Numbers 336

The Big Picture

MARCH 28, 2024

“Our comforting conviction that the world makes sense rests on a secure foundation: Our almost unlimited ability to ignore our ignorance.” – Daniel Kahneman The loss of Danny Kahneman is a reminder that we should review some of his work and apply them to the current market. I am fascinated by the idea of Narrative Fallacy (the term was actually coined by Nassim Taleb in “ The Black Swan “) and how it applies to pretty much ewverything.

Manufacturing 340

Manufacturing Economy Economics Marketing 340

The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2024

Nestled in between lip-sync dancers and fashion influencers, financial fraud lurks on TikTok. At least one person1 has noticed the risks to young consumers of social media: Since August 2020, @TikTokInvestors has been curating the most outrageous money-losing and dangerous videos culled from the “financial experts” at TikTok. The advice ranges from wrong to risky to criminal: -401ks?

Media 337

Media Taxes Math Investments 337

Speaker: Duke Heninger, Partner and Fractional CFO at Ampleo & Creator of CFO System

Are you ready to elevate your accounting processes for 2025? 🚀 Join us for an exclusive webinar led by Duke Heninger, a seasoned fractional CFO and CPA passionate about transforming back-office operations for finance teams. This session will cover critical best practices and process improvements tailored specifically for accounting professionals.

Accounting

The Big Picture

MARCH 18, 2024

There has been a lot of chatter about magazine covers lately; I thought I might clarify some of the with this post, originally published in Bloomberg on December 27, 2017, along with commentary from Ben and Josh addressing the sdame issue. The key takeaway: The value of the signal here is just about zero. The 2017 Barron’s cover (above) showing Apple’s extravagant new headquarters and suggesting that the company’s market value would reach $1 trillion in 2018 generated some chat

Marketing 336

Marketing Marketing Media Investments 336

The Big Picture

MARCH 15, 2024

We sometimes say “Demographics is Destiny,” but that’s abstract. To get a visual sense of what that looks like, see the above chart (via Blackrock ) showing the distribution of various age groups from 2075 to 2050. Note bars in Red are not in the workforce. The post U.S. population distribution, 1975-2050 appeared first on The Big Picture.

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Distribution 329

The Big Picture

JANUARY 8, 2024

What are the Bull and Bear cases for 2024? I don’t do annual forecasts1 because the short-term is way too random. Instead, I prefer to consider market history and recent data, and ask “What are the possible and probable outcomes for this year?” I find it very useful as an investor to be able to see both sides of the bull-bear debate.

Economy 332

Economy Banking Marketing Marketing 332

The Big Picture

JUNE 27, 2024

I’ve been observing how radically unusual various sentiment readings have been for a few years now. It made little sense to me that the post-pandemic era saw sentiment levels far below major dislocations such as the ‘87 crash, the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Dotcom implosion, or the 08-09 great financial crisis. We have tried to identify the causal factors by considering social media , increases in partisanship , ignorance, even trolling of pollsters.

Economics 322

Economics Budgeting Sales Media 322

Speaker: Abdi Ali, Sr. Lease Accounting Consultant

Join this insightful webinar with industry expert Abdi Ali, who will discuss the challenges that can arise from managing lease accounting with spreadsheets! He will share real-world examples of errors, compliance issues, and risks that may be present within your spreadsheets. Learn how these tools, while useful, can sometimes lead to inefficiencies that affect your time, resources, and peace of mind.

Accounting

The Big Picture

JANUARY 2, 2024

I am popping out of book leave to share this single data point that snuck out over the holidays: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s State Coincident Indicators for November 2023. I like the SCI – its broad, consistent, and does not operate with too big of a lag. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 25 states, decreased in 21 states, and remained stable in four, for a three-month diffusion index of 8.

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Banking Manufacturing Marketing Marketing 332

The Big Picture

JUNE 6, 2024

I spend a lot of time debunking investment-related b t. Given the general innumeracy of the public, it’s easy for a dishonest publisher of economic data to create narratives that are not only false and misleading but effective at confusing the public. Typically, it takes years before sufficient data amasses to prove how wrong these people were.

Economics 64

Economics Sales Numbers Marketing 64

The Big Picture

MAY 16, 2024

The Misery Index — the combination of Inflation and unemployment — failed as a bearish criticism of the economy. Unemployment remains at 60-year lows, and Inflation has plummeted from 9% down to the 3s. If you have a bearish mindset , and seek confirmation of that perspective, then the next economic critique after the Misery Index you try on for size is “Stagflation.” We have heard the S-word from Jamie Dimon , Stanley Druckenmiller , Bank of America , Barclays , Fox , Ma

Advertising 322

Advertising Economics Economy Banking 322

The Big Picture

JULY 9, 2024

A quick break from book duty and doing our quarterly client call to share this fascinating discussion from tennis great Roger Federer: “In the 1,526 singles matches I played in my career, I won almost 80% of those matches… What percentage of the POINTS do you think I won in those matches? Only 54%.” -Roger Federer This is one of those great commencement addresses that will only gain stature over time.

Clients 317

Clients 317

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Planning

Abnormal Returns

JULY 14, 2024

Top clicks this week How the rise of automated investing has changed the stock market. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Why Bill Ackman spends so much time on Twitter. (sherwood.news) The CAPM doesn't work. Maybe this measure does. (klementoninvesting.substack.com) Why young men around the world are breaking hard to the right. (politico.com) Today's constructive CPI report rang a bell for financial markets.

Economy 317

Economy Financial Market Investments Investing 317

The Big Picture

JUNE 17, 2024

A quick break from book authorship to share a fascinating set of data and charts, via Sam Ro. In his weekly missive, Sam points to some amazing charts from Global Financial Data. They are based on historical data that looks at 200 Years of Market Concentration. You might be surprised at the findings. As the chart above shows, there are long periods of market concentration.

Marketing 317

Marketing Marketing Engineering Economics 317

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 25, 2024

Top clicks this week 15 sure-fire ways to lose money in the markets. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Successful investors have a long time horizon. (awealthofcommonsense.com) Stop paying attention to stuff that doesn't matter. (behaviouralinvestment.com) What do you get when you buy a share of Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.B)? (sherwood.news) It's not your imagination, market moves are getting faster.

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Investments Investing Marketing Marketing 311

Abnormal Returns

JUNE 16, 2024

Also on the site Father time is undefeated: on the impact of cognitive decline on financial outcomes. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week The S&P 500 is getting three new members. (reuters.com) We are in a 'bear market for diversification.' (thinkadvisor.com) The stock market is increasingly concentrated. Should you be worried? (theirrelevantinvestor.com) More investors are facing up to the problem with illiquid alternatives.

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Taxes Portfolio Marketing Marketing 316

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Banking

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2024

Marty’s Zweig’s Trading rules 1) The trend is your friend; don’t fight the tape hard return; 2) Let profits run take losses quickly; 3) If you buy for a reason and that reason if discounted or is no longer valid then sell 4) if the values don’t make sense then don’t participate (2 + 2 = 4) 5) The cheap get cheaper the deer get deer; 6) Don’t fight the Fed (less valid than #1); 7) Every indicator eventually bites the dust; 8) Adapt to change; 9) Don’t let your

Marketing 307

Marketing Marketing 307

Abnormal Returns

JULY 7, 2024

Top clicks this week How major asset classes performed in June 2024. (capitalspectator.com) Just how useful is historical financial markets data? (retirementresearcher.com) Don't forget, stocks are real assets. (downtownjoshbrown.com) Europe's stock market has badly lagged the U.S. How much longer can it last? (awealthofcommonsense.com) Beware small sample sizes.

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Insurance Assets Financial Market Investments 312

Abnormal Returns

JULY 21, 2024

Also on the site this week Why meme stocks and sh*tcoins are the logical outgrowth of the analytics revolution. (abnormalreturns.com) A lifetime subscription is anything but. (abnormalreturns.com) Top clicks this week Seven reasons you may want to venture away from the market portfolio. (humbledollar.com) Rebalance your portfolio to tame risk, not to increase returns.

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Portfolio Banking Assets Management 310