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3rd Quarter Economic And Market Outlook: Understanding Risks And Opportunities In The Web Of Inflation, Interest Rates, Valuations, And More

Nerd's Eye View

In reality, though, the economy is a complex web of interdependent factors where events often make sense only in hindsight – and sometimes, not at all. The expectations for the future economic outlook also appear in the valuations of equities, which tend to reflect how markets anticipate that corporate earnings will grow in the future.

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Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns

Abnormal Returns

scienceblog.com) What are to make of the big, and persistent, valuation disparities between large and small caps. kk.org) A look at how geopolitical events affect the stock market. (collabfund.com) At what age do we say people are 'old'? carsongroup.com) How much do higher taxes prompt millionaires to relocate?

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Five Major Issues on Investors’ Minds: Inflation, Recession, Valuations, AI Stocks, Geopolitics

Validea

We discuss how investors should think about inflation and the potential for a future recession, how to interpret market valuations, the impact of AI stocks on the market and whether political and geopolitical events should play a role in an investment strategy.

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Five Major Issues on Investors’ Minds: Inflation, Recession, Valuations, AI Stocks, Geopolitics

Validea

We discuss how investors should think about inflation and the potential for a future recession, how to interpret market valuations, the impact of AI stocks on the market and whether political and geopolitical events should play a role in an investment strategy.

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Sunday links: household finances

Abnormal Returns

frontofficesports.com) Why seed stage valuations haven't dropped as much as you would think. reuters.com) Apple Insights from this week's big Apple event. Finance Goldman Sachs ($GS) want to sell HNW clients a piece of a sports franchise. hunterwalk.com) Fund management How securities lending works.

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Why International Diversification Is Still The Prudent Strategy (While Keeping Behavioral Biases, Risks, And Results In A Healthy Perspective)

Nerd's Eye View

Contrary to the view that global diversification may offer little protection from market declines, it is especially salient in cases of a worldwide recession – while the average individual country’s returns after such an event tend to stay depressed, global portfolios go on to eventually recover.

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Two Things I’m Not Worried About

A Wealth of Common Sense

The next Black Swan event. The level of interest rates and inflation and valuations and the Fed and basically everything else. Finance people spend a lot of time worrying. About the next recession. The next bear market. This makes sense. The bad stuff hurts more than the good stuff feels good so risk management rules the day.