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Fed's Beige Book: "Economic activity increased slightly to moderately"

Calculated Risk

Manufacturing decreased slightly on net, and a number of Districts said manufacturers were stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs. The nonfinancial services sector grew slightly overall, with Districts highlighting growth in leisure and hospitality and transportation, notably air travel.

Economics 162
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ADP: Private Employment Increased 146,000 in November

Calculated Risk

Manufacturing was the weakest we've seen since spring. Financial services and leisure and hospitality were also soft.” From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 146,000 Jobs in November; Annual Pay was Up 4.8% emphasis added This was below the consensus forecast of 166,000.

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Schedule for Week of February 9, 2025

Calculated Risk

For manufacturing, the January Industrial Production report will be released this week. House Financial Services Committee -- Thursday, February 13th -- 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The key reports this week are January CPI and Retail sales. The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.9%

Retail 162
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Monday links: riding out bear markets

Abnormal Returns

ft.com) Don't discount Apple's ($AAPL) push into financial services. abnormalreturns.com) Are you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? manufacturing plant. (dariusforoux.com) Recency bias is the bane of investors. macworld.com) Twitter has stopped funding VCs it has committed to.

Marketing 264
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ADP: Private Employment Increased 184,000 in March

Calculated Risk

The three biggest increases for job-changers were in construction, financial services, and manufacturing,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. Inflation has been cooling, but our data shows pay is heating up in both goods and services.” emphasis added This was above the consensus forecast of 155,000.

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BEA: Real GDP increased at 4.9% Annualized Rate in Q3

Calculated Risk

Within services, the leading contributors were housing and utilities, health care, financial services and insurance, and food services and accommodations. The increase in private inventory investment reflected increases in manufacturing and retail trade.

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BEA: Real GDP increased at 1.6% Annualized Rate in Q1

Calculated Risk

The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within services, the increase primarily reflected increases in health care as well as financial services and insurance. Within imports, the increase reflected increases in both goods and services.