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Government Spending Is Out of Control! LOL

The Big Picture

Let’s delve into a case in point of Coase’s theorem: If you wanted to peddle the narrative that government spending is out of control, you might present a chart like the one above, which is an exact replica of a chart that appeared recently in a piece of research from a major Wall St. investment firm. How can this be?

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Lessons of “Number Go Up”

The Big Picture

Recently, a post utterly perplexed me: “One doesn’t get a favorable impression of crypto from Number Go Up but in fact one doesn’t learn much about crypto at all. Thus, I was entertained by Number Go Up , but didn’t learn much.” Because Number Go Up technology means it’s going higher! Jury is still out.

Numbers 318
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CoreLogic: 1.1 million Homeowners with Negative Equity in Q4 2024

Calculated Risk

Quarter-over-quarter, the total number of mortgage residential properties with negative equity increased by 9.3% The states that saw the largest gains were New Jersey ($39,400), Connecticut ($36,300), and Massachusetts ($34,400), while the largest losses were in Hawaii ($-28,700), Florida ($-18,100), and the District of Columbia ($-14,700).

Numbers 191
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March Employment Preview

Calculated Risk

Government job growth is expected to come in at just 10k due to the federal hiring freeze/DOGE. ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). It seems early for the government related layoffs to significantly impact employment.

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Weekend Reading For Financial Planners (January 11–12)

Nerd's Eye View

Enjoy the current installment of "Weekend Reading For Financial Planners" - this week's edition kicks off with the news that the "Social Security Fairness Act" was signed into law this week, eliminating the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO) provisions, which previously reduced the Social Security benefits (..)

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MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Increases to 0.50% in November The Mortgage Bankers Associations (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance increased to 0.50% as of November 30, 2024. According to MBAs estimate, 250,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans.

Portfolio 147
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MBA Survey: "Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in November"

Calculated Risk

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Remains Flat at 0.70% in November The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained flat relative to the prior month at 0.70% as of November 30, 2022. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.