Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 21, 2023

First up was a webinar about model portfolios at ETF.com. Outsourcing the work related to actually being an advisor would not feel right to me and I enjoy what I get to do including portfolio construction. I think that when investors hear about model portfolios they sort of think in terms of set and forget.

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The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

Let’s delve into these to see if they apply to your own investing and trading: Instinct : Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking , discusses the strengths and capabilities of the “ adaptive unconscious.” And, it has the advantage of leaving your actual investments alone.

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Alpha Architect

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Many risks important for our portfolios are new, hidden, or nuanced in some underappreciated way—and likely to be misunderstood and mispriced in the markets. Other risks can hide in plain sight. In short: we need informed creativity, not calculation. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Brown Advisory

JANUARY 17, 2024

Global Leaders Strategy Investment Letter: January 2024 bgregorio Wed, 01/17/2024 - 05:23 Just want the PDF? Download it here Darwinian Investing: The Science of Rejection The outperformance of the “Magnificent Seven”1 during 2023 led to many questions from our investors (for instance “why are you underweight the Mag 7?”)

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Getting Your Financial Ducks In A Row

OCTOBER 31, 2022

The problem is that, in stock market investing, short term losses and gains are simply normal market activity, and we need to temper our emotions to keep things in perspective. On the other hand, other studies tell us that a guaranteed income from an investment is preferred over an assured return on investment over time.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 11, 2024

Avoiding long duration bonds was a big theme to my writing (and portfolio construction) for a long time, still is, but then the thought evolved to where I started saying that long duration fixed income has a source of unreliable volatility that makes it very difficult to model it in to a portfolio with any confidence.

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Darrow Wealth Management

MAY 22, 2023

Should you hold cash or invest in the market? Attractive yields on savings and cash-like investments can make it tempting to hold cash instead of investing extra money. Hold cash or invest? For those considering holding cash instead of investing, recognize that this strategy has risks too. 467% a month.

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David Nelson

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

Myth of the Elite 7 – Mega cap stocks were not the only path to success Challenging the Status Quo – Over-reliance on traditional investment mantras, in particular conventional wisdom surrounding the Federal Reserve has been an investment loser Reality Check – Lightning rarely strikes in the same place twice.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

It's been a while since this sort of thing was relevant for my day job so something could have changed, weeklies didn't exist for example, but if my math is correct then it was way over exposed which would account for last week's decline in the fund price. Please leave a comment if I did the work incorrectly.

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The Big Picture

MAY 15, 2023

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Ken Griffin’s Hand-Picked Math Prodigy Runs Market-Making Empire : Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao left for college at age 14, caught Griffin’s eye early in his career and built systems now mopping up market share. TKer ) • The Debt Ceiling Dispute Raises the Risks for ‘Risk-Free’ U.S.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 22, 2023

This Tweet was embedded in a thread; The context in the Tweet before was that he was on Cavuto to talk about an upcoming book and he believes that investing can be simple. No question, investing can be pretty simple. And then just a little math, the "guarantee" based on the 50/50 allocation would be 2.5%

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 22, 2024

Jason Zweig wrote an article titled How Not to Invest in the Bond Market. This blog has pretty much evolved into 100 ways to build a portfolio without bonds. The article devoted a good amount of space to bond market math, focusing on the pain of owning the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) and bond funds in general.

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Trade Brains

DECEMBER 7, 2023

From budgeting basics to investments, these courses offer a comprehensive foundation for managing your money in a better way. Personal Finance for Beginners by FinGrad FinGrad Academy is an educational platform that offers various courses on financial products for better investment opportunities. You can enroll in the course here.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 29, 2024

I've been saying meaningful yield without too much volatility is what investors hope the bond portion of their portfolio will give. The simple 40 year trade for bonds of "number go up" is finished and as a matter of math, can't be repeated. Taking volatility out of a fixed income portfolio is fairly simple.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

That argument might pan out but being cynical for a moment, how many pundits who have been saying to add duration here, were right about avoiding duration for investing as opposed to trading for gains at any point when yields were at all time lows and going lower? It is important to understand the math though.

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. Businessweek ) but see With cash earning 5%, why risk money on the stock market?

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 8, 2023

Barron's had a fun article that looked at some ideas from William Bernstein titled The Trick To A Bullet Proof Portfolio? Invest For The Very Worst Of The Worst. We've studied the Permanent Portfolio and 75/50 going way back to more recently the Cockroach Portfolio and the Dragon Portfolio. Same with the others.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Elizabeth Burton is Goldman Sachs asset management’s client investment strategist. Previously she was Chief Investment Officer at various state pension funds, including Maryland and Hawaii. I, I found this to be really an intriguing conversation with somebody who, whose investment charge is unconstrained. Two reasons.

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

I love finding these people who are just absolute rock stars within their space that most of the investing public probably is not familiar with, haven’t heard about them. Tremendous track record, unusual background comes from computer science and software and, and pivoted into quantitative investing. So I was at Harvard.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 10, 2024

We've talked just a couple of times about the market becoming increasingly concentrated which just in terms of math means that a diversified strategy will lag for as long as the big names do well. In the period available to study SPXE, there has been no difference in returns, volatility or portfolio stats.

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The Big Picture

OCTOBER 17, 2023

  The transcript from this week’s MiB: Graeme Forster, Orbis Investments , is below. Barry Ritholtz] This week on the podcast, I have an extra special guest, Graham Foster’s pm at Orbis Investment Management. They have a truly unique approach to investing. So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math.

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Clever Girl Finance

OCTOBER 20, 2022

Meanwhile, cash equivalents are investments that can be sold for cash relatively quickly and easily while still maintaining their market value. A highly liquid investment is one that: Is in an established liquid market. Suppose you want to make a down payment on a home or take advantage of a big, new investment opportunity.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 24, 2024

That is correct, technically but whatever you're looking for from REITs, or private equity or any of the others, you're not going to see it impact the portfolio as part of an index fund. Mistakes during those types of events are what managing portfolios is all about.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 1, 2024

Anything related to the Permanent Portfolio (portfolio devised by Harry Browne weighting 25% each to stocks, long bonds, cash and gold) or any of the Permanent Portfolio-inspired modern investment products are always fun to look at. I wanted to circle back to the ProShares S&P 500 High Income ETF (ISPY).

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 17, 2023

What income sources do you have like SS, investment account or anything else? Simple math is that this person needs to save $23/yr to come up with that additional $350,000. But simple math tells you that adding $5000/yr likely won't cut it. Time invested on the front end is our best chance to avoid the "last resort" choice.

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Investing Caffeine

FEBRUARY 1, 2022

Math Matters. I did okay in school and was educated on many different topics, including the basic principle that math matters. This notion rings especially true when it comes to finance and investing. With that said, I am always quick to point out that diversification in a portfolio is important (i.e., www.Sidoxia.com.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 10, 2023

A little more specifically the need for diversified portfolios persists with the implication that bonds are the way to get this done. This chart contributes to the logic supporting a 60/40 portfolio. As a matter of math, it cannot repeat the run from 8.5% down to 0.50% let alone from the all time high of 15% down to 0.50%.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 3, 2024

Do the math on your particulars like what your various sources of earned income will likely be, how much your RMDs will likely be and so on. How much can you take from your portfolio? They are not intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice or a recommended course of action in any given situation.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 8, 2023

Here are some other numbers compared to the S&P 500 and VBAIX which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. Very simply, each dollar invested gives you $1 of exposure to bonds plus $1 of exposure to managed futures, so there is leverage. It invests 90% in stocks and leverages up to get 60% in fixed income.

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The Irrelevant Investor

MARCH 18, 2020

The math behind lump sum over dollar-cost averaging has been settled, but this is a time where emotions matter more than spreadsheets. It's also worth saying the obvious, which is that you don't have to have 100% of your portfolio invested in stocks. It doesn't matter when you buy, only that you buy.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

He has a fascinating background in technology and software, and is interested in all sorts of interesting things, ranging from climate change to humanism, to the huge transitions that humans have gone through as a species and what it means to society, investing, scarcity and just the quality of life that we will enjoy as a species.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 27, 2022

In my ongoing quest to redefine portfolio construction, I've mentioned labeling asset classes based on their attributes versus just their proper names like growth which could include more than just equities or inflation protected which could include more than just TIPS and so on. We talk frequently about portfolios being relatively simple.

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Carson Wealth

MARCH 2, 2023

While the ultra-high-net-worth population might indeed be able to live off their investments and the resulting interest without ever earning another dime, they also are likely to have a certain echelon of lifestyle that can still put them at risk if they don’t make good financial decisions.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 29, 2023

FAIRX is 82% invested in Florida real estate developer St. Here I am talking not just portfolio management but overall lifestyle, habits and choices and yes this does filter into my day job managing investment portfolios. I probably wrote about this one a couple of times back in the first iteration of this blog.

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Steve Sanduski

AUGUST 4, 2022

I’ll go straight to the punch line —> The average RIA firm had negative revenue growth over the past five years if you exclude market movement using a traditional 60/40 market portfolio as a proxy for RIA investment allocations. With a traditional 60/40 allocation, this portfolio would have grown about 75.5%

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Darrow Wealth Management

OCTOBER 1, 2022

On the flip side, not having a mortgage in retirement can be beneficial if it reduces overall lifestyle costs and how much you’ll need to draw from your portfolio in retirement. However, if the goal is to pay off a mortgage before retirement to spend would-be mortgage payments on other things during retirement, the math may not work out.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 19, 2023

If the 4% treasury portfolio pays out $50,000 today, it will pay the same $50,000 in 2038 with no growth in account value. I invest in buy-write ETFs that pay 11% or more per year in dividends, which pay monthly (so about 1% per month). Part of the math that determines options premiums is the risk free rate of return from T-bills.

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