Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 21, 2023

First up was a webinar about model portfolios at ETF.com. Outsourcing the work related to actually being an advisor would not feel right to me and I enjoy what I get to do including portfolio construction. I think that when investors hear about model portfolios they sort of think in terms of set and forget.

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Getting Your Financial Ducks In A Row

OCTOBER 31, 2022

It has further been estimated that as we approach retirement, this ratio increases to a factor of five times more pain for a loss as opposed to the joy we experience for a gain. On the other hand, other studies tell us that a guaranteed income from an investment is preferred over an assured return on investment over time.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

Barron's dusted off the retirement bucket playbook in an article while also arguing that a 5% withdrawal rate in retirement can now be considered safe versus the more common 4%. The way the math works out, 4% has a success rate in the low 90's based on simulations and has never failed looking backward. Always read the comments.

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Trade Brains

DECEMBER 7, 2023

From budgeting basics to investments, these courses offer a comprehensive foundation for managing your money in a better way. Personal Finance for Beginners by FinGrad FinGrad Academy is an educational platform that offers various courses on financial products for better investment opportunities. You can enroll in the course here.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 10, 2024

We've talked just a couple of times about the market becoming increasingly concentrated which just in terms of math means that a diversified strategy will lag for as long as the big names do well. I looked at the Vanguard Target Retirement 2025 (VTTVX) and the Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 (VTHRX).

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 11, 2024

Avoiding long duration bonds was a big theme to my writing (and portfolio construction) for a long time, still is, but then the thought evolved to where I started saying that long duration fixed income has a source of unreliable volatility that makes it very difficult to model it in to a portfolio with any confidence.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 3, 2024

I haven't seen too many scenarios where Roth conversions were optimal as most people don't earn more after they retire. Do the math on your particulars like what your various sources of earned income will likely be, how much your RMDs will likely be and so on. How much are you likely to end up with in your retirement accounts?

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The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. If you’re depending on income to fund your retirement, 5% rates are a blessing.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

It's been a while since this sort of thing was relevant for my day job so something could have changed, weeklies didn't exist for example, but if my math is correct then it was way over exposed which would account for last week's decline in the fund price. Please leave a comment if I did the work incorrectly.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 22, 2023

This Tweet was embedded in a thread; The context in the Tweet before was that he was on Cavuto to talk about an upcoming book and he believes that investing can be simple. No question, investing can be pretty simple. And then just a little math, the "guarantee" based on the 50/50 allocation would be 2.5%

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 9, 2023

Generally speaking, pensions are less viable than they used to be, the math doesn't work as well. The only pension I am remotely close to is the Arizona Public Safety Personnel Retirement System. The concept of pensions is that they provide a security net to retired workers. Is he right? Is he wrong? If correct, that argues no.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 29, 2024

I've been saying meaningful yield without too much volatility is what investors hope the bond portion of their portfolio will give. The simple 40 year trade for bonds of "number go up" is finished and as a matter of math, can't be repeated. Taking volatility out of a fixed income portfolio is fairly simple.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 22, 2024

Jason Zweig wrote an article titled How Not to Invest in the Bond Market. This blog has pretty much evolved into 100 ways to build a portfolio without bonds. The article devoted a good amount of space to bond market math, focusing on the pain of owning the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) and bond funds in general.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 10, 2023

There was a lot of content from various places over the weekend about whether it is time to go back into bonds, what retired investors should do for yield and even whether retirees are better off going 100% into equities. This chart contributes to the logic supporting a 60/40 portfolio. Barron's also noted that 60/40 was up 9.6%

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

That argument might pan out but being cynical for a moment, how many pundits who have been saying to add duration here, were right about avoiding duration for investing as opposed to trading for gains at any point when yields were at all time lows and going lower? It is important to understand the math though.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 8, 2023

Barron's had a fun article that looked at some ideas from William Bernstein titled The Trick To A Bullet Proof Portfolio? Invest For The Very Worst Of The Worst. We've studied the Permanent Portfolio and 75/50 going way back to more recently the Cockroach Portfolio and the Dragon Portfolio. Same with the others.

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Clever Girl Finance

OCTOBER 20, 2022

Meanwhile, cash equivalents are investments that can be sold for cash relatively quickly and easily while still maintaining their market value. Retirement accounts. A highly liquid investment is one that: Is in an established liquid market. skip adding your real estate, retirement accounts, etc.). Cash can be: Cash.

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Yardley Wealth Management

JULY 20, 2022

James and Pamela’s Big Dream Excerpt from The Smart Person’s Guide to Financial Planning & Investments: A Simple and Straightforward Approach to Understanding Your Personal Finances By Michael J. Their retirement plan is strong, their kids are independent, and they are debt-free. So—problem solved, right? Well, actually, no.

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The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Elizabeth Burton is Goldman Sachs asset management’s client investment strategist. Previously she was Chief Investment Officer at various state pension funds, including Maryland and Hawaii. I, I found this to be really an intriguing conversation with somebody who, whose investment charge is unconstrained. Two reasons.

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The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

I love finding these people who are just absolute rock stars within their space that most of the investing public probably is not familiar with, haven’t heard about them. Tremendous track record, unusual background comes from computer science and software and, and pivoted into quantitative investing. So I was at Harvard.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 1, 2023

A quick excerpt from a post a couple of weeks ago about retirement misconceptions. I would much rather withdraw 10% or more per year from my retirement accounts and do it without taking any principal. I invest in buy-write ETFs that pay 11% or more per year in dividends, which pay monthly (so about 1% per month).

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 24, 2024

That is correct, technically but whatever you're looking for from REITs, or private equity or any of the others, you're not going to see it impact the portfolio as part of an index fund. Mistakes during those types of events are what managing portfolios is all about.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 27, 2022

In my ongoing quest to redefine portfolio construction, I've mentioned labeling asset classes based on their attributes versus just their proper names like growth which could include more than just equities or inflation protected which could include more than just TIPS and so on. We talk frequently about portfolios being relatively simple.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 1, 2024

Anything related to the Permanent Portfolio (portfolio devised by Harry Browne weighting 25% each to stocks, long bonds, cash and gold) or any of the Permanent Portfolio-inspired modern investment products are always fun to look at. I wanted to circle back to the ProShares S&P 500 High Income ETF (ISPY).

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Clever Girl Finance

AUGUST 2, 2022

There are plenty of ways to increase the value of your investments, whether through growth in the stock market or entrepreneurship. First of all, remember that investment returns take time. Typically, you won’t see results super-fast when investing. How to turn 10K into 100K through investing in retirement accounts.

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Mr. Money Mustache

MAY 20, 2022

If you really understand the points above and really feel excited about them, you can drop the fear and stress out of your investing life, which means you will live a life that is both wealthier, and more fun. Instead of investing in a productive asset, these speculators were just assuming the recent momentum would continue.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 8, 2023

Here are some other numbers compared to the S&P 500 and VBAIX which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio. Very simply, each dollar invested gives you $1 of exposure to bonds plus $1 of exposure to managed futures, so there is leverage. It invests 90% in stocks and leverages up to get 60% in fixed income.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 29, 2023

FAIRX is 82% invested in Florida real estate developer St. Here I am talking not just portfolio management but overall lifestyle, habits and choices and yes this does filter into my day job managing investment portfolios. I probably wrote about this one a couple of times back in the first iteration of this blog.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 15, 2022

As a quick reminder, a 67% allocation to 90/60 generally equates to a 100% allocation to a 60/40 portfolio like you might get from Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX). For this post I assembled a less dramatic portfolio more in line with Krom's thinking. The math shows the NTSX/ARBIX/BTAL combo would be down 14.7%

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The Big Picture

JULY 24, 2024

At The Money: Behavior Beats Intelligence (July 24, 2024) We focus most of our investing efforts on information and knowledge. Morgan Housel Finance types tend to focus on attributes like intelligence, math skills and computer programming. In investing, it’s usually the opposite. None of it matters.

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The Better Letter

DECEMBER 15, 2022

Based on the above, nobody should be surprised that 2022 looks like it will be the worst year for the classic 60:40 portfolio since 1937’s -22 percent. The alternative investment space, however defined, is opaquer and generally exists over a much shorter duration. I mean an investment. Good investing is never easy.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 27, 2022

Quite a few years years ago, like maybe 15, I wrote several posts about an idea for portfolio construction from Nassim Taleb where he said he put 90% of his money in T-bills from around the world and then put the remaining 10% in very aggressive holdings with great potential for asymmetric returns. Does it do what it's supposed to?

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Brown Advisory

AUGUST 1, 2019

So it may be surprising to hear that a Roth IRA—a vehicle ostensibly intended for retirement income—can be a powerful mechanism for next-generation wealth transfer. Background Since January 1, 2010, all individuals, regardless of income levels, have been able to convert existing retirement accounts such as traditional IRAs into Roth IRAs.

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Brown Advisory

AUGUST 1, 2019

So it may be surprising to hear that a Roth IRA—a vehicle ostensibly intended for retirement income—can be a powerful mechanism for next-generation wealth transfer. Since January 1, 2010, all individuals, regardless of income levels, have been able to convert existing retirement accounts such as traditional IRAs into Roth IRAs.

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The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2023

He is the Chief Investment Officer of Asset and Wealth Management at Goldman Sachs. He co-chairs a number of the asset management investment committees. I thought this was an absolutely fascinating way to see the world of investment management. Investment banks were not really a known concept in the area where I grew up.

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The Big Picture

JANUARY 24, 2023

They have $37 billion in clients and their own funds, of which they have invested across a variety of disciplines from credit to strategic capital, as well as taking companies private and helping them grow into something more substantial than they’ve been in the past. It was between corporate law and investment banking.

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The Big Picture

JULY 29, 2024

And then I fell in love with technology and product development, moved from there to strategy, then moved from there to investment product development, worked on Schwab’s first ETF offerings, their equity mutual funds, fixed income mutual funds. 00:05:32 [Speaker Changed] Another very substantial custodian. They have different emphasis.

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