Calculated Risk

MARCH 5, 2025

Manufacturing activity exhibited slight to modest increases across a majority of Districts. Contacts in manufacturing, ranging from petrochemical products to office equipment, expressed concerns over the potential impact of looming trade policy changes. Vehicle sales were modestly lower on balance.

Economics 194

Economics Manufacturing Food Transportation 194

Calculated Risk

MARCH 15, 2025

For manufacturing, the February Industrial Production report and the March NY and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, March 17th -- 8:30 AM: Retail sales for February is scheduled to be released. 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a 0.7%

Retail 191

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 191

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 23, 2024

million Total Housing Completions in 2023 including Manufactured Homes; Most Since 2007 Excerpt: Although total housing starts decreased 9.0% Not counting Manufactured homes, there are 1.453 million completions in 2023, up 4.5% Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: 1.54

Manufacturing 240

Manufacturing Numbers 240

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for October will be released. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales. The consensus is for a reading of 3.5, up from -11.9. •

Retail 260

Retail Sales Manufacturing 260

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

percentage point to total IP growth following the earlier resolution of a work stoppage at a major aircraft manufacturer. Manufacturing output declined 0.1 In January, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percent in January, held down by a 5.2 percent decrease in the index for motor vehicles and parts.

Manufacturing 179

Manufacturing 179

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

Manufacturing decreased slightly on net, and a number of Districts said manufacturers were stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs. Construction employment increased slightly, while manufacturing employment was flat. Contacts in several service industries, notably healthcare, continued to see job growth.

Economics 162

Economics Manufacturing Nonprofit Transportation 162

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 1, 2024

Employment declined in manufacturing due to strike activity. From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in October (+12,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent , the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Temporary help services lost jobs.

Manufacturing 306

Manufacturing Government 306

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 22, 2025

For manufacturing, the February Dallas, Kansas City, and Richmond Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, February 24th -- 8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for January. This is a composite index of other data. The consensus is for a 4.5% in November. The consensus is for a 1.8% The consensus is for a 1.2%

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Management 162

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2024

Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 2.2, up from -6.0. At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96

Sales 147

Sales Manufacturing 147

Abnormal Returns

MARCH 2, 2025

owns RV manufacturer Forest River? axios.com) Economy Where manufacturing jobs are increasing. (humbledollar.com) Finance The structured finance industry is back, and is set to be bigger than ever. wsj.com) How carried interest calculations work in practice. cashandcarried.substack.com) Did you know Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A)

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Government Media Economy 162

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

The ISM manufacturing employment index increased to 50.3%, up from 45.4% This would suggest about 15,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. The ADP report indicated 13,000 manufacturing jobs lost in January. ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires).

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Numbers 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 18, 2025

Manufacturing output rose 0.9 The output of manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts increased 0.4 From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) increased 0.7 percent in February after moving up 0.3 percent in January. percent, boosted by a jump of 8.5 The index for mining gained 2.8

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 27, 2025

Also at 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for January. The National Index was up 3.6% YoY in October and is expected to be up about the same in November. At 10:00 AM, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for December 2024

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing Economics Sales 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 19, 2025

Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for March. Thursday: At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 220 thousand last week. The consensus is for a reading of 12.0, down from 18.0.

Sales 147

Sales Manufacturing 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2025

percentage point to total IP growth following the resolution of a work stoppage at a major aircraft manufacturer. Manufacturing output rose 0.6 In December, gains in the output of aircraft and parts contributed 0.2 percent after gaining 0.4 percent in November. The indexes for mining and utilities climbed 1.8 percent and 2.1

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing 147

Advisor Perspectives

MARCH 17, 2025

Manufacturing activity dropped significantly in New York State, according to the Empire State Manufacturing March survey. The diffusion index for General Business Conditions fell 25.7 points to -20.0, the lowest level since January 2024. The latest reading was worse than the forecast of -1.9.

Manufacturing 94

Manufacturing 94

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 4, 2024

Manufacturing was the weakest we've seen since spring. From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 146,000 Jobs in November; Annual Pay was Up 4.8% Private sector employment increased by 146,000 jobs in November and annual pay was up 4.8 Financial services and leisure and hospitality were also soft.”

Financial Services 162

Financial Services Manufacturing Economy 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 25, 2024

For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, May 27th -- All US markets will be closed in observance of Memorial Day. -- Tuesday, May 28th -- 9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for March. 10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May.

Manufacturing 280

Manufacturing Sales Banking Economics 280

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 14, 2024

For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates. -- Monday, September 16th -- 8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of -4.0,

Retail 312

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 312

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 2, 2024

awealthofcommonsense.com) The November ISM manufacturing index remains weak-ish. (hollywoodreporter.com) 'Moana 2' just had the biggest five-day opening in history. sherwood.news) Economy Bubbles often leaving interesting stuff behind. bonddad.blogspot.com) Earlier on Abnormal Returns Adviser links: loving clients' problems.

Communication 162

Communication Manufacturing Media Banking 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 16, 2024

Manufacturing output decreased 0.3 percent; excluding motor vehicles and parts, manufacturing output edged down 0.1 From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production was little changed in April. The index for mining fell 0.6 percent, and the index for utilities rose 2.8

Manufacturing 286

Manufacturing 286

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 30, 2024

Other key indicators include the October Trade Deficit, the November ISM manufacturing index and November vehicle sales. -- Monday, December 2nd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November. The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday. The consensus is for 47.5%, up from 46.5%. The consensus is for 0.2%

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 162

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 Flash US Manufacturing PMI at 47.6 Lower output was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors amid increasingly steep downturns in demand. The fall in backlogs of work was the sharpest in two-and-ahalf years, with manufacturers reporting the steeper decline in work-in-hand.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

Calculated Risk

MARCH 2, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 2, 2025 Monday: At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in January. At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending. All day, Light vehicle sales for February.

Sales 162

Sales Manufacturing Marketing Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 27, 2024

After both the advance durable manufacturing report and the new home sales release from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 1.2 percent on December 24, unchanged from December 20 after rounding. percent to 1.3 percent.

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing Sales Investing Investments 147

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 26, 2025

At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for February. The consensus is for a 1.8% increase in durable goods orders. At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for January. The consensus is for a 1.2% decrease in the index.

Sales 147

Sales Manufacturing 147

Wealth Management

MARCH 16, 2023

With EV manufacturers and their suppliers increasingly opening factories in the U.S., opportunities are growing for both build-to-suit construction and speculative development.

Manufacturing 294

Manufacturing 294

Calculated Risk

APRIL 27, 2024

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. Other key reports include February Case-Shiller house prices, April vehicle sales, and the March trade balance. The FOMC meets this week and no change to policy is expected. 8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for April. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). down from 50.3

Manufacturing 292

Manufacturing Sales Government Numbers 292

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 15, 2023

percent , and manufacturing output rose 0.3 The increase in manufacturing output was more than accounted for by a 7.1 The index for manufacturing excluding motor vehicles and parts decreased 0.2 From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization In November, industrial production increased 0.2 percent.

Manufacturing 275

Manufacturing Accounting 275

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 15, 2023

percent in August , and manufacturing output inched up 0.1 The August reading for manufacturing was held back by a drop of 5 percent in the output of motor vehicles and parts; factory output elsewhere rose 0.6 From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production increased 0.4 percent.

Manufacturing 306

Manufacturing 306

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 20, 2025

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Startup 162

Startup Manufacturing Media Economy 162

Abnormal Returns

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

econbrowser.com) Tariffs or not, some manufacturing will never return to the U.S. (engadget.com) The DOGE website is one big advertisement for X.com. wired.com) Economy Industrial production rose in January. calculatedriskblog.com) Recent inflation surprises, illustrated. abnormalreturns.com) What you missed in our Thursday linkfest.

Advertising 173

Advertising Government Manufacturing Media 173

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 24, 2025

At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for February. At 9:00 AM, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for December. The consensus is for a 4.5% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for December, up from 4.3% in November.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Marketing Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2024

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of December 1, 2024 Monday: • At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for November. The consensus is for 47.5%, up from 46.5%. Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for October. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in spending. • All day, Light vehicle sales for November.

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing Sales Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2023

My current estimate is total completions (single family, multi-family, manufactured homes) will increase in 2023 to around 1.535 million, up from 1.503 million in 2022. However, the mix will change significantly from 2022 with fewer single-family completions and fewer manufactured homes, and more multi-family completions.

Manufacturing 276

Manufacturing 276

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 5, 2024

sportico.com) Manufacturing The U.S. noahpinion.blog) How the manufacturing construction boom is playing out across the country. (frontofficesports.com) How the WWE has doubled earnings over the past five years. johnwallstreet.com) Can new, high profile events bring track into the sports consciousness?

Financial Advising 274

Financial Advising Manufacturing Marketing Marketing 274

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 27, 2024

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of October 27, 2024 Monday: • 10:30 AM ET, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October. This is the last regional Fed survey for October. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 24 and DOW futures are up 134 (fair value). per barrel and Brent at $76.05 per barrel.

Manufacturing 147

Manufacturing Marketing Marketing 147