Mish Talk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

The number of working-age persons people not in the labor force rose by 359,000 in November and is back over 100 million. Manufacturing jobs are still strong, at least as reported. Average weekly hours of manufacturers fell 0.2 I expected that decline in manufacturing hours and expect still more coming up. hour to 34.4

Manufacturing 327

Manufacturing Retirement Numbers Economics 327

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AUGUST 24, 2022

In February 2023, the payroll numbers will be revised up to reflect the final estimate. The number is then "wedged back" to the previous revision (March 2021). Construction was revised up by 62,000 jobs, and manufacturing revised up by 22,000 jobs.

Taxes 359

Taxes Manufacturing Numbers Insurance 359

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AUGUST 5, 2022

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 28,000, combined. Manufacturing added 30 thousand jobs and is now 41 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: July Employment Report: 528 thousand Jobs, 3.5% million jobs.

Numbers 364

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 364

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NOVEMBER 30, 2024

Other key indicators include the October Trade Deficit, the November ISM manufacturing index and November vehicle sales. -- Monday, December 2nd -- 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November. The number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year. The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Government Banking 162

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FEBRUARY 17, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of February 16, 2025 Tuesday: At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for February. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. The consensus is for a reading of -1.0, up from -12.6. At 10:00 AM, The February NAHB homebuilder survey.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Numbers Sales Marketing 162

Mish Talk

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.2 Flash US Manufacturing PMI at 47.6 The PMI numbers are diffusion indexes. Lower output was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors amid increasingly steep downturns in demand. Key Findings Flash US PMI Composite Output Index at 46.3 October: 48.2). 3-month low.

Economy 290

Economy Manufacturing Numbers Sales 290

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SEPTEMBER 14, 2024

For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates. -- Monday, September 16th -- 8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of -4.0,

Retail 312

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 312

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MARCH 16, 2025

Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for March. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in retail sales. The consensus is for a reading of -2.0, down from 5.7. At 10:00 AM, The March NAHB homebuilder survey.

Retail 147

Retail Sales Manufacturing Numbers 147

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 24, 2024

Banking The number of bank branches in the U.S. apolloacademy.com) China has a glut of traditional auto manufacturing plants. bloomberg.com) Economy The housing and manufacturing sectors are both range-bound. peaked in 2012. sherwood.news) Where SVB's business stands as JP Morgan ($JPM) looks to make inroads.

Financial Advising 275

Financial Advising Manufacturing Media Retail 275

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MAY 3, 2024

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was below expectations, and February and March payrolls were revised down by 22,000 combined. Manufacturing employment increased 8 thousand and is now 181 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in April to 4.47

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

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JUNE 7, 2024

The headline jobs number in the May employment report was well above expectations, however March and April payrolls were revised down by 15,000 combined. Manufacturing employment increased 8 thousand and is now 185 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in May to 4.42

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

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APRIL 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations; and January and February payrolls were revised up by 22,000 combined. Manufacturing employment was unchanged and is now 176 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in March to 4.31

Numbers 318

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 318

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JANUARY 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 28,000, combined. Manufacturing added 8 thousand jobs and is now 149 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: December Employment Report: 223 thousand Jobs, 3.5% million jobs.

Retail 363

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

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FEBRUARY 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the January employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 71,000, combined. Manufacturing added 19 thousand jobs and is now 214 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. With revisions: The 4.81 million jobs. million, was little changed in January.

Numbers 363

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 363

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MAY 5, 2023

The headline jobs number in the April employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 149,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 11 thousand jobs and is now 206 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: April Employment Report: 253 thousand Jobs, 3.4%

Numbers 360

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 360

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NOVEMBER 4, 2022

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 29,000, combined. Manufacturing added 32 thousand jobs and is now 137 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The participation rate decreased, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.

Retail 354

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 354

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AUGUST 2, 2024

The headline jobs number in the July employment report was below expectations, and May and June payrolls were revised down by 29,000 combined. Manufacturing employment increased 1 thousand and is now 173 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in July to 4.57

Numbers 319

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 319

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SEPTEMBER 6, 2023

Manufacturing contacts in several Districts also noted that supply chain delays improved, and that they were better able to meet existing orders. New orders were stable or declined in most Districts, and backlogs shortened as demand for manufactured goods waned.

Manufacturing 298

Manufacturing Transportation Retail Sales 298

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JULY 27, 2024

Other key reports include Case-Shiller house prices for May, ISM manufacturing index and July vehicle sales. 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for July. The key report this week is the July employment report. Jobs openings increased in May to 8.14 million from 7.92 million in April. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 49.0,

Manufacturing 295

Manufacturing Sales Government Numbers 295

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APRIL 27, 2024

10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for April. The number of job openings (black) were down 11% year-over-year in February. Other key reports include February Case-Shiller house prices, April vehicle sales, and the March trade balance. The FOMC meets this week and no change to policy is expected. down from 50.3 million from 8.75

Manufacturing 292

Manufacturing Sales Government Numbers 292

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JULY 7, 2023

The headline jobs number in the June employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 7 thousand jobs and is now 204 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 21 thousand jobs in June.

Numbers 315

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 315

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OCTOBER 4, 2024

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and July and August payrolls were revised up by 72,000 combined. Manufacturing employment decreased 7 thousand and is now 137 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: September Employment Report: 254 thousand Jobs, 4.1% million in September.

Numbers 306

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 306

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 9, 2022

American magazine Sports Car International named it number 9 on its list of Top Sports Cars of the 1960s. Only 1,170 coupes were manufactured over six years of production (just 125 Ghibli Spyders were made). The original color is Marrone Colorado, the interior is Senape Connolly leather, powered by a 4.7L

Manufacturing 299

Manufacturing Numbers Sales 299

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AUGUST 4, 2022

. • ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). The ISM® manufacturing employment index decreased in July to 49.9%, up from 47.3% This would suggest about 20,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. last month. last month. .

Manufacturing 243

Manufacturing Numbers 243

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MARCH 10, 2023

The headline jobs number in the February employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 34,000, combined. Manufacturing lost 4 thousand jobs and is now 198 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The participation rate increased, and the unemployment rate increased to 3.6%.

Numbers 316

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 316

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DECEMBER 2, 2022

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined. Manufacturing added 14 thousand jobs and is now 149 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Leisure and hospitality gained 88 thousand jobs in November. million jobs.

Retail 328

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 328

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MAY 2, 2024

. • ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). The ISM® manufacturing employment index increased to 48.6%, up from 47.4% This would suggest about 20,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. the previous month.

Manufacturing 195

Manufacturing Numbers 195

Nerd's Eye View

JULY 18, 2022

Insurance companies and broker-dealers in the business of manufacturing products and hiring advisors to sell them often dominate career fairs and job boards, frequently drawing in graduates of CFP Board-approved education programs.

CFP 246

CFP Recruitment Sales Certification 246

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JANUARY 14, 2023

For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. -- Monday, January 16th -- All US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

Retail 264

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 264

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 9, 2024

(taylorlorenz.substack.com) Housing An alternative to the Case-Shiller house price numbers. optimisticallie.com) Manufacturing is a laggard in this economy. mrzepczynski.blogspot.com) Don't be surprised if Americans start tapping their home equity. bloomberg.com) Economy The economy is on hold as everyone tries to figure it out.

Economy 278

Economy Financial Advising Media Manufacturing 278

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DECEMBER 14, 2024

For manufacturing, November Industrial Production, and the December New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released this week. The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates by 25bp. -- Monday, December 16th -- 8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a 0.1%

Retail 262

Retail Manufacturing Sales Economics 262

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OCTOBER 6, 2023

The headline jobs number in the September employment report was well above expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised up by 119,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 17 thousand jobs and is now 226 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: September Employment Report: 336 thousand Jobs, 3.8%

Numbers 312

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 312

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SEPTEMBER 1, 2023

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was at expectations, however, employment for the previous two months was revised down by 110,000, combined. Manufacturing employment increased 16 thousand jobs and is now 212 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. Earlier: August Employment Report: 187 thousand Jobs, 3.8%

Numbers 311

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 311

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APRIL 4, 2024

. • ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM services are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). The ISM® manufacturing employment index increased in 47.4%, up from 45.9% This would suggest about 35,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. the previous month.

Manufacturing 195

Manufacturing Numbers Economy 195

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JUNE 6, 2024

. • ISM Surveys: Note that the ISM indexes are diffusion indexes based on the number of firms hiring (not the number of hires). The ISM® manufacturing employment index increased to 51.1%, up from 48.6% This would suggest about 15,000 jobs lost in manufacturing. the previous month.

Manufacturing 182

Manufacturing Numbers Marketing Marketing 182

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JANUARY 28, 2023

Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales. The FOMC meets this week, and the FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate. -- Monday, January 30th -- 10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. down from 48.4 in December.

Manufacturing 263

Manufacturing Sales Government Numbers 263

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SEPTEMBER 6, 2024

The headline jobs number in the August employment report was below expectations, and June and July payrolls were revised down by 82,000 combined. Manufacturing employment decreased 24 thousand and is now 147 thousand above the pre-pandemic level. The number of persons working part time for economic reasons increased in August to 4.83

Numbers 277

Numbers Economics Manufacturing 277