Remove Math Remove Numbers Remove Sales
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Wednesday links: narrative fallacies

Abnormal Returns

Strategy On the strange math of stock returns. sherwood.news) The number of existing homes for sales keeps rising. fortunesandfrictions.com) Betting on smart beta has generally not worked out well for investors. morningstar.com) Companies Uber ($UBER) is making progress towards becoming a 'super-app.'

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Saturday links: communities coming together

Abnormal Returns

bakadesuyo.com) Numbers are persuasive up to a point. npr.org) The math on farmed fish doesn't work. economist.com) Drink Wine sales dropped 8% in the past year. (wired.com) What happens when a connected device is no longer supported. arstechnica.com) In praise of taking photos without the help of AI.

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50% Risk-free Annual Returns

The Big Picture

emphasis added) The red flags were there for anyone who could put their greed aside and simply focus on the math. Let’s assume this Ponzi scheme was more akin to MBS – a legitimate investment whose risk was discounted by aggressive sales, but one that eventually went bust. Never confuse risk-free returns with return-free risks.

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TikTokInvestors

The Big Picture

It is a massive Dunning Kruger : exercise in inexperienced but overly confident “ Finfluencers ” reducing complex issues involving money to a slick but misleading sales pitch. I doubt he’s run the real numbers of being invested in the stock market tax deferred with an additional company match.

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My New ETF: 100% of Upside + 0% of Downside

The Big Picture

Second, follow Charlie Munger’s advice and invert the sales pitch: 70% of the upside (you give up 16.62% per year for 2 years) with none of the downside sounds attractive – unless you think about what you are really giving up and getting in exchange. The performance numbers reveal this is a terrible trade-off for the average retail investor.

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10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture

The platform had punched above its weight in pure user numbers thanks to an unrivaled ability to both distribute real-time information and make expertise available. Combine these elements with your own critical faculty — to weed out the usual spam and bs — and it could feel like the only place online that really mattered.

Banking 162
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Chart of the Week: House Prices vs Rents

Discipline Funds

Of course, this data is highly localized and we generally measure “inventory” by the number of units that are actually for sale. And that’s where the math on renting comes into play. We also don’t fully account for the record high number of units currently under construction that are not yet for sale.

Math 136