The Big Picture

OCTOBER 20, 2023

Whether it’s a few decades or a century, the math works the same. Hey, what a very different outcome than suggesting a loss of purchasing power — if you understand money and math, you have actually gained purchasing power. Instead of cherry-picking the S&P 500, what about a simple 60/40 portfolio (e.g.,

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Investing Investments Math Medicine 340

Abnormal Returns

APRIL 3, 2024

Podcasts Barry Ritholtz talks with Liz Ann Sonders about how to rebalance your portfolio. awealthofcommonsense.com) On the math of a 0% line of credit. ritholtz.com) Jesse Cramer talks with Peter Lazaroff about how to hang in there for the long run. realsmartica.com) Better investors make fewer decisions. Rockefeller.

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Math Financial Advisor Retirement Banking 260

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 4, 2024

But suddenly they find themselves sitting on an uncomfortably large percentage of their portfolio in a single name. To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio Let’s bring in Meb Faber He’s the founder and chief investment officer of Cambria. Perhaps they have some founder stock from a startup.

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Taxes Portfolio Accounting Management 130

Abnormal Returns

MAY 14, 2023

morningstar.com) The 60/40 portfolio is flawed, but you need an alternative. wealthmanagement.com) The math behind savings rates and retiring early. financialmechanic.com) Concentrated portfolios come with a lot of psychological stress. (abnormalreturns.com) FutureProof announced the first 50 speakers including the musical acts.

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Math Portfolio Retirement Banking 159

Nerd's Eye View

JUNE 21, 2024

At the same time, they also overwhelmingly recognize the value of financial advisors , not only for increasing their wealth beyond what they could have achieved on their own , but also for helping them feel more prepared and less stressed about their finances!

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Financial Planner Financial Advisor Taxes Math 246

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 27, 2023

24, 2023 _ 1: In particular, why average outperforms over the long run; Sommers credits not making errors (via Charlie Ellis’ “Winning the Loser’s Game”) but the nuance and math are fascinating. I have dozens of examples of traders who made the right call for some of the above for all the wrong reasons. By Jeff Sommer New York Times, Nov.

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Marketing Marketing Math Retirement Planning 304

The Big Picture

MAY 31, 2024

Sherman oversees and administers DoubleLine’s investment management subcommittee; serves as lead portfolio manager for multisector and derivative-based strategies; and is a member of the firm’s executive management and fixed-income asset allocation committees. He is host of the podcast The Sherman Show and a CFA charter holder.

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Asset Allocation Math Portfolio Management Engineering 189

The Big Picture

JUNE 24, 2023

His philanthropy includes sitting on the board of directors of Paul Tudor Jones’ Robin Hood Foundation and Jim Simon’s Math for America. That setup plus the mistaken belief that Portfolio Insurance would offer protection from losses, was the perfect up parallel.

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Investments Investing Recruitment Math 217

The Big Picture

JULY 24, 2024

Morgan Housel Finance types tend to focus on attributes like intelligence, math skills and computer programming. We’re going to discuss how to make sure your behavior is not getting in the way of your portfolio. How you behave with money matters more than what you know about money. He is the author of “The Psychology of Money.”

Math 273

Math Retirement Investing Investments 273

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 26, 2024

First, is the math right based on my numbers? I think it can be a productive portfolio addition betting on the asymmetry which of course argues for starting very small. The above two portfolios are pretty consistent with a lot of the work we do here. How can it solve anyone's problem?

Math 52

Math Portfolio Numbers Taxes 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 21, 2023

First up was a webinar about model portfolios at ETF.com. Outsourcing the work related to actually being an advisor would not feel right to me and I enjoy what I get to do including portfolio construction. I think that when investors hear about model portfolios they sort of think in terms of set and forget.

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Portfolio Asset Allocation Math Management 75

Alpha Architect

DECEMBER 29, 2023

Many risks important for our portfolios are new, hidden, or nuanced in some underappreciated way—and likely to be misunderstood and mispriced in the markets. Other risks can hide in plain sight. In short: we need informed creativity, not calculation. Please read the Alpha Architect disclosures at your convenience.

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Math Risk Management Portfolio Management 110

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 9, 2022

If you do the math, that yields a better long term result in nominal terms and also in risk adjusted terms. Getting that exact result is not going to be easy for too many people but the idea of structuring a portfolio to be less volatile while avoiding interest rate risk is something that someone who is so inclined can do.

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Portfolio Math Clients Management 75

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 17, 2022

barrons.com) Bond math looks a lot different from a year ago, let alone six months. morningstar.com) Just how bad is the drawdown in the 60/40 portfolio this year? Markets T-bill yields are approaching 4%. priceactionlab.com) Apple A look at the new iPhone 14s. daringfireball.net) The Apple ($AAPL) Series 8 Watch is all about health.

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Math Financial Advising Advertising Media 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 18, 2025

A portfolio that goes narrower than an S&P 500 500 or total market fund probably has some exposure to low vol, dividends and the others. And checking in on the GraniteShares YieldBoost SPY ETF (YSPY) that sells put spreads on a levered S&P 500 ETF; Yes, that is a rough start, clearly, but interestingly the math checks out.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Math Portfolio 52

Getting Your Financial Ducks In A Row

OCTOBER 31, 2022

These studies show that, given a choice between an annuity with a monthly income and an investment portfolio structured to provide the same sort of returns over time, if we’re near retirement we choose the annuity seven times out of ten. There’s no shame in admitting that factor – for a lot of us, math can be very tough.

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Math Investments Investing Retirement 113

The Big Picture

MAY 15, 2023

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads: • Ken Griffin’s Hand-Picked Math Prodigy Runs Market-Making Empire : Citadel Securities CEO Peng Zhao left for college at age 14, caught Griffin’s eye early in his career and built systems now mopping up market share. TKer ) • The Debt Ceiling Dispute Raises the Risks for ‘Risk-Free’ U.S.

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Math Insurance Portfolio Management 147

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 3, 2024

There was an article on LinkedIn (via Abnormal Returns) by Victor Haghani that dug into the math working against leveraged ETFs. In a 60/40 portfolio, a 30% weighting to SSO would in theory equal a 60% weight to equities, opening the door to some sort of of capital efficient portfolio even if that just meant sitting in cash.

Math 52

Math Portfolio Retail Clients 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

If any of us had constructed this portfolio and implemented it for ourselves, it would have been a very acceptable result. The portfolio did just fine, it captured most of the upside and avoided the full brunt in 2022's large decline. One thing lacking from the "Endowment ETF Model Portfolio" is any hint of endowment-like results.

Math 52

Math Portfolio Taxes Marketing 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

It's been a while since this sort of thing was relevant for my day job so something could have changed, weeklies didn't exist for example, but if my math is correct then it was way over exposed which would account for last week's decline in the fund price. Please leave a comment if I did the work incorrectly.

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Math Education Management Accounting 105

Integrity Financial Planning

JULY 6, 2022

Make sure your income is coming from a secure source, not the best performing portfolio. Look at the math to understand and believe it. It’s important to have the right strategy in place when it comes to taking out your retirement income.

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Retirement Retirement Planning Math Financial Planning 95

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 22, 2023

And then just a little math, the "guarantee" based on the 50/50 allocation would be 2.5% Portfolio 3 with 65% HEQT and 35% SPHB was down quite a bit less than the S&P 500 last year and the standard deviation is noticeably lower too. Keep it to something broad like a total market fund or a market cap weighted large cap index.

Math 74

Math Portfolio Investing Investments 74

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 1, 2022

Here's a quote I saw attributed to Barry Ritholtz: “The Best Portfolio is probably the one which sacrifices a bit of performance, but helps you sleep at night.” Barry's quote reminded me of another influence on how I try to manage client portfolio volatility and why I use alts (yes, that conversation continues). Cannot be done?

Portfolio 40

Portfolio Math Management Clients 40

Mr. Money Mustache

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

S&P returns (including dividends) since 2019, graph by the excellent portfolio visualizer website. Which makes the landlord business a lot less profitable, and we should expect exactly the same thing as stock investor: lower future profits as a percentage of our portfolio value. Its just basic math.

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Marketing Marketing Sales Portfolio 66

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. Businessweek ) but see With cash earning 5%, why risk money on the stock market?

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Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 14, 2023

She has a really fascinating background, very eclectic, a combination of math and law. You, you get a, a BS in Mathematics and a JD from Boston University Math and Law. It is something, math has always come easy to me since a child. I didn’t get an advanced degree in math. Not the usual combination. What happened?

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Math Management Insurance Assets 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 29, 2024

I've been saying meaningful yield without too much volatility is what investors hope the bond portion of their portfolio will give. The simple 40 year trade for bonds of "number go up" is finished and as a matter of math, can't be repeated. Taking volatility out of a fixed income portfolio is fairly simple.

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Marketing Marketing Math Portfolio 95

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 8, 2023

Barron's had a fun article that looked at some ideas from William Bernstein titled The Trick To A Bullet Proof Portfolio? Based on the title, it would seem to be in the neighborhood of creating an all-weather portfolio which we've looked at in several different forms over the course of my full 19 years of blogging.

Asset Allocation 74

Asset Allocation Math Portfolio Assets 74

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 27, 2022

In my ongoing quest to redefine portfolio construction, I've mentioned labeling asset classes based on their attributes versus just their proper names like growth which could include more than just equities or inflation protected which could include more than just TIPS and so on. We talk frequently about portfolios being relatively simple.

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Portfolio Clients Assets Math 96

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 22, 2024

This blog has pretty much evolved into 100 ways to build a portfolio without bonds. The article devoted a good amount of space to bond market math, focusing on the pain of owning the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) and bond funds in general. If the Fed itself can’t forecast rates, why would your financial advisers think they can?"

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Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Math 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

Simple math, it looks like the carry index has compounded at less than 3%. If you use the fund in the manner that I think they intend, a blow up for the stocks and managed futures ETF would be a setback for a portfolio but not a catastrophe. The red line for T-bills is price only. And why do you think you need the leverage?

Math 52

Math Management Portfolio Taxes 52

The Big Picture

MARCH 20, 2024

But today, data is widely available and it’s a key tool you can use to enhance your portfolio returns. Portfolio management was a lot less evidence-based than it is today. As it turns out, there are ways you can use data to your advantage, even if you’re not a math wizard. market volatility. I’m Barry Ritholtz.

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Investing Investments Portfolio Valuation 162

Discipline Funds

MARCH 28, 2025

We’d have to tax ~85% of imports to cover that, but that would also reduce imports so it’s unrealistic and the basic math doesn’t come close to working. A 60/40 portfolio is a 12 year instrument in my methodology. CR: The govt makes $2.5T from the income tax and the US imports $3T of goods.

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Taxes Government Manufacturing Portfolio 102

Integrity Financial Planning

JANUARY 23, 2023

You might have a generic 60/40 portfolio that you expected to cover the rest of your income needs but that possibly needs updating after recent market activity. 3] So, it’s easy math: the less you work, the less you’ll earn. Regardless, Social Security can provide a helping hand with your income.

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Retirement Math Retirement Planning Planning 89

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 6, 2025

If you will pull an income from an investment portfolio, what could go wrong? If that money is in an IRA, that is going to change your math considerably due to having to withdraw all of that inherited IRA within 10 years. Lousy longer term returns could be a problem as could some sort of mistake.

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Retirement Retirement Planning Insurance Medical 52

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Her job is portfolio and product solutions and that means she could go anywhere in the world and do anything. One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics.

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Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 20, 2023

The way the math works, a 67% allocation to NTSX (Portfolio 2 with 33% in the T-bill ETF) equals 100% in Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for 60/40 and Portfolio 3. Portfolio 1 is 100% in NTSX which in 2022 was down 25.84% versus down 16.85% for Portfolio 2 and 16.87% for Portfolio 3.

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Assets Portfolio Math Management 74