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All of their portfoliomanagers not only are substantial investors in each of their funds, but they do a disclosure year that shows each manager by name and how much money they have invested in their own fund. But there’s always gotta be some element of the valuation really being compelling.
Portfoliomanagement was a lot less evidence-based than it is today. As it turns out, there are ways you can use data to your advantage, even if you’re not a math wizard. Barry Ritholtz : So let’s break that into two halves, starting with valuation. It doesn’t really produce great results for investors.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. Now I do fundamental side research portfoliomanagement, which I just, 00:08:20 [Speaker Changed] So, so you joined GMO, there’s 60 people, 30 years.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. We built a company that was focused on valuation, initially, actually targeting corporate strategic planning departments.
So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. I didn’t know what any of these terms meant. We’ve seen a couple of these events now.
So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. Those have compounded over the centuries and have managed to amass a huge amount of, of capital. And then I was looking for something more applied.
But yes, I was given my own column and by that point, having seen all these star managers come and go, you know, I had become an index fund devotee, and in column after column I banged the drum for index funds to the point where my editors were asking me, Hey, could you write about something else? That’s exactly right.
But it was a tremendous experience because I had started off in bond trading, worked my way into portfoliomanagement and running the bond indexing team for a number of years, and then I got asked to take this responsibility, which was much broader. DAVIS: Where international equities, because of valuations, probably 7% to 7.5%.
And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly. I remember telling myself, why would anyone invest in mutual funds when you can buy an ETF instead? BERRUGA: Yeah.
Even with 75% accuracy we only move from an investable universe where 30% of constituents outperform to now selecting the portfolio from a pool with a 56% win rate. We all know that a 55% hit rate is the top decile across the industry, and the maths above demonstrates why. This is why industry hit rates are so low.
And I was a math nerd as a kid. 00:44:11 [Speaker Changed] Kathy would may have her own valuation, so, but I can’t replicate it myself. Why is there such a spread between US domestic and overseas companies in terms of you’re a value investor in terms of straight up valuation? Cell phone service had stopped.
So, first, I found the book to be quite fascinating, very in depth and you managed to take some of the more technical arcana and make it very understandable. You began as a central bank portfoliomanager in Finland. So, that relationship actually already started when I was a portfoliomanager, right? ILMANEN: Yes.
Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || Boldly flying in front of a stained glass window PortfolioManagement Sick of the ups and downs of the markets? link] Abundant liquidity from the Fed emboldened growth investors to bid prices to unsustainable valuations.
I was a fixed income portfoliomanager and trader, which is a ton of fun. PIMCO out on the West Coast, read the first thing I wrote in the Journal of PortfolioManagement. But plenty of valuation measures, it has no applicability for price-to-sales. Program didn’t feel right. I then got just very lucky.
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. And one of the worst performing factors has been valuation. And I think that’s wrong because valuation does matter.
Which was interesting because I actually started my career at JP Morgan Asset Management in the high yield and investment grade credit research team. And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting. That is not being reflected in valuations from a top down standpoint. And I just learned a tremendous amount.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. It’s just not smart on a math basis to do that. And I just caught the bug. Become options market makers. You learn the technology.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
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