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But suddenly they find themselves sitting on an uncomfortably large percentage of their portfolio in a single name. To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio Let’s bring in Meb Faber He’s the founder and chief investment officer of Cambria. Perhaps they have some founder stock from a startup.
There was an article on LinkedIn (via Abnormal Returns) by Victor Haghani that dug into the math working against leveraged ETFs. As an advisor of retail sized clients, there's no reason to add the complexity of a 2x long S&P 500 ETF even if the idea was not to leverage up.
But today, data is widely available and it’s a key tool you can use to enhance your portfolio returns. Portfolio management was a lot less evidence-based than it is today. As it turns out, there are ways you can use data to your advantage, even if you’re not a math wizard. market volatility. I’m Barry Ritholtz.
Her job is portfolio and product solutions and that means she could go anywhere in the world and do anything. One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics.
And Tom has helped with the introduction of GMO’s first retail product, the quality ETF stock symbol Q-L-T-Y-G-M-O has been institutional since they launched in 1977. This is the first time they’re putting out a product for retail. Jeremy’s never really been a portfolio manager. Just really, really interesting.
I was always good at math, but I really, I just didn’t relate to things that were more esoteric bonds options. Because the idea of syndication is that you make a giant purchase and then you sell it off in smaller units to really more of a retail investor. And I, I think that I kind of triangulated on it.
Simple math is that this person needs to save $23/yr to come up with that additional $350,000. But simple math tells you that adding $5000/yr likely won't cut it. Where we talk about return stacking in portfolio construction, think of this as work stacking. 5000 per for 15 years is $75,000.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. Initially I joined to help them manage their equity portfolio. It was the exact same trade. I buy everything.
And so, with this gave me exposure to everything from investment banking to retail, looking at like checking account campaigns, like how do you get more assets in the door to credit risk. I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature.
MARTIN: I mean, it was incredibly interesting to watch the new retail interest in certain stocks and why they had picked certain stocks. MARTIN: I tend to take the view that having a very balanced portfolio and knowing what you invest in, and investing for the long term is probably 9 times out of 10 the — maybe 9.5
And definitely, their retail market participation is significantly lower than you can see in the U.S. And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly.
Risk parity portfolios are particularly vulnerable when their active weighting algorithms fail to predict shifts in asset correlations." In the same period Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio compounded at 10.89% with a standard deviation of 12.43%. The table/chart goes back to FAPYX' inception.
Few people are in a position to see what’s going on in the world of investing, whether it’s institutional or retail, better than Vanguard CIO. And Greg Davis just does an amazing job. I thought this was a really fascinating conversation. I think you will also. With no further ado, my interview with Vanguard CIO, Greg Davis.
So like a component of it was like the standard derivatives math, right? And so like, you know, I got there and I learned derivatives math, right? It was derivatives math, it was like working with the traders on like risk management. Like, like the, you know, like the accounting standards. Like I was, I was not expecting that.
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Do the math. In retail you’re talking about single digit margins with little room for error. Trading in our main portfolio was not the smartest in the world. Bleeding to Death For the rest of that day, retail was under siege. Well, the street certainly didn’t like that and sent shares down over 8%.
But you know exactly how they’re going to interplay within a portfolio, hugely powerful. You know, it’s not the equity market, and I run some big equity portfolios, you know, different. But, you know, it’s been in a portfolio for a long time. Last year, it’s in our tactical portfolios.
We have institutional clients, we have retail clients, we have, you know, pension funds, we have endowments. And so the last six and a half years, that portfolio has outperformed the s and p by almost 800 basis points annually. So in 22, that portfolio was actually up, and it’s, and it’s long only. Annually, okay.
Because then I knew what the wholesale rate was and the retail rate. Import, export, finance, marketing, wholesale, retail, customer service, security, territory, logistics. BRYANT: So money, unlike math, money is highly emotional. “Yes, I want to do the stocking.” He says “it’s the worst job I got.” RITHOLTZ: Right.
Earning potential: Depending on how quickly you’re able to find new clients and develop a working portfolio, your potential earnings could easily top the $1,000 mark designated on this post. If you are to divide your portfolio with equal allocations to each of the 10 companies, you have an average annual dividend yield of 4.3%.
And I was a math nerd as a kid. If you’ve got a undifferentiated, crappy retailer and you’re saying it’s going to have $5 of free cash flow in five years, and you’ve got Visa, MasterCard, most of the magnificent seven, and you say that’s $5, they’re not the same. You have so much more certainty.
She was a partner and a portfolio manager at Canyon Capital, a firm that runs currently about $25 billion. By ’08 and ’09, look, there were bankruptcies everywhere in every industry from retail to telecom. BARRY RITHOLTZ, HOST, MASTERS IN BUSINESS: This week on the podcast, my extra special guest is Dominique Mielle. MIELLE: Exactly.
Oil prices go up or down, you know, fashion retail goes in and out, unlike for example, selling an ingredient for pharmaceuticals, where they need the ingredient and you’re inspected by the FDA. RITHOLTZ: So it’s different math then I need 100x winner versus 99? And the question is, you know, how high we can build?
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Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || Boldly flying in front of a stained glass window Portfolio Management Sick of the ups and downs of the markets? Jan 08, 2023 Also, the article is wrong when it states that current math pedagogy favors boys over girls.
I’m assuming it’s primarily institutional and not retail. So that’s an active part of portfolio trimming and opt and optimization. The good news is no one event has a big impact on the portfolio. That grocery store, that grocery store anchored retail. Huh, 00:20:35 [Speaker Changed] Absolutely.
RITHOLTZ: Retail just is nothing at all. hey, there’s no retail, order online. I mean, you’re talking about, I don’t, I could do the math, it’s like a 10,000% return in like three weeks. Wait, you’re selling video games in retail shops in malls? And we threw one or two overboard.
Because he was all sure he was a totally isolated math. So, so he’s brilliant at math. He goes to m i t to study, study physics and math. So brilliant enough so that sure, he goes to math camp in the summer and find, kind of finds his tribe. But in math camp, he’s not the best. And the Undoing project.
The academic side of how to build a portfolio, we can argue about the details, right? As an advisor, you could get somebody’s model portfolio, or you could hire some, you know, three CFAs and do it yourself. Some advisor that’s out there can say, “I have generally 1% alpha for the last three years in my model portfolio.”
Not only did he stand up a research shop from a dorm room in college and started selling model portfolios to fund managers, but eventually created a suite of first mutual funds. And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. It’s just not smart on a math basis to do that.
I’d been ranked i i back in the seventies, if you can do the math. Don’t write it down, but they surveyed retailers. Like re like retail for example, or autos, trucking companies, you name it. How do you measure GDP two weeks or three weeks after the quarter ends or retail sales eight days after the month ends.
Matt Eagan has spent his entire career in fixed income from credit analyst to portfolio manager. I don’t, I don’t know what else to say other than there are a few people in the world that understand running a fixed income portfolio on behalf of institutional or retail clients, a as well as Matt Egan does. Matt Eagan.
We looked at everything from retail to nursing homes to hospitals to insurance companies to manufacturers. It’s only later, or at least in the book you described it that way, it’s only later that it’s household brands and retailers and names we know. It’s really attracting a lot of retail dollars.
LINDZON: So first year at ’01, ‘02, you have Apple and they blew out the store model, the retail model, which no one thought. You know, I’m just a retail Yahoo finance kind of guy. So this is the math that I applied. So think about this, do the math. RITHOLTZ: Right. RITHOLTZ: 2004, 2005. LINDZON: I hate CNBC.
It’s sort of funny to see a bunch of Ivy League suits who’ve never run a factory or who’ve never run a railroad or who’ve never run a, a retail shop, come in and say, no, no, you’re doing this all wrong. Retailers get a crack at this giant market for a time. I do the math. That’s right.
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