The Big Picture

JULY 24, 2024

Morgan Housel Finance types tend to focus on attributes like intelligence, math skills and computer programming. We’re going to discuss how to make sure your behavior is not getting in the way of your portfolio. How you behave with money matters more than what you know about money. He is the author of “The Psychology of Money.”

Math 205

Math Retirement Investing Investments 205

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 26, 2024

First, is the math right based on my numbers? I think it can be a productive portfolio addition betting on the asymmetry which of course argues for starting very small. The above two portfolios are pretty consistent with a lot of the work we do here. How can it solve anyone's problem?

Math 52

Math Portfolio Numbers Taxes 52

Darrow Wealth Management

OCTOBER 1, 2022

Is retiring with a mortgage a good idea? Retiring with a mortgage doesn’t typically pose a financial risk, and at times it’s the best financial decision. But paying off a mortgage before retirement has upsides also. Here’s when it may – and may not – make sense to pay off a mortgage before retiring.

Retirement 80

Retirement Taxes Math Wealth Management 80

Getting Your Financial Ducks In A Row

OCTOBER 31, 2022

It has further been estimated that as we approach retirement, this ratio increases to a factor of five times more pain for a loss as opposed to the joy we experience for a gain. There’s no shame in admitting that factor – for a lot of us, math can be very tough.

Math 113

Math Investing Investments Retirement 113

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 19, 2023

Yahoo Finance had kind of a long read recapping an update from Morningstar about safe retirement withdrawal rates. If the 4% treasury portfolio pays out $50,000 today, it will pay the same $50,000 in 2038 with no growth in account value. Part of the math that determines options premiums is the risk free rate of return from T-bills.

Retirement 75

Retirement Accounting Math Healthcare 75

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 17, 2023

change at retirement. Hopefully a mortgage is paid off, hopefully there are no car payments to make and health insurance at 65, if retired, should go down quite a bit on Medicare, especially if income goes way down. Once someone is retired, saving for retirement is one less expense too. 5000 per for 15 years is $75,000.

Retirement 75

Retirement Math Insurance Taxes 75

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 21, 2023

First up was a webinar about model portfolios at ETF.com. Outsourcing the work related to actually being an advisor would not feel right to me and I enjoy what I get to do including portfolio construction. I think that when investors hear about model portfolios they sort of think in terms of set and forget.

Portfolio 75

Portfolio Asset Allocation Math Management 75

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 9, 2022

If you do the math, that yields a better long term result in nominal terms and also in risk adjusted terms. Getting that exact result is not going to be easy for too many people but the idea of structuring a portfolio to be less volatile while avoiding interest rate risk is something that someone who is so inclined can do.

Portfolio 75

Portfolio Math Clients Management 75

Integrity Financial Planning

JANUARY 23, 2023

For most, Social Security provides a solid foundation for retirement income. As you grow older and retirement looms on the horizon, the decisions you make start to have a more crucial impact on the amount of money you receive, so it’s important that you know what to expect.

Retirement 89

Retirement Math Retirement Planning Planning 89

The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2023

So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. I didn’t know what any of these terms meant. And there was a problem with 168 of them at the end of 2008.

Assets 299

Assets Clients Investing Investments 299

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 10, 2024

We've talked just a couple of times about the market becoming increasingly concentrated which just in terms of math means that a diversified strategy will lag for as long as the big names do well. I looked at the Vanguard Target Retirement 2025 (VTTVX) and the Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 (VTHRX).

Retirement 98

Retirement Asset Allocation Math Marketing 98

The Big Picture

DECEMBER 4, 2024

But suddenly they find themselves sitting on an uncomfortably large percentage of their portfolio in a single name. To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio Let’s bring in Meb Faber He’s the founder and chief investment officer of Cambria. Perhaps they have some founder stock from a startup.

Taxes 130

Taxes Portfolio Accounting Management 130

The Big Picture

AUGUST 29, 2023

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads: • Stock Pickers Never Had a Chance Against Hard Math of the Market : In years like this one, when just a few big companies outperform, it’s hard to assemble a winning portfolio. If you’re depending on income to fund your retirement, 5% rates are a blessing.

Insurance 130

Insurance Math Economics Economy 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 3, 2024

I haven't seen too many scenarios where Roth conversions were optimal as most people don't earn more after they retire. Do the math on your particulars like what your various sources of earned income will likely be, how much your RMDs will likely be and so on. How much are you likely to end up with in your retirement accounts?

Numbers 98

Numbers Taxes Retirement Accounting 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

It's been a while since this sort of thing was relevant for my day job so something could have changed, weeklies didn't exist for example, but if my math is correct then it was way over exposed which would account for last week's decline in the fund price. Please leave a comment if I did the work incorrectly.

Math 105

Math Education Management Taxes 105

Clever Girl Finance

JANUARY 29, 2023

This is very important for retirement, and knowing what your target net worth by age should be will help you better understand how to reach your personal financial goals. You will likely want to retire in the next decade, so it's important to save and invest as much as possible while also not being too risky. Rowe Price.

Budgeting 119

Budgeting Retirement Assets Education 119

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 11, 2024

Avoiding long duration bonds was a big theme to my writing (and portfolio construction) for a long time, still is, but then the thought evolved to where I started saying that long duration fixed income has a source of unreliable volatility that makes it very difficult to model it in to a portfolio with any confidence.

Math 98

Math Portfolio Management Taxes 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 12, 2023

The Wall Street Journal had an article about the standard 60/40 portfolio , that is 60% allocated to stocks and 40% allocated to fixed income. My experience is that the typical retired person/couple expects growth in exchange for some volatility from the equity portion of their portfolio, they don't want it from their fixed income sleeve.

Portfolio 75

Portfolio Math Clients Retirement 75

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 29, 2024

I've been saying meaningful yield without too much volatility is what investors hope the bond portion of their portfolio will give. The simple 40 year trade for bonds of "number go up" is finished and as a matter of math, can't be repeated. Taking volatility out of a fixed income portfolio is fairly simple.

Marketing 95

Marketing Marketing Math Portfolio 95

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 22, 2023

And then just a little math, the "guarantee" based on the 50/50 allocation would be 2.5% Portfolio 3 with 65% HEQT and 35% SPHB was down quite a bit less than the S&P 500 last year and the standard deviation is noticeably lower too. Keep it to something broad like a total market fund or a market cap weighted large cap index.

Math 74

Math Portfolio Investing Investments 74

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 1, 2022

Here's a quote I saw attributed to Barry Ritholtz: “The Best Portfolio is probably the one which sacrifices a bit of performance, but helps you sleep at night.” Barry's quote reminded me of another influence on how I try to manage client portfolio volatility and why I use alts (yes, that conversation continues). Cannot be done?

Portfolio 40

Portfolio Math Management Clients 40

The Big Picture

NOVEMBER 14, 2023

She has a really fascinating background, very eclectic, a combination of math and law. You, you get a, a BS in Mathematics and a JD from Boston University Math and Law. It is something, math has always come easy to me since a child. I didn’t get an advanced degree in math. Not the usual combination. What happened?

Math 130

Math Management Insurance Assets 130

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 22, 2024

This blog has pretty much evolved into 100 ways to build a portfolio without bonds. The article devoted a good amount of space to bond market math, focusing on the pain of owning the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) and bond funds in general. If the Fed itself can’t forecast rates, why would your financial advisers think they can?"

Marketing 98

Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Math 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 27, 2022

In my ongoing quest to redefine portfolio construction, I've mentioned labeling asset classes based on their attributes versus just their proper names like growth which could include more than just equities or inflation protected which could include more than just TIPS and so on. We talk frequently about portfolios being relatively simple.

Portfolio 96

Portfolio Clients Assets Math 96

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 8, 2023

Barron's had a fun article that looked at some ideas from William Bernstein titled The Trick To A Bullet Proof Portfolio? Based on the title, it would seem to be in the neighborhood of creating an all-weather portfolio which we've looked at in several different forms over the course of my full 19 years of blogging.

Asset Allocation 74

Asset Allocation Math Portfolio Assets 74

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 7, 2023

The course covers an introduction to personal finance, credit cards, life insurance, health insurance, investment instruments, loans, income tax and planning, budgeting and building a strong portfolio. Also, you will learn how to plan your taxes, credit score importance and how to budget your income to create a portfolio.

Budgeting 59

Budgeting Certification Education Asset Allocation 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JULY 9, 2023

Generally speaking, pensions are less viable than they used to be, the math doesn't work as well. The only pension I am remotely close to is the Arizona Public Safety Personnel Retirement System. The concept of pensions is that they provide a security net to retired workers. Is he right? Is he wrong?

Retirement 66

Retirement Math Management Taxes 66

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 10, 2023

There was a lot of content from various places over the weekend about whether it is time to go back into bonds, what retired investors should do for yield and even whether retirees are better off going 100% into equities. This chart contributes to the logic supporting a 60/40 portfolio. Barron's also noted that 60/40 was up 9.6%

Portfolio 74

Portfolio Math Assets Retirement 74

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

I don't see the diversification benefit which as an ongoing theme forces us to think differently about how to build a 60/40 portfolio. It is important to understand the math though. No portfolio concept can always be best. Any valid idea you come up with for your portfolio will lag at times. That's a year to date chart.

Portfolio 75

Portfolio Math Management Investing 75

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Her job is portfolio and product solutions and that means she could go anywhere in the world and do anything. One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics.

Assets 147

Assets Management Investing Investments 147

Yardley Wealth Management

JULY 20, 2022

Their retirement plan is strong, their kids are independent, and they are debt-free. They’re approaching retirement age, but it’s hard for them to imagine what exactly retirement will look like. We’d look at the asset allocations of their portfolios and whether they’re tax-deferred, tax-exempt, or taxable.

Retirement Planning 52

Retirement Planning Budgeting Retirement Wealth Management 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 20, 2023

The way the math works, a 67% allocation to NTSX (Portfolio 2 with 33% in the T-bill ETF) equals 100% in Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) which is a proxy for 60/40 and Portfolio 3. Portfolio 1 is 100% in NTSX which in 2022 was down 25.84% versus down 16.85% for Portfolio 2 and 16.87% for Portfolio 3.

Assets 74

Assets Portfolio Math Management 74

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

AUGUST 17, 2023

The title tells you the author's conclusion, Why Your Portfolio Should Hold Way More Than 30 Stocks. In my opinion the diversification benefit hits diminishing returns pretty close to 40 individual holdings based on math if nothing else. If a portfolio starts with 40 holdings each with an equal 2.5% Not too many I'd say.

Numbers 75

Numbers Portfolio Math Portfolio Management 75

The Big Picture

AUGUST 20, 2024

00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. Initially I joined to help them manage their equity portfolio. It was the exact same trade. It goes so far.

Assets 173

Assets Management Portfolio Taxes 173

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 24, 2024

That is correct, technically but whatever you're looking for from REITs, or private equity or any of the others, you're not going to see it impact the portfolio as part of an index fund. Mistakes during those types of events are what managing portfolios is all about.

Math 75

Math Portfolio Marketing Marketing 75

Clever Girl Finance

OCTOBER 20, 2022

Retirement accounts. Figuring out how to calculate liquid net worth is as simple as doing a quick math equation: Liquid assets - liabilities = liquid net worth. Don't worry—there is an answer to the question, "What is my liquid net worth" that doesn't involve solving math equations. What doesn't count as liquid assets?

Assets 59

Assets Accounting Math Portfolio 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 1, 2023

A quick excerpt from a post a couple of weeks ago about retirement misconceptions. I would much rather withdraw 10% or more per year from my retirement accounts and do it without taking any principal. Part of the math that determines options premiums is the risk free rate of return from T-bills.

Math 74

Math Retirement Numbers Portfolio 74