Random Roger's Retirement Planning

OCTOBER 26, 2024

First, is the math right based on my numbers? I think it can be a productive portfolio addition betting on the asymmetry which of course argues for starting very small. The above two portfolios are pretty consistent with a lot of the work we do here. How can it solve anyone's problem?

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Math Portfolio Numbers Taxes 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

MARCH 18, 2025

A portfolio that goes narrower than an S&P 500 500 or total market fund probably has some exposure to low vol, dividends and the others. And checking in on the GraniteShares YieldBoost SPY ETF (YSPY) that sells put spreads on a levered S&P 500 ETF; Yes, that is a rough start, clearly, but interestingly the math checks out.

Marketing 52

Marketing Marketing Math Portfolio 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 21, 2023

First up was a webinar about model portfolios at ETF.com. Outsourcing the work related to actually being an advisor would not feel right to me and I enjoy what I get to do including portfolio construction. I think that when investors hear about model portfolios they sort of think in terms of set and forget.

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Portfolio Asset Allocation Math Management 75

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 3, 2024

There was an article on LinkedIn (via Abnormal Returns) by Victor Haghani that dug into the math working against leveraged ETFs. In a 60/40 portfolio, a 30% weighting to SSO would in theory equal a 60% weight to equities, opening the door to some sort of of capital efficient portfolio even if that just meant sitting in cash.

Math 52

Math Portfolio Retail Clients 52

Discipline Funds

MARCH 28, 2025

CR: Tariffs are taxes. Anon: But tariffs can replace the income tax. from the income tax and the US imports $3T of goods. We’d have to tax ~85% of imports to cover that, but that would also reduce imports so it’s unrealistic and the basic math doesn’t come close to working. CR: The govt makes $2.5T

Taxes 101

Taxes Government Manufacturing Portfolio 101

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

If any of us had constructed this portfolio and implemented it for ourselves, it would have been a very acceptable result. The portfolio did just fine, it captured most of the upside and avoided the full brunt in 2022's large decline. One thing lacking from the "Endowment ETF Model Portfolio" is any hint of endowment-like results.

Math 52

Math Portfolio Taxes Marketing 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

NOVEMBER 6, 2023

It's been a while since this sort of thing was relevant for my day job so something could have changed, weeklies didn't exist for example, but if my math is correct then it was way over exposed which would account for last week's decline in the fund price. Please leave a comment if I did the work incorrectly.

Math 105

Math Education Management Accounting 105

The Big Picture

MAY 9, 2023

So how do you then go from tax and audit practice to finance and investing? So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. Very different fields.

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Assets Clients Investments Investing 300

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 11, 2024

Avoiding long duration bonds was a big theme to my writing (and portfolio construction) for a long time, still is, but then the thought evolved to where I started saying that long duration fixed income has a source of unreliable volatility that makes it very difficult to model it in to a portfolio with any confidence.

Math 98

Math Portfolio Management Taxes 98

The Big Picture

JANUARY 21, 2025

You would offer three of their stock picks where they were probably touting stocks they wanted to unload from their portfolio. But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. That’s exactly right.

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Investing Investments Management Retirement 148

Carson Wealth

MARCH 2, 2023

When a portfolio is down significantly, you’ll need to cash out more shares to arrive at the same amount of income, and it can be tough to recover from the loss of those assets. Cleaning up your balance sheet and erasing high-interest debt is essential to avoid putting excess strain on your portfolio.

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Retirement Taxes Accounting Financial Advisor 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 3, 2024

Part of the equation is that he is convinced that tax rates have to go up to pay for out debt and so converting to a Roth now before tax rates do go up will result in people ending up with more after tax dollars versus just going the RMD route at what is now 73 on its way to 75. How much can you take from your portfolio?

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Numbers Taxes Retirement Accounting 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 29, 2024

I've been saying meaningful yield without too much volatility is what investors hope the bond portion of their portfolio will give. The simple 40 year trade for bonds of "number go up" is finished and as a matter of math, can't be repeated. Taking volatility out of a fixed income portfolio is fairly simple.

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Marketing Marketing Math Portfolio 95

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JANUARY 6, 2025

. $6300 in today's dollars goes a long way for us, that's quite a bit more than our fixed monthly expenses but might be about equal to regular monthly expenses plus once or twice a year type expenses like property tax, home owners insurance and so on. If you will pull an income from an investment portfolio, what could go wrong?

Retirement 52

Retirement Retirement Planning Insurance Medical 52

Darrow Wealth Management

OCTOBER 1, 2022

On the flip side, not having a mortgage in retirement can be beneficial if it reduces overall lifestyle costs and how much you’ll need to draw from your portfolio in retirement. However, if the goal is to pay off a mortgage before retirement to spend would-be mortgage payments on other things during retirement, the math may not work out.

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Retirement Taxes Math CFP 96

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

APRIL 22, 2024

This blog has pretty much evolved into 100 ways to build a portfolio without bonds. The article devoted a good amount of space to bond market math, focusing on the pain of owning the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT) and bond funds in general. If the Fed itself can’t forecast rates, why would your financial advisers think they can?"

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Marketing Marketing Financial Advising Math 98

Mr. Money Mustache

FEBRUARY 25, 2025

S&P returns (including dividends) since 2019, graph by the excellent portfolio visualizer website. Which makes the landlord business a lot less profitable, and we should expect exactly the same thing as stock investor: lower future profits as a percentage of our portfolio value. Its just basic math.

Marketing 66

Marketing Marketing Sales Portfolio 66

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

Simple math, it looks like the carry index has compounded at less than 3%. If you use the fund in the manner that I think they intend, a blow up for the stocks and managed futures ETF would be a setback for a portfolio but not a catastrophe. The red line for T-bills is price only. And why do you think you need the leverage?

Math 52

Math Management Portfolio Taxes 52

The Big Picture

AUGUST 20, 2024

00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. Initially I joined to help them manage their equity portfolio. It was the exact same trade.

Assets 174

Assets Management Portfolio Marketing 174

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

JUNE 10, 2024

We've talked just a couple of times about the market becoming increasingly concentrated which just in terms of math means that a diversified strategy will lag for as long as the big names do well. In the period available to study SPXE, there has been no difference in returns, volatility or portfolio stats.

Retirement 98

Retirement Asset Allocation Math Marketing 98

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

I don't see the diversification benefit which as an ongoing theme forces us to think differently about how to build a 60/40 portfolio. It is important to understand the math though. No portfolio concept can always be best. Any valid idea you come up with for your portfolio will lag at times. That's a year to date chart.

Portfolio 75

Portfolio Math Management Investments 75

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. there’s a big focus on how do we optimize for tax efficiency, too. It’s different wealth regimes, it’s different tax regimes. RITHOLTZ: Applied Mathematics, Quants, those guys, yeah.

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Clients Wealth Management Banking Investments 300

The Big Picture

AUGUST 8, 2022

ANAT ADMATI, PROFESSOR OF FIANCE AND ECONOMICS, STANFORD GRADUATE SCHOOL OF BUSINESS: So, my journey starts where I took a lot of math. I was good in math and I love the math. So, I was kind of, in my romantic mind when I was in my early 20s, I was going to take but not give back to math, that kind of thing. ADMATI: Yes.

Banking 205

Banking Government Insurance Taxes 205

Trade Brains

DECEMBER 7, 2023

The course covers an introduction to personal finance, credit cards, life insurance, health insurance, investment instruments, loans, income tax and planning, budgeting and building a strong portfolio. Also, you will learn how to plan your taxes, credit score importance and how to budget your income to create a portfolio.

Budgeting 59

Budgeting Certification Education Asset Allocation 59

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

AUGUST 1, 2024

We regularly look at capital efficiency and its potential uses in portfolio construction. Consider the following two portfolios. In terms of risk weighting or volatility weighting, a smaller allocation to semiconductors could deliver the same benefit to a portfolio as a larger weighting to broad tech.

Math 52

Math Portfolio Accounting Taxes 52

The Big Picture

SEPTEMBER 19, 2023

Her job is portfolio and product solutions and that means she could go anywhere in the world and do anything. One, one is true and I’ve always said is that I wanted people to stop, ask if I could doing math. And no one asked me if I can do math anymore with a degree from Booth, particularly in econometrics and statistics.

Assets 148

Assets Management Investments Investing 148

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 17, 2023

These items for us include things like propane delivery (we could pay monthly), property tax and so on. Simple math is that this person needs to save $23/yr to come up with that additional $350,000. But simple math tells you that adding $5000/yr likely won't cut it. BTW, I mean that literally, it is all on a spreadsheet.

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Retirement Math Insurance Accounting 75

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

FEBRUARY 24, 2024

That is correct, technically but whatever you're looking for from REITs, or private equity or any of the others, you're not going to see it impact the portfolio as part of an index fund. Mistakes during those types of events are what managing portfolios is all about.

Math 75

Math Portfolio Marketing Marketing 75

The Big Picture

FEBRUARY 6, 2024

You wouldn’t be surprised to learn the tax consequences of owning a mutual fund is a part of it. If you’re at all interested in focused portfolios, the concept of quality as a sub-sector under value and just how you build a portfolio and a track record, that’s tough to beat. Really fascinating guy.

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Valuation Investments Investing Assets 130

Darrow Wealth Management

MAY 22, 2023

Again just using simple math, this presumes the par value will roll over each month and reinvest at the same rate to get to the annual yield. Cash vs stocks: growth of $1M With an average annualized return under 1%, the cash portfolio only gains $92,000 over a decade. Compare that to the stated yield of 5.6% 467% a month.

Investments 102

Investments Investing Accounting Wealth Management 102

Zajac Group

FEBRUARY 10, 2025

If you dig even deeper, you may also think about tax implications, including the alternative minimum tax and qualified holding periods. But the basics of equity compensation and tax aside, theres something else you might want to be mindful of something that is a bit more difficult to define or quantify.

Taxes 52

Taxes Risk Tolerance Portfolio Investments 52

Brown Advisory

MAY 3, 2018

We try to remind them that rising rates, despite their inevitable short-term effect on fixed-rate bond prices, do not necessarily mean long-term declines for bond portfolios generally or for municipal bond portfolios specifically. MUNICIPALS AND RISING RATES Simple math dictates that when yields rise, fixed-rate bond prices fall.

Taxes 52

Taxes Portfolio Valuation Clients 52

Brown Advisory

MAY 3, 2018

We try to remind them that rising rates, despite their inevitable short-term effect on fixed-rate bond prices, do not necessarily mean long-term declines for bond portfolios generally or for municipal bond portfolios specifically. Simple math dictates that when yields rise, fixed-rate bond prices fall.

Taxes 52

Taxes Portfolio Valuation Clients 52

Clever Girl Finance

JANUARY 29, 2023

Your assets include everything from the cash in your bank accounts to the value of your stock portfolios and the market value of anything tangible that you own such as a house or a car. Any medical debt, personal loans, or back taxes are also considered liabilities. Subtract your liabilities from your assets to get your net worth.

Budgeting 119

Budgeting Retirement Assets Education 119

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 1, 2019

Indeed, a Roth conversion has the potential to generate greater wealth than a traditional IRA during an individual’s or couple’s lifetime, and it can play a meaningful role in providing tax advantages to heirs throughout their lifetime as well. RMDs from a traditional IRA are taxed as ordinary income.

Planning 52

Planning Distribution Taxes Accounting 52

Brown Advisory

AUGUST 1, 2019

Indeed, a Roth conversion has the potential to generate greater wealth than a traditional IRA during an individual’s or couple’s lifetime, and it can play a meaningful role in providing tax advantages to heirs throughout their lifetime as well. RMDs from a traditional IRA are taxed as ordinary income.

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Planning Distribution Taxes Accounting 52

Random Roger's Retirement Planning

DECEMBER 11, 2024

If at the start of the year, someone put 100% into the Vanguard Balanced Index Fund (VBAIX) as a proxy for a 60/40 portfolio, then to employ a portable alpha strategy, they could use leverage to add something to hopefully make it additive to returns. So adding a potential alpha source on top of beta (the basic building blocks).

Portfolio 52

Portfolio Management Math Taxes 52