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Economic Innumeracy : Some individuals experience math anxiety, but it only takes a bit of insight to navigate the many ways numbers can mislead us. We evolved in an arithmetic world, so we are unprepared for the exponential math of finance. Cognitive Deficits : You’re human unfortunately, that hurts your portfolio.
Top clicks this week How Morgan Housel invests his portfolio. institutionalinvestor.com) Putting a valuation on Instacart ($CART). aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com) How to make the math behind home ownership work (or not). etf.com) The hardest thing about being an investor is deciding what to focus on. morningstar.com)
So along those lines, there are some venture firms that don’t really seem to care a lot about valuations and others seem to focus on a little bit. Is valuation significant, or is it, hey, we’re going to make 100 investments and if two or three workout, the valuations are irrelevant? How do you fall in that spectrum?
So I took it upon myself to go off and took a course in bond math, took another course in derivatives and realized the underlying fundamental concepts were barely, I mean, it wasn’t even high school math in most cases. I didn’t know what any of these terms meant. And there was a problem with 168 of them at the end of 2008.
But today, data is widely available and it’s a key tool you can use to enhance your portfolio returns. Portfolio management was a lot less evidence-based than it is today. As it turns out, there are ways you can use data to your advantage, even if you’re not a math wizard. market volatility. I’m Barry Ritholtz.
S&P returns (including dividends) since 2019, graph by the excellent portfolio visualizer website. Which makes the landlord business a lot less profitable, and we should expect exactly the same thing as stock investor: lower future profits as a percentage of our portfolio value. Its just basic math.
We've heard about the death of the traditional 60/40 portfolio for a few years now. With the benefit of hindsight, and some valuation expansion, it appears it was buried alive. This boring, two holding portfolio (Barclay's Aggregate Bond Index, S&P 500, annual rebalance) has had positive returns for nine straight years. $1
All of their portfolio managers not only are substantial investors in each of their funds, but they do a disclosure year that shows each manager by name and how much money they have invested in their own fund. So we really think that it creates alignment to have our portfolio managers meaningfully owning shares of the funds that they manage.
If you’re at all interested in focused portfolios, the concept of quality as a sub-sector under value and just how you build a portfolio and a track record, that’s tough to beat. Dick Mayo was a traditional, I’d say portfolio, strong portfolio manager focused on US stocks. So I was at Harvard.
00:03:14 [Mike Greene] So that was actually an outgrowth from my experience coming out of Wharton and you mentioned the, the, you know, the transition of people who tended to be skilled at math or physics into finance. We built a company that was focused on valuation, initially, actually targeting corporate strategic planning departments.
You would offer three of their stock picks where they were probably touting stocks they wanted to unload from their portfolio. But the numbers you can’t argue with, I mean, we all know that the brutal math of investing before costs investors collectively will earn the market return after costs. That’s exactly right.
So I came down, met with our head of the portfolio review department, which oversees our external managers, met with our head of brokerage, and then met with the head of bind indexing, who was Ken Volpert at the time. And she was like, “You should come down and talk to some people at Vanguard.”
He has a very interesting approach to thinking about market valuations and strategies and when to deploy capital, when to go with the crowd, when to lean against the crowd, and has amassed and excellent track record. Second part of our framework is valuation fundamental work. Well, that means valuations are probably too high.
Math Matters. I did okay in school and was educated on many different topics, including the basic principle that math matters. With that said, I am always quick to point out that diversification in a portfolio is important (i.e., Source: Calafia Beach Pundit. Source: Edward Yardeni.
We try to remind them that rising rates, despite their inevitable short-term effect on fixed-rate bond prices, do not necessarily mean long-term declines for bond portfolios generally or for municipal bond portfolios specifically. MUNICIPALS AND RISING RATES Simple math dictates that when yields rise, fixed-rate bond prices fall.
We try to remind them that rising rates, despite their inevitable short-term effect on fixed-rate bond prices, do not necessarily mean long-term declines for bond portfolios generally or for municipal bond portfolios specifically. Simple math dictates that when yields rise, fixed-rate bond prices fall.
So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. It’s just math stick to it over long periods of time. Then the volatility and, and the valuation makes an enormous difference.
One of our colleagues, Ken Stuzin, likens portfolio construction to Darwinian Investing – it is about survival of the fittest. In a concentrated portfolio, it is the losers that kill you. What sort of hit rate should we then expect within their portfolio? 5 As Table 2 below highlights, this team appears to be seriously good!
We discount each year at our 10% minimum weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and some infinite series maths gives us the basis for some rough approximations 2. Today the Global Leaders portfolio cash flow duration in real terms is in the 15 to 17-year range using this calculation. DCFs are very dangerous if not used thoughtfully.
I’m good at math and science and you know, I always had an idea what go into business, but I felt that electrical engineering would be a good foundation. You know, I, it always, I I see different numbers all the time, so it’s always kinda like, who’s math if you will? 00:02:16 [Speaker Changed] Me too.
And I did the math, and I think at that point in time, roughly speaking, assets in ETS were roughly just 10 percent, 12 percent of assets in mutual funds and I was pretty convinced that that number was to increase significantly. BERRUGA: So many of our clients were struggling to find alternative sources of income for their portfolios.
But you know exactly how they’re going to interplay within a portfolio, hugely powerful. You know, it’s not the equity market, and I run some big equity portfolios, you know, different. But, you know, it’s been in a portfolio for a long time. Last year, it’s in our tactical portfolios.
In such a case, one could reverse the taxes that one had paid based on a much higher account valuation, and re-establish the account as a traditional IRA once again. Moving to a different state, with potentially very different tax treatment for retirement assets, may change the math governing how the decision plays out over time.
In such a case, one could reverse the taxes that one had paid based on a much higher account valuation, and re-establish the account as a traditional IRA once again. Moving to a different state, with potentially very different tax treatment for retirement assets, may change the math governing how the decision plays out over time.
They use several valuation metrics to know more about the company. And when used for ROE, as per the basic rule of math, if the denominator decreases, the fraction as whole increases i.e, The product portfolio includes dominant brands such as Pampers, Gillette, Whisper, Old Spice, Head & Shoulder, Ariel, etc. higher ROE.
It’s fun math – a 20% drop in prices means you get 25% more shares for your dollar, and a 50% drop means twice as many , or 100% more shares per dollar invested.). If you retire just BEFORE a big stock market crash, your first few months or years will drain your portfolio a bit more than you expected, until stock prices recover.
That’s a really easy portfolio to create. It allows you to understand, generally speaking, what is a reasonable beta for that whole portfolio. By the time I got there in ’92, they had a great venture portfolio and almost nobody else even understood what venture capital was. That allows you to do two things.
I got the sense that, so Churnin takes 51% for a fairly modest valuation, 10 or $15 million. That, that gives Barstool a half a billion dollar valuation. 00:40:26 [Speaker Changed] They, they know, they know math, they know math. Nobody cares about your portfolio. And that was really the end of that.
And I was a math nerd as a kid. 00:44:11 [Speaker Changed] Kathy would may have her own valuation, so, but I can’t replicate it myself. Why is there such a spread between US domestic and overseas companies in terms of you’re a value investor in terms of straight up valuation? Like I stopped watching the winter years.
The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Antti Ilmanen, Co-Head, Portfolio Solutions, AQR , is below. BARRY RITHOLTZ; HOST; MASTERS IN BUSINESS: This week on the podcast, I have an extra special guest, Antti Ilmanen is AQR’s Co-head of the Portfolio Solutions Group. CO-HEAD, AQR’S PORTFOLIO SOLUTIONS GROUP: Thanks, Barry.
Picture Credit: David Merkel, with an assist from the YouImagine AI image generator || Boldly flying in front of a stained glass window Portfolio Management Sick of the ups and downs of the markets? link] Abundant liquidity from the Fed emboldened growth investors to bid prices to unsustainable valuations. Can They Take Over $GBTC?
You’re accidentally waiting into yet another quant controversy, whether you need both these characteristics in every stock, or whether you can have some stocks that are great on one and simply average on the other and the portfolio comes out. I was a fixed income portfolio manager and trader, which is a ton of fun.
So that’s an active part of portfolio trimming and opt and optimization. The good news is no one event has a big impact on the portfolio. And I was always good at math and, and I had been writing code since I was in the sixth grade. So we’re cleaning those homes back up and selling ’em back to the consumers.
Not only did he stand up a research shop from a dorm room in college and started selling model portfolios to fund managers, but eventually created a suite of first mutual funds. And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. It’s just not smart on a math basis to do that.
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. And one of the worst performing factors has been valuation. And I think that’s wrong because valuation does matter.
And I did a lot of options math, which I thought was interesting. We do have a limit on what percent of the portfolio could be in what’s classified as frontier. 00:27:00 [Speaker Changed] So we think the opportunity in China today is meaningful largest country weight in our portfolio. 00:21:50 [Speaker Changed] Exactly.
And I said, Paul, I don’t know anything about managing a public portfolio, but the deal we made with each other. So we repositioned our portfolio at the end of 22, recognizing that there had been too many dollars that went into safety trades. It was about $170 million valuation. So here’s the math, Barry.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
Literally the first check-in to Robinhood, which went public in 2021 at about a $34 billion valuation. RITHOLTZ: He was the first (inaudible) in round B at the higher valuation. Is it about the valuation? Back then I was Wallstrip was like a 400K valuation. RITHOLTZ: Valuation didn’t make much of a difference.
00:24:49 [Speaker Changed] So let’s talk a little bit about valuation in the public markets. Does that valuation difference in the public markets extend to private markets as well? Does that valuation difference in the public markets extend to private markets as well? Hence the valuation gap.
RITHOLTZ: So here’s the question about 2020 and we could talk a little bit about the pandemic, when you have an event from outside the market, sort of feels less like the dot-coms and the valuation issue, and more like the meteor that killed the dinosaurs, it’s totally outside of the system. SIEGEL: Right. SIEGEL: Yeah.
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