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Chimp-Throwing Darts: Problems with Expert’s Future Predictions

Risk Management Guru

This is quite important in the risk discipline as we spend our lives trying to predict the future to react to obstacles before they have a chance to derail our pursuit of objectives. The post Chimp-Throwing Darts: Problems with Expert’s Future Predictions appeared first on Risk Management Guru. Wrapping Up.

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Transcript: Linda Gibson, CEO PGIM Quantitative Solutions

The Big Picture

She has run a number of firms and a number of divisions at large firms and traced a career arc that’s just very unusual compared to the typical person in finance. Eventually leading her to a point where she’s managing quants, running about a hundred billion dollars in assets. What do they say?

Math 130
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Transcript: Ilana Weinstein

The Big Picture

.” It’s really helpful to have had five other meetings with people who sit at analogous funds that had losses that were just as big, and in fact, they may have contributed to those losses more and be able to tell him, first off, your fund, just by my math, has a $250 million management fee. These are big numbers.

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Transcript: Armen Panossian

The Big Picture

Ritholtz ] 00:09:37 I recall reading, and I know you can’t say this, but I recall reading that fund return something like 19% a year, some just astounding number. Crazy number. And I think my employers appreciated it because I wasn’t trying to, you know, be a portfolio manager before my time. Some, some, yeah.

Banking 130
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Transcript: Bill Browder

The Big Picture

And I was kind of intrigued and so I said, can we discuss it, and he laid it out on a conference table and I said, what’s this number? And then I said, what’s this number down here, and he said, this is last year’s earnings. And that number was $160 million. BROWDER: I just gone the risk management committee.

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Transcript: Peter Atwater

The Big Picture

And, and if we’re gonna be objective and put some numbers on it, as much as we all would prefer lower rates, we’ve had 18, 19 months of rising rates. trillion a crazy number. But food, medicine, rent. There are a number of venture hubs all over the country. Barry Ritholtz: 00:14:20 [Speaker Changed] Right.

Banking 258