Calculated Risk

APRIL 14, 2024

Weekend: • Schedule for Week of April 14, 2024 Monday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for March is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. The consensus is for a 0.3% The consensus is for a reading of -9.0, up from -20.9. •

Retail 173

Retail Sales Manufacturing Numbers 173

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 23,000, combined. Seasonal Retail Hiring Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. million jobs.

Retail 328

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 328

Calculated Risk

JULY 15, 2024

30 year fixed 6.81% ] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for no change in retail sales. • Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. At 10:00 AM, The July NAHB homebuilder survey.

Retail 147

Retail Sales Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 14, 2024

Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for April is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. . • At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for April from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI (up 3.4% YoY), and a 0.3%

Retail 162

Retail Sales Manufacturing Numbers 162

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 3, 2023

The headline jobs number in the October employment report was below expectations, and employment for the previous two months was revised down by 101,000, combined. Seasonal Retail Hiring Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. million jobs.

Retail 333

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 333

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2023

At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released. decrease in retail sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. • We re-entered that same sideways range after last week's CPI (3.42-3.62 The consensus is for a 0.8% The consensus is for a 0.1%

Retail 195

Retail Sales Banking Numbers 195

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 14, 2024

Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 0.3% up from -6.6.

Retail 162

Retail Sales Manufacturing Numbers 162

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 8, 2023

The headline jobs number in the November employment report was at expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 35,000, combined. Seasonal Retail Hiring Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. million jobs.

Retail 317

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 317

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 14, 2024

The key reports this week are August Retail Sales, Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. up from -4.7. -- Tuesday, September 17th -- 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for August will be released. increase in retail sales. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. The consensus is for a reading of -4.0, The consensus is for a 0.2%

Retail 312

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 312

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 16, 2024

30 year fixed 6.72% ] emphasis added Tuesday: At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for November will be released. increase in retail sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Some of the recent rise in rates reflects those trades. [ The consensus is for a 0.5%

Retail 147

Retail Sales Numbers Economics 147

Abnormal Returns

AUGUST 6, 2024

Retail Using LLMs to identify retail trader strategies. blogs.cfainstitute.org) How the number of firms in an industry affects idiosyncratic volatility. papers.ssrn.com) A look at the value, or lack thereof, of WallStreetBets stock picks. alphaarchitect.com) Analysts Why are all-start investment analysts influential?

Retail 278

Retail Accounting Taxes Numbers 278

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. The consensus is for a increase to 215 thousand from 201 thousand last week. The consensus is for a 0.5%

Retail 147

Retail Sales Manufacturing Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 16, 2024

Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for September will be released. increase in retail sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. The consensus is for a 0.2% The consensus is for a 0.1%

Retail 147

Retail Sales Manufacturing Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 5, 2024

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was above expectations, however employment for the previous two months was revised down by 71,000, combined. Unemployment Rate Seasonal Retail Hiring Typically, retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November.

Retail 302

Retail Numbers Economics Manufacturing 302

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 22, 2024

collabfund.com) No matter how you spin the numbers, day trading is a losing proposition. Hedge funds or retail traders? Top clicks this week on Abnormal Returns Ted Lamade, "Is increased complexity the path to better performance, or would investors be better off if they simply removed a few things?" monevator.com)

Retail 303

Retail Numbers Assets Marketing 303

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 15, 2022

At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for October will be released. increase in retail sales. • Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. •

Retail 147

Retail Sales Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 16, 2023

30 year fixed 7.80% ] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for September will be released. increase in retail sales. • Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. In other words, the average lender is now very close to the same rates seen on Friday, October 6th. [

Retail 147

Retail Sales Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 15, 2023

30 year fixed 6.67% ] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for April is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. • Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. The consensus is for 0.6% The consensus is for a 0.1% The consensus is for a 0.1%

Retail 147

Retail Sales Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 14, 2023

At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for February is scheduled to be released. decrease in retail sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. •

Retail 147

Retail Sales Manufacturing Numbers 147

The Big Picture

AUGUST 1, 2022

I searched for the exact product number “CR2450 Lithium” and bought the first result, a Duracell. I suspect Amazon algorithms will eventually figure this out, but meanwhile, it reveals that advertiser dollars and not consumers are the retail giant’s newest priority. But it wasn’t the 2450, it was a paid placement.

Advertising 361

Advertising Retail Electronics Insurance 361

Wealth Management

NOVEMBER 29, 2022

Retailers discounted generously on Black Friday and Cyber Monday this year in an effort to clear excess inventory and lure consumers who are increasingly strained by inflation. Those efforts drove foot traffic up.

Numbers 162

Numbers Retail 162

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 14, 2023

At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for January is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Wednesday: • At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. •

Retail 147

Retail Sales Manufacturing Numbers 147

Abnormal Returns

SEPTEMBER 8, 2023

awealthofcommonsense.com) Retailing Why retail workers are quitting in record numbers. wsj.com) A record number of apartments are under construction. (morningstar.com) What investors get wrong about the 'Yale Model.' capitalallocators.com) How much should a fund manager hold in their own strategy?

Financial Advising 278

Financial Advising Retail Numbers Media 278

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 16, 2024

At 8:30 AM, Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. • Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. • They're currently still well under 7%, meaning that a vast majority of the improvement has been retained despite the modest erosion. [

Retail 147

Retail Sales Banking Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 15, 2025

Manufacturing decreased slightly on net, and a number of Districts said manufacturers were stockpiling inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs. Contacts in most Districts reported modest increases in selling prices, though there were instances of flat or decreasing prices as well, particularly in the retail and manufacturing sectors.

Economics 162

Economics Manufacturing Nonprofit Transportation 162

Wealth Management

MARCH 13, 2023

A rising number of investment platforms, asset managers and sponsors are tapping into retail investor appetite for private real estate assets.

Investing 246

Investing Investments Retail Assets 246

Calculated Risk

JULY 17, 2023

30 year fixed 6.90% ] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for June is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. • Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. In fact, the average lender is still roughly a quarter of percent lower versus July 6/7. [

Retail 130

Retail Sales Numbers 130

Wealth Management

NOVEMBER 21, 2022

The number of pro bono legal clinics for retail investors harmed by bad investment advice has fallen dramatically over the past decade, leaving many small-dollar claimants to face arbitration panels alone or, more often, do nothing at all.

Retail 246

Retail Numbers Investments Investing 246

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 14, 2023

30 year fixed 7.24% ] emphasis added Tuesday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. The consensus is for 0.4% The consensus is for a reading of -0.7, down from 1.1. • down from 1.1. •

Retail 130

Retail Sales Manufacturing Numbers 130

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 14, 2024

Also at 8:30 AM, Retail sales for January is scheduled to be released. decrease in retail sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. Thursday: • At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a 0.1% up from -43.7.

Retail 147

Retail Sales Manufacturing Numbers 147

Abnormal Returns

DECEMBER 11, 2024

on.ft.com) Alternatives The number of hedge fund startups is dwindling. abnormalreturns.com) Research links: retail order flow. (on.ft.com) Memecoin pump-and-dumps have become normalized. defector.com) The celebrity memecoin playbook is now well developed. sherwood.news) Who is going to pay for crypto-enabled consumer fraud?

Startup 162

Startup Retail Media Economy 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 14, 2023

The key reports this week are December retail sales, housing starts and existing home sales. 8:30 AM: Retail sales for December is scheduled to be released. decrease in retail sales. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail 264

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 264

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 2, 2022

Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing. However, as of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.044 million above pre-pandemic levels. From the BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November , and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7

Transportation 363

Transportation Retail Government Numbers 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 14, 2024

The key economic reports this week are Retail Sales, Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales, the 3rd estimate of Q3 GDP, and November Personal income and outlays. down from 31.2. -- Tuesday, December 17th -- 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for November will be released. increase in retail sales. This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 262

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 262

Calculated Risk

JULY 7, 2023

Intermodal’s decline is a function of a number of factors, including reduced consumer spending on goods, sharply lower port activity, a lack of inventory growth at retailers, and lower truck rates that are making all-truck movements more price competitive vis-à-vis rail intermodal movements. Volume was 6.11

Retail 357

Retail Numbers 357

Calculated Risk

AUGUST 13, 2022

The key reports this week are July Housing Starts, Existing Home Sales and Retail sales. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. -- Tuesday, Aug 16th -- 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for July. 8:30 AM: Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales.

Retail 244

Retail Manufacturing Sales Food 244

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 7, 2023

Retail Does social media use increase stock market participation? caia.org) How the number of funds a manger handles affects performance. papers.ssrn.com) Why do individual investors converge on the same stocks? papers.ssrn.com) Companies What is organizational capital and how does it affect returns? papers.ssrn.com)

Retail 263

Retail Media Numbers Portfolio 263