The Reformed Broker

NOVEMBER 25, 2022

Especially if we’re referring to the past performance of a particular investment strategy, portfolio manager, mutual fund or individual stock. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Of course it isn’t. Things change. But past performance of asset classes should be well understood.

Portfolio Management 258

Portfolio Management Portfolio Assets Management 258

Nerd's Eye View

FEBRUARY 1, 2023

Financial advisors who pay third parties to solicit or refer prospective clients to generate new business have historically been subject to the SEC’s Cash Solicitation Rule.

Advertising 241

Advertising Compliance Marketing Marketing 241

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 1, 2023

With the end of the UAW and SAG-AFTRA strikes, 41,300 strikers returned to work for the November reference period. Note: The reference period usually contains the 12th of the month, however there are exceptions, and the reference period for November 2023 was the 5th through the 11th.

195

195

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 2, 2023

ADP chief economist Nela Richardson noted: "In January, we saw the impact of weather-related disruptions on employment during our reference week. COVID: As far as the pandemic, the number of weekly cases during the reference week in January was around 332,000 , down from 458,000 in December.

Numbers 230

Numbers Manufacturing Education 230

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 28, 2023

Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down (refer to “Updates to GDP”). The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment.

Economics 312

Economics Government Accounting Investing 312

Nerd's Eye View

APRIL 17, 2023

Which is why many advisors seek to leverage client referrals, where their clients refer family members, friends, or colleagues to the advisor. At the same time, asking clients to make referrals (and having the referred individual actually reach out to the advisor) can be challenging.

Financial Planning 246

Financial Planning Clients Planning Marketing 246

Nerd's Eye View

AUGUST 30, 2024

Nonetheless, given that adding services requires an investment on the part of the firm (often in the form of increased staffing to offer high-touch services and add needed expertise), firms appear to be analyzing the costs and benefits of offering these services in-house versus adding value to clients by referring them to trusted professionals in these (..)

Financial Planner 240

Financial Planner Financial Advisor Retirement Clients 240

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 11, 2024

refer others to) the advisor. After identifying potential clients who might serve as good "active promoters", advisors can take the next step by asking clients whether they'd be willing to refer people in their networks who might benefit from the advisor's services.

Clients 246

Clients Media Accounting Management 246

Nerd's Eye View

MARCH 11, 2024

refer others to) the advisor. After identifying potential clients who might serve as good "active promoters", advisors can take the next step by asking clients whether they'd be willing to refer people in their networks who might benefit from the advisor's services.

Clients 246

Clients Media Accounting Management 246

Calculated Risk

JUNE 29, 2023

Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down (refer to "Updates to GDP"). The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending.

Government 266

Government Economics Investing Investments 266

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 27, 2023

Here is the CES Strike report for October released this morning: This shows a total of 48,100 workers on strike in October, 30,400 new (mostly UAW), and no strikers that returned to work for the October reference period (contains the 12th of the month). This will reduce employment gains in October.

195

195

Calculated Risk

MAY 2, 2024

. • Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed the same number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week from 212,000 in March to 212,000 in April. COVID: As far as the pandemic, the number of patients hospitalized during the reference week in April was around 6,000, down from 10,000 in March.

Manufacturing 195

Manufacturing Numbers 195

Calculated Risk

JUNE 8, 2023

Negative equity, also referred to as underwater or upside-down mortgages, applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth. As of the first quarter of 2023, the quarterly and annual changes in negative equity were: Click on graph for larger image. million homes or 2.1% of all mortgaged properties.

Numbers 363

Numbers Distribution Accounting 363

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 22, 2022

For more information, refer to "Updates to GDP.". The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a downward revision to private inventory investment. Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased 0.8 percentage point from the previous estimate.

Economics 240

Economics Investing Investments 240

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 2, 2022

. • Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed an increase in the number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week (includes the 12th of the month) from 261,000 in July to 245,000 in August. This would usually suggest fewer layoffs in August than in July.

Manufacturing 204

Manufacturing Numbers 204

Calculated Risk

APRIL 4, 2024

. • Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed a larger number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week from 202,000 in February to 212,000 in March. COVID: As far as the pandemic, the number of patients hospitalized during the reference week in March was around 10,000, down from 17,000 in February.

Manufacturing 195

Manufacturing Numbers Economy 195

The Big Picture

JUNE 30, 2023

Consider these gains in light of yesterday’s discussion about belief systems and thought processes , Only this time, instead of referring to anti-vaxxers and insurrectionists, think about all you heard from the fund managers, economists, strategists, and assorted pundits who freely opined on where this market was going to go in 2023.

Numbers 324

Numbers Investments Investing Management 324

Pragmatic Capitalism

SEPTEMBER 19, 2022

While the media has traditionally referred to a recession as 2 quarters of negative GDP the White [ … ] New episode of Three Minute Money here. Is the USA in a recession?

Media 176

Media 176

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

Housing economist Tom Lawler noted this in early 2021 : "As I’ve noted before, the inventory measure in most publicly-released local realtor/MLS reports excludes listings with pending contracts, but that is not the case for many of the reports sent to the NAR (referred to as the “NAR Report!”), Since the middle of last Spring inventory measures excluding (..)

Sales 246

Sales Accounting Marketing Marketing 246

Calculated Risk

APRIL 6, 2023

. • Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed an increase in the number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week (includes the 12th of the month) from 217,000 in February to 247,000 in March. This would usually suggest more layoffs in March than in February.

Manufacturing 219

Manufacturing Numbers Economy 219

The Big Picture

AUGUST 23, 2023

– “ Art ” refers to the fact that this is not a science, and there is no single optimal solution for everybody. – “ Imperfect information ” refers to the fact that no one can possibly know all there is to know at any given moment. There is a lot of nuance packed into those 17 words.

Investing 246

Investing Investments Asset Allocation Healthcare 246

The Big Picture

MARCH 3, 2025

Some people think of “Jordan Rules” as the Detroit Pistons coach Chuck Daly’s playbook of how to stop Jordan and the Bulls, but I am referring to the unwritten rules how the league officiated superstar players, most especially Jordan. If these ideas interest you, then please check it out. _

Economics 306

Economics Assets Clients Investments 306

Nerd's Eye View

AUGUST 23, 2022

In this episode, we talk in-depth about how Shari developed her 5-prong “Maximize the Return on Life” approach with clients and how she and the rest of the advisors in her firm iteratively built over time their “CFO Family Checklist” of planning issues to discuss with clients, how Shari’s firm uses the Diamond Teams approach (..)

Clients 245

Clients Planning Financial Advisor Financial Planning 245

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 1, 2022

He wrote : As I’ve noted before, the inventory measure in most publicly-released local realtor/MLS reports excludes listings with pending contracts, but that is not the case for many of the reports sent to the NAR (referred to as the “NAR Report!”), Since the middle of last Spring inventory measures excluding pending listings have fallen much more (..)

Sales 246

Sales 246

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 8, 2023

Negative equity, also referred to as underwater or upside-down mortgages, applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth. Natural disasters and related risks also play a substantial role in home equity changes.” million homes or 2% of all mortgaged properties. million homes or 1.9%

Numbers 320

Numbers Distribution Accounting Marketing 320

Abnormal Returns

JULY 24, 2023

vulture.com) Every single movie reference in the 'Barbie' movie. (variety.com) Despite what you might have heard 'Oppenheimer' is not over the top. theringer.com) In praise of 'Allan' in the 'Barbie' movie. time.com) Global The European economy was struggling even before the Ukraine war.

Financial Advising 246

Financial Advising Startup Economy Economics 246

Abnormal Returns

NOVEMBER 2, 2022

newsletter.abnormalreturns.com) Mixed media Two questions to ask during a reference check. (abnormalreturns.com) Are you a financial adviser looking for some out-of-the-box thinking? Then check out our weekly e-mail newsletter. hunterwalk.com) Toxic workers are bad for business. klementoninvesting.substack.com).

Portfolio 245

Portfolio Financial Advising Medical Retail 245

Nerd's Eye View

JUNE 13, 2023

We also talk about how Danika’s former career in corporate finance at a number of tech startups inspired her to work with women in tech, as she realized that she understood the financial issues they faced and by being specifically niche-focused, she could create more repeatable processes and it would be easier to scale the business over time, (..)

Financial Advisor 246

Financial Advisor Clients Startup Financial Planning 246

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 4, 2023

Workers on strike during the reference week are not counted as employed in the BLS employment report. Every month, on the Friday before the release of the employment report, the BLS releases the CES Strike Report showing the number of workers on strike during the reference period. Note that the reference week for October is next week.

Numbers 150

Numbers 150

Calculated Risk

MAY 25, 2023

emphasis added Note: When writing "biggest volume gain", Wards is referring to the year-over-year gain since sales were especially weak in May 2022. debt ceiling remains elusive and further spooks consumers. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for May (Red).

Sales 208

Sales Economics Marketing Marketing 208

The Big Picture

APRIL 7, 2023

My frame of reference is the recent pandemic when we all seemed to have become a lot nicer. I can give you a laundry list of all of the ways that we have regressed: I want to avoid current news of indictments and partisan politics,1 and instead suggest one valid issue that is of concern: The loss of community in modern America.

Media 276

Media 276

The Big Picture

MAY 1, 2023

Ray Dalio put it even more starkly, noting that nothing is truly unprecedented , and we tend to use that word to refer to those things we have not experienced in our lifetimes. Investor Amnesia is a wonderful reminder that we tend to forget that which came before.

Financial Market 319

Financial Market Marketing Marketing Investing 319

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 4, 2024

. • Unemployment Claims: The weekly claims report showed a smaller number of initial unemployment claims during the reference week (the 3rd through the 9th in December) from 203,000 in November to 235,000 in December. This suggests fewer layoffs in December compared to November.

Manufacturing 173

Manufacturing Numbers 173

The Big Picture

OCTOBER 24, 2024

I am not referring to extrapolating historical returns forward — “ Assume 8% total return per year on average ” — but rather, here is why markets should return X% versus the consensus of Y% for the next ten consecutive 12-month periods. But cherry-picking friendlier forecasts still relies on forecasts.

Distribution 326

Distribution Economics Portfolio Banking 326

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 13, 2023

The employment data for November has already been gathered since the BLS reference week was November 5th through 11th this year (one of the exceptions for when the reference week doesn't include the 12th). However, there will be some private data to fill the gap.

Government 162

Government Sales Taxes 162

Calculated Risk

MAY 30, 2024

The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending (refer to "Updates to GDP"). The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6

Government 182

Government Economics Investing Investments 182

The Big Picture

AUGUST 10, 2023

There are numerous ways to measure price increases, and I wanted to highlight a specific approach the BLS occasionally references: “The 16% trimmed-mean CPI.” As I have noted before, the entity primarily responsible for rising home prices higher is the Fed.

Distribution 241

Distribution Food 241