Calculated Risk

JANUARY 24, 2025

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.24 million SAAR in December Excerpt: Sales in December (4.24 above the December 2023 sales rate. Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Sales 233

Sales 233

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 26, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January Brief excerpt: The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in January were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 657 thousand. Sales in January 2025 were down 1.1% Sales in January 2025 were down 1.1%

Sales 215

Sales 215

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 23, 2024

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 664 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in November 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 664,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales 264

Sales 264

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 14, 2024

Friday: • At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for October will be released. increase in retail sales. Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. The consensus is for a 0.3% Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 3.5,

Retail 260

Retail Sales Manufacturing 260

Nerd's Eye View

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

In this guest post, Taylor Schulte, founder of Define Financial, an independent RIA based in San Diego, CA, shares his approach to overcoming these challenges by selecting a client niche and implementing a 3-step sales process. This approach can lead to higher conversion rates while driving substantial revenue growth and profitability.

Financial Planning 234

Financial Planning Sales Planning Retirement 234

Calculated Risk

MARCH 20, 2025

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Accelerated 4.2% in February Existing-home sales ascended in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS. For both monthly and year-over-year sales, two major U.S. Year-over-year, sales slid 1.2% (down from 4.31 Sales in February (4.26 million in February.

Sales 166

Sales 166

Calculated Risk

MARCH 20, 2025

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.26 YoY Excerpt: Sales in February (4.26 below the February 2024 sales rate. This breaks the streak of fourth consecutive year-over-year increases in sales. Sales decreased 1.2% million SAAR in February; Down 1.2%

Sales 180

Sales 180

Calculated Risk

MARCH 3, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in January and a Look Ahead to February Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report , I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR.

Sales 162

Sales Marketing Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 14, 2025

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.9% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.2 retail and food services sales for January 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $723.9 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 147

Retail Sales Food 147

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 12, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to October 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). Here is a look at months-of-supply using NSA sales.

Sales 248

Sales Marketing Marketing 248

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 23, 2025

Here is an update to a graph that uses new home sales, single family housing starts and residential investment. (I Note that Residential Investment is quarterly and single-family starts and new home sales are monthly. New home sales peaked in 2020 as pandemic buying soared. Another indicator I like to use is heavy truck sales.

Sales 309

Sales Investing Investments Taxes 309

Calculated Risk

MARCH 2, 2025

All day, Light vehicle sales for February. Sales were at 15.6 The consensus is for an increase in sales to 15.9 At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending. million in January (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). million SAAR.

Sales 162

Sales Manufacturing Marketing Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 23, 2024

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 3.96 million SAAR in October • Housing Starts Decreased to 1.311 million Annual Rate in October • Preliminary 2025 Housing Forecasts • California Home Sales Up 9.5% At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. •

Sales 278

Sales Marketing Marketing 278

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 3, 2025

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End 2024 With Long-Time High December, Q4 SAARs (pay site). This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for December (red). Sales in December (16.80 Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 182

Sales Retail Government 182

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 30, 2024

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Advanced 7.4% in September ending home sales rose in September, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Year-over-year, the Northeast and West registered increases while sales remained steady in the Midwest and South. in September, the highest level since March (78.3).

Sales 173

Sales Economy Marketing Marketing 173

Calculated Risk

MAY 13, 2024

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the April 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR). Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May 2009. Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.

Sales 316

Sales 316

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 24, 2025

Light-Vehicle Sales Maintain Growth; Inventory Resumes Gains (pay content). This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for February (Red). From WardsAuto: February U.S. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. million SAAR, would be up 1.9%

Sales 162

Sales Marketing Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 24, 2025

Light-Vehicle Sales Continue Q4-2024's Growth (pay content). Regardless, sales are tracking to their fourth straight increase in January. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for January (Red). From WardsAuto: Some Letdown but January U.S. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image.

Sales 162

Sales 162

Calculated Risk

MARCH 24, 2025

This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 4.6% year-over-year increase in the 20-city index for January, up from 4.5% YoY in December. Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for January.

147

147

Calculated Risk

APRIL 15, 2024

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 0.7% from February to March (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.0 retail and food services sales for March 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $709.6 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 298

Retail Sales Food 298

Calculated Risk

MARCH 16, 2025

Weekend: Schedule for Week of March 16, 2025 FOMC Preview Monday: At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for February is scheduled to be released. increase in retail sales. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. The consensus is for a 0.7% The consensus is for a reading of -2.0,

Retail 147

Retail Sales Manufacturing Numbers 147

Calculated Risk

MARCH 19, 2025

At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for February from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.21 The consensus is for a reading of 12.0, down from 18.0. The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 4.08 million SAAR for January.

Sales 147

Sales Manufacturing 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 16, 2025

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 retail and food services sales for December 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $729.2 This graph shows retail sales since 1992.

Retail 147

Retail Sales Food 147

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 17, 2025

From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.15 Last year, the NAR reported sales in December 2023 at 3.88

Sales 147

Sales 147

Calculated Risk

JUNE 27, 2023

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 763 thousand. Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963.

Sales 363

Sales 363

Calculated Risk

FEBRUARY 2, 2025

All day, Light vehicle sales for January. Sales were at 16.8 Wards expects vehicle sales to decrease to 15.6 Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in construction spending. million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). million SAAR in January.

Manufacturing 162

Manufacturing Sales Banking Marketing 162

Calculated Risk

JANUARY 26, 2025

At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau. Weekend: Schedule for Week of January 26, 2025 Monday: At 8:30 AM ET, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for December. This is a composite index of other data. The consensus is for 670 thousand SAAR, up from 664 thousand in November.

Sales 147

Sales Manufacturing Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

OCTOBER 24, 2024

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 738 thousand. Sales of new single-family houses in September 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 738,000 , according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales 311

Sales 311

Calculated Risk

NOVEMBER 27, 2024

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Climbed 2.0% in October, Third Straight Month of Gains Pending home sales ascended in October – the third consecutive month of increases – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Homebuying momentum is building after nearly two years of suppressed home sales." All four major U.S.

Sales 147

Sales Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

MAY 22, 2024

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Retreated 1.9% in April Existing-home sales receded in April, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Year-over-year, sales decreased in the Northeast, Midwest and South but increased in the West. Year-over-year, sales fell 1.9% (down from 4.22 Sales in April (4.14

Sales 315

Sales 315

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2024

At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for real GDP at 2.8% annualized, unchanged from the second estimate of 2.8%. Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 2.2, up from -6.0. The consensus is for 3.97

Sales 147

Sales Manufacturing 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2024

From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of Increases Pending home sales gained 2.2% The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings advanced 2.2% Year-over-year, contract signings increased in all four U.S. in November.

Sales 147

Sales Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

JUNE 21, 2024

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Edged Lower by 0.7% in May as Median Sales Price Reached Record High of $419,300 Existing-home sales slightly declined in May as the median sales price climbed to a record high, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Year-over-year, sales waned 2.8% (down from 4.23

Sales 306

Sales 306

Calculated Risk

SEPTEMBER 4, 2024

Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for August: August U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Rise 4%, Ending Two Straight Declines (pay site). Calendar-year 2024 sales through August totaled 10.5 This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) and Wards' estimate for Augus (red).

Sales 288

Sales 288

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 30, 2024

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report , I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR.

Sales 147

Sales Marketing Marketing 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 17, 2024

Unadjusted sales should show a moderately lower YOY % gain, reflecting this Novembers lower business day count compared to last Novembers. Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 5.3% Last year, the NAR reported sales in November 2023 at 3.91

Sales 147

Sales 147

Calculated Risk

DECEMBER 19, 2024

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.15 million SAAR in November Excerpt: The sales rate was above the consensus forecast (but close to housing economist Tom Lawlers estimate ). Sales increased 6.1% Sales increased 6.1% On an NSA basis, sales are down 1.5%

Sales 147

Sales 147